Modeling Effects of Routine #Screening for Accidental #Lab-Acquired #Infections on #Risk of Potential #Pandemic Pathogen #Escape from High-Biosafety Research Facilities
Abstract Accidental lab–acquired infections (LAIs) risk releasing potential pandemic pathogens (PPPs) from BSL–3/4 facilities . We constructed a stochastic network infectious disease model to simulate how the probability of an outbreak of a pathogen resembling wild–type SARS–COV–2, following an initial LAI would be influenced by test–and–isolate interventions over a 100–day horizon . We varied test frequency (0–7 tests/week), peak sensitivity (50–100%), and isolation delay (0–3 days). For each of 192 parameter combinations, we conducted 1,000 simulations and used logistic regression to quantify how each parameter influenced the likelihood of an outbreak of 50 or more infections. Results indicated that even relatively infrequent routine testing significantly reduced the risk of outbreaks under diverse plausible scenarios, with greater reductions achieved at higher test frequencies. Once-weekly testing reduced outbreak risk by 52% under optimistic assumptions (80% sensitivity, 1–day dela...