Post-pandemic #changes in #population #immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of #zoonotic #coronaviruses
Abstract Infections caused by endemic viruses , and the vaccines used to control them, often provide cross-protection against related viruses. This cross-protection has the potential to alter the transmission dynamics and likelihood of emergence of novel zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we investigate how changes in population immunity after the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus , termed SARS-CoV-X. We show that sera from patients with different COVID-19 immunological histories possess cross-neutralising antibodies against the spike (S) protein of multiple zoonotic sarbecoviruses . Mathematical simulations using these viruses show a significant reduction in their likelihood of emergence in populations with current levels of SARS-CoV-2 natural and vaccine-derived immunity, with the outcome determined by the extent of cross-protection and the R_0 of the novel virus. We also show that preventative vaccination programs agains...