Modelling #transmission of #MERS #coronavirus in #camel populations and the potential impact of animal #vaccination
Abstract Outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans are driven by recurring zoonotic spillover from camels , leading to demand for camel vaccination . With two vaccine candidates shown to reduce infectiousness, there is a need to better understand transmission of MERS-CoV in camels and assess the potential impact of vaccination . To help address this, we used age-stratified seroprevalence data and a combination of modelling methodologies to estimate key epidemiological quantities including MERS-CoV transmissibility in camels and to estimate vaccine impact on infection incidence. Transmissibility was higher in West Asia (R0 interquartile range 7-14) compared to Africa (3-5) and South Asia (2-3), highlighting the need for setting-specific vaccination strategies. Modelling suggested that even if the vaccine only reduced infectiousness rather than susceptibility to infection, vaccinating calves could achieve large reductions in incidence in moderat...