Rapid #risk #assessment: #Chikungunya virus disease, #Global (WHO, 24 April 2026, v2, summary)

{Summary)

Overall Risk statement

-- This rapid risk assessment aims to assess the overall public health risk posed by chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission in 2026 at the global level. 

-- It considers the potential risk to human health, the likelihood of geographical spread, limitations in prevention and control capacities, and the influence of regional seasonal patterns that favour Aedes mosquito activity, which could drive outbreaks during the 2026 transmission season. 

-- Chikungunya virus poses a significant and growing global health risk due to large and widespread regional outbreaks in recent years, lack of specific treatment, limited use of vaccine, and climate- and conveyance-driven mosquito range expansion, with increasing international travel. 

-- While mortality remains relatively low, the CHIKV infection can cause prolonged arthritis with disability as well as severe illness in some patients.

-- In 2025, an overall of 502 264 CHIKV disease cases including 208 335 confirmed cases, and 186 deaths were reported globally from 41 countries and territories, including autochthonous and imported cases in travellers. 

-- From 1 January to 31 March 2026, Chikungunya transmission was reported by 18 countries, with the vast majority of cases occurring in the Region of the Americas. 

-- Brazil and Bolivia account for 87% of cases in the Region; together with Argentina, Suriname, and Cuba, these five countries represent approximately 99% of reported cases. 

-- The European Region reported the second-highest number of cases, predominantly reported from French overseas departments, particularly Mayotte and La Réunion. 

-- Global aggregation is limited due to incomplete reporting.

-- With the rainy season about to begin in many regions in the coming months, cases of CHIKV are expected to rise, as rainfall events create favourable conditions for Aedes mosquito breeding and increase the risk of CHIKV transmission, including in previously unaffected areas. 

-- Transmission dynamics will also be impacted by the population immunity acquired from outbreaks in recent years. 

-- Peak CHIKV transmission months in the respective WHO regions include:

• Southeast Asia & Western Pacific: May–October

• Americas: May–November (Northern hemisphere)/November–March (Southern hemisphere)

• Continental Europe: June–September (main season) (transmission in overseas departments aligns with climatic conditions within their geographic location/proximity)

• Africa & Eastern Mediterranean: During/after local rainy seasons (varies by country)

-- The global public health risk posed by CHIKV transmission is assessed as moderate. 

-- This takes into account the widespread transmission and outbreaks across multiple WHO regions in 2025, which continued into early 2026, including in areas with previously low or no transmission. 

-- Ongoing transmission in parts of the Indian Ocean region, such as Seychelles, Mauritius and Mayotte demonstrates continued regional activity. 

-- The resurgence and emergence of cases in new geographic areas are facilitated by the presence of competent Aedes mosquito vectors, limited population immunity, favorable environmental conditions, and increased human mobility coupled with under-performing/disrupted health systems, particularly in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable countries- leading to poor control measures.

-- The uneven distribution of cases across regions complicates the interpretation of a global trend but highlights significant localized transmission. 

-- Prevention and control capacities remain challenged by gaps in surveillance, equitable access to quality-assured diagnostics and laboratory confirmation, healthcare infrastructure, and sustained vector surveillance and control management.

(...)

Source: 

Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-rapid-risk-assessment---chikungunya-virus-disease--global-v.2

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Retrospective #Phylogenetic Analysis of #Mayaro Virus, French #Guiana, 1996–2024

 

Abstract

We conducted a retrospective phylogenetic analysis of Mayaro virus (MAYV) detected in French Guiana during 1996–2024. Analysis revealed circulation of MAYV genotype D sublineage 2 and suggested introduction from Brazil and spread to Haiti and Venezuela. Phylogenetic findings support endemic circulation and reinforce the need for MAYV surveillance in the region.

Source: 

Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/32/5/25-1435_article

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#Surveillance and #control efficacy of the Bergerac, #France, 2025 #chikungunya #outbreak

 

Abstract

The spread of the highly invasive mosquito, Aedes albopictus, across Europe, combined with climate change and human travel and trade, has led to new epidemic threats from mosquito-borne viruses, most significantly dengue and chikungunya, which are increasing in frequency and magnitude. In 2025, mainland France has seen a record number of autochthonous cases and outbreaks of chikungunya, spread across multiple locations, primarily introduced by travellers from the French Overseas Territory of La Réunion which is experiencing severe chikungunya outbreaks. Here, we describe one of the largest French outbreaks and subsequent control measures in the city of Bergerac, Dordogne, which resulted in 102 cases as of 5th November 2025. We apply a climate-driven mathematical model for Ae. albopictus and chikungunya virus transmission to the Bergerac 2025 outbreaks, comparing outputs to case data. The model suggests that the initial control measures in the first four weeks after the discovery of the outbreak, limited in their intervention radius and intensity, had little effect on reducing the number of cases, given the high incidence and the wide geographic extent of viral circulation. However, subsequent more widespread and intense control efforts, combined with likely increased public awareness, substantially reduced case numbers. These findings underscore the need to tailor control measures to intensity and scale of viral circulation combined with effective preventive and proactive arbovirus surveillance. Adulticides combined with public awareness campaigns can be effective for public health protection and are an important part of mitigating against the risk of Aedes-borne arboviruses and the ongoing outbreaks in mainland France.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014184

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Susceptibility of wild and domestic #songbirds to #Usutu virus

Abstract

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging mosquito-borne orthoflavivirus that can cause neuroinvasive disease in humans and wild birds. USUV clusters phylogenetically within the Japanese encephalitis virus serocomplex, sharing antigenic and ecological similarity with West Nile virus (WNV). USUV is maintained in an enzootic cycle primarily involving passerine birds and Culex spp. mosquitoes. USUV was first isolated in South Africa in 1959 and has since spread throughout Africa and Europe, causing mortality and disease in several wild bird populations, specifically the Eurasian blackbird (Turdus merula). To understand transmission and pathogenesis of USUV in birds, we sought to develop passerine bird models of infection using wild-caught house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus), wild-caught American robins (Turdus migratorius), domestic canaries (Serinus canaria domestica), and captive-bred zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). Birds were inoculated with one or two isolates of USUV and viremia was measured. House finches, American robins, and canaries were susceptible to USUV, with 100% of inoculated birds developing viremia. These avian species reach viremias that have the potential to infect Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. Clinical disease and histopathological evidence of disease were severe in American robins and moderate to severe in canaries, with limited disease in house finches. However, zebra finches inoculated with one isolate of USUV did not develop detectable viremia. These findings provide additional tools for studying USUV enzootic transmission and pathogenesis in passerine birds.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014213

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#Genomic characterisation of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (#CCHFV) in #Tajikistan identifies a novel reassortant virus

 

Abstract

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is an important human tick-borne pathogen, able to cause severe haemorrhagic fever. CCHFV is endemic in Tajikistan, which records between 5–38 cases of CCHF a year from southern regions. Molecular surveillance of CCHFV is crucial to implement effective prevention and control strategies, understand viral evolution, study transmission dynamics, and develop effective diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. While the presence of Asia-1 and Asia-2 genotypes has been previously reported, only two historical samples from Tajikistan have been fully sequenced. In this study we developed and applied a genotype IV-specific tiling PCR enrichment approach recovering 52 CCHFV genome segment sequences from clinical and Hyalomma tick samples collected between 2017–2023. Most sequences belonged to the Asia-2 genotype, but one virus exhibited an Asia-1 S segment combined with Asia-2 M and L segments, representing the first evidence of such viral reassortment event in Tajikistan.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014204

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#Chikungunya fever: #Brazil is intensifying its response to address health emergency in Dourados (MoH, April 4 '26)

 

{Edited}

The Brazilian government has intensified its response to the emergency situation in Dourados (MS), given the increase in cases of chikungunya, with the mobilization of an interministerial task force that integrates actions in health, assistance, civil defense, and logistical support in the territory. The emergency affects the population of the municipality, with a greater impact on indigenous communities.

As a reinforcement to the response already underway, the Federal Government has guaranteed more than R$ 3.1 million in emergency resources for the municipality. 

Of this total, R$ 1.3 million , authorized by the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development (MIDR) in a decree published this Thursday (2), will be allocated to relief and humanitarian assistance actions, such as direct support to the population and local response structures. 

Also this Thursday, the National Secretariat for Civil Protection and Defense approved a work plan worth R$ 974,100 for restoration actions, including urban cleaning, waste removal and disposal in a licensed sanitary landfill, with resources to be transferred directly to the municipality.

The Ministry of Health has already transferred R$ 855,300 to the municipality to cover the costs of surveillance, assistance, and control actions related to chikungunya in the region.

The federal response has been underway since mid-March, coordinated by the Ministry of Health, which mobilized the National Health System (SUS) Task Force , reinforced healthcare teams, and intensified vector surveillance and control actions across the territory. 

The operation includes actively searching for cases, conducting home visits, eliminating [mosquitoes] breeding sites, and expanding services to the population, with special attention to the most vulnerable areas, including indigenous territories.

The National Health System Task Force has 40 mobilized professionals , with 26 currently working directly, and has already carried out 1,288 clinical consultations , 81 transfers for medium and high complexity care, and 225 home visits . 

The teams operate both in indigenous territories and in the municipalities of Dourados and Itaporã, supporting local management, together with the Mato Grosso do Sul State Health Secretariat, reorganizing care flows, expanding active case finding, and guaranteeing assistance, health education, and psychosocial care.

Fiocruz mobilized the shipment of pain medication, reinforcing its ability to meet local demand due to the epidemic.

To expand response capacity, the Ministry of Health authorized the emergency hiring of 50 Endemic Disease Control Agents (ACEs). Of these, 20 have already been trained and will enter the field this Friday (3), while another 30 will begin training to work from Monday (6).

In the field of vector control, actions were intensified with the mobilization of approximately 95 professionals , including Community Health Agents and Indigenous Sanitation Agents (AISAN). Between March 9 and 16, 4,319 properties were inspected , of which 2,173 received treatment , identifying 1,004 breeding sites of the Aedes aegypti mosquito , mainly in water storage containers, solid waste, and tires.

Actions were also taken to control the spread of insecticide using ultra-low volume (ULV) methods, including three cycles of vehicle-mounted ULV application and backpack spraying in 43 high-traffic areas, such as schools and health units. The volunteer effort to remove breeding sites mobilized approximately 100 people and resulted in the collection of four dump truckloads of waste.

Vector control will be reinforced with support from the Ministry of Defense. Currently, 40 Brazilian Army soldiers and five vehicles are already in the area , expanding the operational capacity of the mosquito control efforts.

The Ministry of Health also sent 1,000 Larvicide Dissemination Stations (LDSs). Of the first 300 units, 150 have already been installed in priority neighborhoods, with expansion planned for other regions of the municipality.

Through Funai (National Indian Foundation), actions are also underway to provide direct support to indigenous communities in Dourados, focusing on food security and access to water. 

The distribution of 6,000 food baskets is planned , in three stages between April and June, in coordination with the Ministry of Social Development (MDS), the National Supply Company (Conab), the Special Secretariat for Indigenous Health (Sesai), and Civil Defense. The expansion of the water supply system in the Jaguapiru and Bororó villages has also been authorized to guarantee access to potable water and improve the sanitary conditions of the indigenous communities.

Epidemiological scenario

The most recent epidemiological surveillance data, referring to April 2nd, indicates that the region has registered 2,812 notifications of chikungunya, with 1,198 confirmed, 430 discarded, and 1,184 still under investigation. The highest concentration of cases is in indigenous villages, where 822 cases were confirmed—68.6% of the total confirmations in the region. 

So far, five deaths have been confirmed in Dourados, all among the indigenous population of the municipality.

To strengthen the coordination of actions, the Ministry of Health established a Situation Room in Brasília on March 25th, with permanent meetings to monitor the situation and integrate decisions between technical teams and managers.

Within the indigenous territory, the work is carried out in a coordinated manner between the Ministries of Health, Indigenous Peoples, Integration and Regional Development, Defense, Social Development, Funai (National Indian Foundation), and the Special Indigenous Health District of Mato Grosso do Sul (DSEI-MS), which has 210 Indigenous Health Agents (AIS) and 150 Indigenous Sanitation Agents (Aisan), in addition to logistical support with 91 pickup trucks, 6 vans, and 1 truck.

The actions also include training for health professionals in the municipal and indigenous networks, aligning clinical protocols for diagnosis and proper management of the disease, as well as health education activities in schools and communities. There are also plans to send prevention messages via WhatsApp to more than 234,000 residents , in Portuguese and with translation into indigenous languages.

The response also includes improving the quality of care, with the implementation of the national chikungunya protocol and training of teams for early identification of severe cases and appropriate clinical management.

Source: 

Link: https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/2026/abril/governo-do-brasil-intensifica-resposta-integrada-e-mobiliza-forca-tarefa-para-enfrentar-emergencia-sanitaria-em-dourados-ms-2

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#Oropouche virus #outbreaks in northeast #Brazil between 2024–25 are characterized by sustained #transmission and spread to newly affected areas

 

Abstract

Oropouche virus (OROV) has recently expanded in Brazil, establishing transmission in non-endemic regions. This study aims to integrate epidemiological and molecular data to investigate OROV spread in Northeast (NE) Brazil between 2024 and 2025. OROV cases were analyzed regarding ecological risk factors and geographical clustering. Additionally, we sequenced 65 new OROV genomes from the Northeast states of Pernambuco, Paraíba, and Sergipe to infer the virus’s spatiotemporal dynamics in NE Brazil. A total of 2,806 confirmed cases were reported between March 2024 and April 2025, affecting 170 municipalities across eight out of nine NE states, with highly heterogeneous incidence. An ecological shift was observed, with OROV transmission moving from Atlantic Forest areas in 2024 to humid Caatinga zones in 2025. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed multiple independent viral introductions in Northeast in 2024, including two in Pernambuco. The first, originating from the central Amazonas, became the main driver of local transmission and subsequently spread to Sergipe and Paraíba, causing outbreaks in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The second introduction remained restricted within Pernambuco. While several Northeast municipalities reported high OROV incidence, Jaqueira (Pernambuco) emerged as a key hub for regional viral spread. OROV showed sustained transmission in the region over a two-year period, characterized by marked spatiotemporal displacement consistent with short-lived, rapidly spreading outbreaks, followed by cryptic transmission and subsequent dissemination to new areas, ultimately driving renewed intense outbreaks.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014171

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Mapping #global emergence of #pathogens with #epidemic and #pandemic #potential to inform and accelerate pandemic #prevention, #preparedness, readiness and response

 

Abstract

Introduction 

Increasing occurrence of epidemics and pandemics and concurrent emergence of different pathogens calls for multi-sectoral, multi-pathogen preparedness actions. Data on various factors that drive emergence of diverse pathogens can inform evidence-based preparedness by identifying geographies at-risk. When leveraging evidence within a One Health approach, multiple pathogens can be addressed simultaneously, thereby strengthening countries pandemic preparedness efforts. 

Methods 

For seventeen priority pathogens (avian influenza viruses, zoonotic coronaviruses including COVID-19, hemorrhagic fever viruses including Ebola, Henipaviruses, and arboviruses including yellow fever and Zika), we identified global evidence on animal reservoirs, vectors, environmental suitability, and reported human cases. We discriminated geospatially recorded pathogen detections from a background sample and constructed maps using these datasets to generate an evidence-based assessment of emergence risk globally. 

Results 

Seventeen pathogen-specific assessments were combined into a global composite map. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have evidence supporting emergence risk for the greatest number of pathogens (included areas at-risk of all pathogens) and scored highest when strength-of-evidence weightings were factored. The Americas had the lowest tally of considered pathogens. Environmental suitability analyses received the highest weights, reservoir ranges the lowest. 

Discussion 

Preparedness and readiness must consider the range of global biological threats. Our methodology is capable of incorporating changing evidence on emergence potential for multiple pathogens to identify geographies at higher risk with different pathogen combinations. Our maps can contribute to existing decision-support structures, guiding shared interventions and strategic allocation of resources for spillover prevention and pandemic preparedness, thereby enhancing local response capacities applying a multidisciplinary approach.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This work was concluded in 2024 and supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) before January 22, 2025, the Germany Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Government of France.

Source: 

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.20.26347940v1

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#OneHealth Longitudinal Study #Protocol on #Zoonotic and Vector-Borne #Diseases in Battambang province, #Cambodia: An Inter-Sectoral Approach

 

Abstract

Background 

Tropical low – and middle –income countries are highly vulnerable to zoonoses and vector-borne diseases, with risks amplified by climatic events, environmental change, and limited surveillance capacity. Cambodia is particularly exposed due to its ecological diversity, seasonal flooding, and rapidly changing land use. Globally, however, field based One Health approaches remain under –implemented, limiting practical evidence on how to address these complex threats. 

Methods 

This protocol describes a longitudinal One Health study conducted in three villages of Battambang province, Cambodia, designed to investigate the prevalence and transmission dynamics of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens at the human –animal –environment interface. The study examines how vector density, diversity, and pathogen circulation are influenced by hydrological variation and seasonality, and assesses the sociodemographic, behavioral, and environmental factors shaping transmission. Integrated data will be collected through serological and molecular analyses in humans and animals, environmental sampling, and entomological surveillance, enabling cross-compartmental and spatiotemporal analyses. 

Expected Results 

The study will generate integrated, cross –sectoral data to characterize pathogen exposure patterns, identify high –risk populations and practices, and inform targeted public health, veterinary, and environmental interventions. Conclusions By sharing this protocol, the work addresses a global methodological gap in operationalizing One Health in the field and supports the development of integrated surveillance strategies in climate-sensitive, resource-limited settings.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

The study received funding from the French Development Agency (AFD) through the PREACT-AFRICAM Program and from the Fondation Simone et Cino del Duca of Institut de France.

Source: 

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.14.26347916v1

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#Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Extra-Amazonian #Oropouche #Outbreak Areas of Minas Gerais, #Brazil: #Ecological Insights into Virus Transmission

 

Abstract

Oropouche fever (OF), caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), has expanded beyond its Amazonian range into Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, raising concern about transmission in extra-Amazonian Atlantic Forest landscapes. Critical gaps persist regarding Culicoides vector communities, anthropophily, and climate-sensitive transmission risk in these newly affected regions. We conducted targeted entomological surveys outbreak-driven by human OF cases, standardized across five MG communities using CDC light traps and Protected Human Attraction (PHA) to characterize Culicoides composition. Females of Culicoides underwent RT-qPCR for OROV (n = 819) and physiological assessment (n = 312). We developed an entomological alert framework that integrates blood-fed abundance, minimum infection rate (MIR) upper confidence bounds, and environmental drivers (i.e., mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) via generalized additive mixed models, which explained 68% of the variability in Culicoides abundance and the alert index across communities. We collected 1171 Culicoides individuals representing five species (C. leopoldoi, C. paraensis, C. pusillus, C. foxi, and C. limai). C. leopoldoi (79.1%) and C. paraensis (20.3%) were the predominant species; notably, C. paraensis is recognized as the primary vector of OROV in the Americas. C. paraensis was documented for the first time in all five outbreak areas and dominated PHA captures (90%), suggesting anthropophily. Although no specimens tested OROV-positive (consistent with expected field infection rates of 0.01–1%), MIR upper bounds reached 132/1000 in low-sample settings and humidity and temperature strongly modulated abundance. This operational baseline and alert index transform virologically negative, sparse surveillance data into prioritized targets for intensified sampling and vector control during early, low-prevalence phases, when containment of OROV’s extra-Amazonian spread is still achievable.

Source: 

Link: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/18/3/361

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Association of avian #biodiversity and #WNV circulation in #Culex mosquitoes in Emilia-Romagna, #Italy

 

Abstract

Background

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus maintained in a transmission cycle between Culex mosquitoes and birds, occasionally spilling over into humans. The impact of avian biodiversity on WNV circulation remains debated, with studies reporting both negative and positive correlations (dilution and amplification effects respectively) across different settings. In Europe, this relationship remains largely unexplored, particularly in regions with high WNV transmission, such as Emilia-Romagna in Northern Italy.

Methods

We explored the association between avian biodiversity and WNV circulation in Culex mosquitoes in Emilia-Romagna using 11 years (2013–2023) of entomological surveillance data paired with two avian data sources. We calculated avian biodiversity indices (Shannon’s, Simpson’s, and Chao2) from observation records from the Farmland Bird Index project and applied linear regression models to assess their relationship with WNV detection frequency. Moreover, we used Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models and gridded weekly avian abundance estimates from the eBird project to analyse the associations between avian species richness indices and WNV transmission risk quantified by vector index (VI) at 68 geolocated mosquito traps across the region.

Results

We observed consistent negative associations between WNV detection frequency in the Culex population and avian biodiversity indices, supporting the dilution effect hypothesis (DEH). We found that non-passerine species richness was negatively associated with VI while passerine species richness showed a positive association after adjusting for covariates and spatial random effects. These findings suggest that passerines may amplify WNV transmission, whereas the presence of non-passerine species is associated with reductions in WNV circulation.

Significance

This study provides the first empirical evidence supporting the DEH for WNV in Europe. These findings have important implications for biodiversity conservation and integrated public health surveillance activities across Europe.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014076

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#Oropouche virus infects primary #human #intestinal #organoids and is inhibited by type I and III interferon treatment

 

ABSTRACT

Oropouche virus (OROV), a neglected arbovirus, has historically been considered a self-limiting infection associated with febrile illness. However, the recent surge in cases since late 2023 has been marked by atypical outcomes, highlighting its underestimated clinical impact. Gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea have also been reported, but the prevalence and mechanistic insight remain largely elusive. Here, through a meta-analysis of 12 identified clinical studies, we revealed a pooled prevalence of diarrhea as 15% (95% CI, 10%–20%) among the Oropouche patient population. In primary human intestinal organoid-based experimental models, we demonstrated productive infection by both a recent patient isolate (OROV-2024) and a historical strain (Be An19991). This is shown by the accumulation of intracellular OROV RNA, release of infectious particles, and immunostaining of OROV glycoprotein Gc. Interestingly, OROV infection mildly triggered the expression of type III interferons, but this endogenous response was insufficient to limit viral replication. In contrast, exogenous treatment with type I and III interferons strongly inhibited OROV replication, with interferon-alpha completely abolishing infectious virus production. Together, these results suggest the human intestine as a potential target organ for OROV infection and highlight interferons as potential therapeutic candidates.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/mbio.03003-25?af=R

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Increased #Mortality Rates During the 2025 #Chikungunya #Epidemic in #Réunion Island

 

Abstract

Background: 

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has historically been regarded as a low-fatality infection; however, growing evidence from diverse study designs demonstrated a substantial mortality burden during large-scale epidemics. In 2025, Réunion Island experienced a major CHIKV outbreak, raising renewed concerns about its fatal impact. 

Methods: 

We conducted an ecological time-series analysis of all-cause mortality during the 2025 chikungunya epidemic. Expected deaths were estimated using two complementary approaches: (i) a baseline based on age-specific mean mortality rates from the same calendar months in the post-pandemic period and (ii) long-term Poisson regression models using a log-link function and population offset, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and expected deaths during periods when observed mortality significantly exceeded the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval. 

Results: 

Observed mortality exceeded the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) limit for three consecutive months, coinciding with the epidemic curve and resulting in an estimated 208 excess deaths. These deaths were concentrated among older adults, peaking in April 2025 with a mortality rate ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.22–1.47; p < 0.001). Among older adults, the age-specific excess mortality rate reached 145.3 per 100,000 (95% CI: 125.5–165.0) with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.4%, resulting in an overall population excess mortality rate of 23.2 per 100,000 and a total CFR of 0.4%. The number of deaths identified through routine surveillance was substantially lower than our estimates, highlighting a significant discrepancy between reported and excess chikungunya-associated mortality. 

Conclusions: 

Chikungunya epidemics are consistently associated with substantial underrecognized mortality worldwide. Routine surveillance relying solely on laboratory confirmation underestimates the true burden of the disease. Integrating excess mortality analysis, strengthening diagnostic and postmortem investigations, and implementing timely mitigation measures are essential to accurately assess and reduce preventable deaths during future CHIKV outbreaks.

Source: 

Link: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/18/2/180

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Detection of #LaCrosse Virus #RNA in Clinical #Specimens Obtained from #Children with La Crosse Infection

 

Highlights

• Viremia in children with La Crosse Virus infection is transient; viral RNA was detected in only 3.2% of sera

• Detection of La Crosse Virus RNA in respiratory samples is slightly higher at 21.7% and may reflect the temporal distribution of the virus after infection

• NAAT has limited utility in routine diagnosis of La Crosse Virus encephalitis in children but may still be useful in cases with delayed seroconversion

Abstract

Background

La Crosse virus (LACV), a member of family Peribunyaviridae, genus Orthobunyavirus, is the leading cause of neuroinvasive arboviral infection in children in the United States. Diagnosis relies on detecting specific antibodies (IgG or IgM), a 4-fold titer rise or seroconversion, in patients with compatible presentations. NAAT used for LACV detection has largely been limited to mosquito, animal models or postmortem brain tissue. There is a lack of data on the performance of NAATs in clinical specimens from living patients.

Methods

Children who had positive arbovirus serology tests and a diagnosis of LACV encephalitis were identified. Remnant specimens including plasma, serum, CSF, throat swab (THT) or nasopharyngeal sample (NP) submitted to the laboratory for other diagnostic testing were retrieved and tested with LACV-PCR. Medical records were reviewed for demographics, presenting symptoms and test results.

Results

From June 2015 to October 2021, 61 patients had remnant specimens available for LACV-PCR and were included in this study. A total of 179 clinical specimens from these patients were tested, including 64 sera, 31 plasma, 33 CSF, 23 THT and 28 NP. Ten (5.3%) samples collected from 8 (13.1%) unique patients were positive for LACV RNA. The positive rates were 3.2%, 0, 6.5%, 3.5% and 21.7% for sera, plasma, CSF, NP and THT respectively.

Conclusion

There is limited utility of NAATs for diagnosis of LACV infection. NAATs may be useful in cases with delayed seroconversion or in immunocompromised individuals.

Source: 

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1386653226000120?dgcid=rss_sd_all

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Serological and viral #prevalence of #Oropouche virus (OROV): A systematic review and meta-analysis from 2000–24 including #human, #animal, and #vector #surveillance studies

 

Abstract

Background

Oropouche virus (OROV) is an emerging arbovirus primarily transmitted by biting midges and is increasingly recognized as a public health threat in Central and South America. With over 11,000 confirmed cases reported in 2024, a ten-fold increase from the previous year, its transmission dynamics and true burden remain poorly understood due to diagnostic challenges and fragmented surveillance systems.

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) synthesizes OROV prevalence data in humans and summarizes the available data for vectors and animal hosts sampled between 2000 and 2024 to provide updated estimates and identify key surveillance gaps.

Methods

We systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, Medline, and LILACS for OROV seroprevalence and viral prevalence studies in human, insect, and animal populations, published up to September 12, 2024. The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024551000). Studies were extracted in duplicate, and data were meta-analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Risk of bias was appraised using a modified Joanna Briggs Institute checklist.

Results

We included 71 articles reporting serological or viral prevalence of OROV across nine countries. Between 2000–2024, pooled human seroprevalence among individuals with febrile illness or suspected of Oropouche infection was 12.6% [95% CI 5.3-26.9%] across four South American countries and seroprevalence of 1.1% [95% CI 0.5-2.3%] was observed in asymptomatic groups. Viral prevalence among individuals with febrile illness or suspected of Oropouche infection was 1.5% [0.8-3.0%] across seven South American countries and Haiti. Most studies used convenience sampling and RT-PCR or hemagglutination assays. In vector populations, positive OROV prevalence in Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus was reported in two of 18 sources, while 10.0% and 7.5% animal host prevalence was reported in dogs and cattle, respectively. We found high risk of bias in 11.3% of studies in our critical appraisal, with most animal, human, and vector studies falling in the moderate risk of bias range.

Conclusions

Despite rising numbers of OROV reported cases, prevalence estimates remain limited by sparse surveillance and variable methodology. This review highlights the urgent need for standardized serological assays, community-based studies, and expanded surveillance in animal and vector reservoirs. A One Health approach is essential to monitor OROV transmission and inform regional preparedness efforts.

Source: 

Link: https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0013340

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Rapid #risk #assessment, acute event of potential public health concern: #Chikungunya virus disease, #Global (#WHO, Dec. 29 '25, summary)

 

Overall Risk statement

-- This RRA aims to assess the overall public health risk at the global level posed by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission during 2025, considering the criteria of potential risk for human health, the risk of geographical spread, and the risk of insufficient control capacities with available resources, and the implications for the 2026 transmission season. 

-- Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant and growing global health risk due to large and widespread regional outbreaks in recent years, climate-driven mosquito expansion, lack of specific treatment, and increasing international travel. 

-- While mortality remains relatively low, the CHIKV infection can cause prolonged arthritis with disability as well as  severe illness in some patients. 

-- From 1 January to 10 December 2025, 502 264 CHIKV disease cases including  208 335 confirmed cases, and 186 CHIKV deaths, were reported globally. 

-- While certain WHO Regions are reporting lower case numbers compared to 2024, others are experiencing marked increases, furthermore some countries are seeing an emergence of chikungunya in previously unaffected populations. 

-- This heterogeneity in regional trends complicates the interpretation of the global situation. 

-- The data suggest localized resurgence or emergence in specific geographic areas. 

-- The region of the Americas has reported the highest number of confirmed cases followed by the European region (comprised of cases reported predominantly from French Overseas Departments in the Indian Ocean). 

-- Further, the potential for geographic spread remains substantial given that chikungunya can be introduced into new areas by infected travellers where local transmission may be established in the presence of competent Aedes mosquito, a susceptible population and favorable climatic and ecological conditions.  

-- The global public health risk posed by CHIKV transmission is assessed as moderate, driven by widespread outbreaks across multiple WHO regions during the 2025 season including areas with previously low or no transmission. 

-- The resurgence and emergence of cases in new geographic areas are facilitated by the presence of competent Aedes mosquito vectors, limited population immunity, favorable environmental conditions, and increased human mobility. 

-- The uneven distribution of cases complicates global interpretation, but highlights significant localized transmission. 

-- Control capacities remain challenged by gaps in surveillance, diagnostic access, healthcare infrastructure, and sustainable vector surveillance and control.  

-- Given the ongoing outbreaks reported globally in 2025, the potential for further spread in 2026 cannot be ruled out. 

(...)

Source: 

Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-rapid-risk-assessment---chikungunya-virus--global-v.1

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The #epidemiology of #chikungunya virus in #Brazil and the potential #impact of #vaccines: a mathematical modelling study

 

Summary

Background

The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) vaccine is now licensed in Brazil, the country that reports the most cases of CHIKV globally; however, the optimal use of the vaccine remains unclear owing to a poor understanding of CHIKV epidemiology and population immunity. We aimed to combine the distribution of cases and deaths reported since 2014 with seroprevalence studies to inform mathematical models that estimate the underlying rates of infection by state and year, and the underlying patterns of disease and death by age and sex.

Methods

We quantified the annual CHIKV infection and disease burden between 2014 and 2024 in each of the 27 federative units of Brazil using a mathematical model in a Bayesian framework that integrated serological surveys (n=12) and confirmed CHIKV disease cases (n=488 234) and CHIKV deaths (n=1719) reported between January, 2014, and September, 2024. Using this base, we estimated the potential impact of a vaccine over the period 2025–29 had the population been vaccinated before the 2025 season, evaluating different roll-out strategies.

Findings

We found that 18·3% (95% credible interval 16·5–20·3) of the Brazilian population has been infected since 2014, with the highest risk concentrated in the northeast and southeast. Overall, 1·13% (1·07–1·19) of infections were detected by surveillance systems, with an increasing probability of symptoms with age and greater risk of symptoms in females. Vaccinating 40% of the population older than 12 years (73 million doses), and assuming a vaccine efficacy of 70% against infection and 95% against disease, would avert up to 1·6 million (0·5–3) cases and 198 (61–359) deaths over the next 5 years.

Interpretation

Despite widespread circulation, most of Brazil remains susceptible to infection. CHIKV vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce disease burden.

Funding

CEPI.

Source: 

Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00605-X/fulltext?rss=yes

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Rift Valley #fever [#RVFV] - #Mauritania and #Senegal (#WHO, D.O.N., Nov. 6 '25)

 

Situation at a glance

Between 20 September and 30 October 2025, a total of 404 confirmed human cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF), including 42 deaths, were reported by national health authorities in two West African countries: Mauritania and Senegal. 

RVF is a zoonotic disease, which mainly affects animals, but can also infect humans. 

The majority of human infections result from contact with the blood or organs of infected animals, but human infections have also resulted from the bites of infected mosquitoes. 

To date, no human-to-human transmission of RVF has been documented. 

While RVF often leads to severe illness in animals, its impact in humans varies, ranging from mild flu-like symptoms to severe hemorrhagic fever that can be fatal. 

RVF is endemic in both countries, where recurrent outbreaks have been previously reported in both livestock and humans. 

The risk of further spread remains high, especially with environmental conditions favorable to the proliferation of mosquitoes, periods of heavy rains and increased mosquito activity, as well as movements of livestock within country and towards Mali and Gambia for grazing and trade. 

The response to RVF outbreaks requires a One Health approach, based on enhanced collaboration between the human health, animal health and environmental sectors, in both countries and at the regional level. 

WHO, in collaboration with the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), currently assesses the overall risk as high at the national levels, moderate at the regional level and low at the global level.

(...)

Source: World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON584

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#Kyasanur Forest #disease: an emerging #arboviral #threat

 

Summary

Kyasanur Forest disease is a neglected tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever endemic to India's Western Ghats, caused by the Kyasanur Forest disease virus, a flavivirus transmitted by Haemaphysalis spinigera ticks. The virus circulates in a sylvatic cycle among monkeys, rodents, shrews, birds, and ixodid ticks, and is transmitted to humans incidentally via tick bites. Since its discovery in 1957 in Karnataka, Kyasanur Forest disease has spread to other Indian states, driven by deforestation, forest fragmentation, and increased human incursion into wildlife habitats. Clinically, the disease manifests in a biphasic pattern, with haemorrhagic and neurotropic presentations. Although a formalin-inactivated vaccine is available, its efficacy is not promising, and no antivirals have been approved to date. Field reports indicate that mortality in monkeys might serve as an early indicator of forthcoming human outbreaks. The transmission dynamics of Kyasanur Forest disease, diagnostic gap, and ecological complexities present substantial public health challenges. In this Review, we provide an update on Kyasanur Forest disease virus, covering its epidemiology, transmission dynamics, molecular virology, virus–host interactions, immunological responses, animal models, and potential antiviral therapies and vaccines.

Source: Lancet Infectious Diseases, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00589-4/abstract?rss=yes

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#Italy, #WNV & #USUV Integrated #Surveillance - Weekly Bulletin No. 16 - 30 October 2025 (Summary)

 

{Summary}

-- During current epidemiological week (from 23 to 29 Oct. 2025), two new human cases of infection with West Nile Virus have been reported. 

-- The cumulative number of confirmed cases this season so far rose to 773 (they were 771 last week), of these: 

- 367 were West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND): 17 in Piedmont, 56 Lombardy, 35 Veneto, 4 Friuli-Venezia Giulia, 1 Liguria, 30 Emilia-Romagna, 11 Tuscany, 1 Marche, 87 Latium, 2 Molise, 83 Campania, 2 Apulia, 2 Basilicata, 5 Calabria, 3 Sicily, 28 Sardinia, 

- 56 were asymptomatic cases detected in blood donors, 

- 339 were West Nile Fever cases (of which: 1 imported from Kenya, 1  from Egypt and 1 from Maldives), 

- 3 asymptomatic cases, 

- 8 unspecified cases. 

-- Among confirmed cases, 72 fatalities have been recorded: 7 in Piedmont, 9 Lombardy, 1 Veneto, 2 Emilia-Romagna, 1 Marche, 19 Latium, 29 Campania, 2 Calabria, 1 Sicily, 1 Sardinia. 

- The Case-Fatality Rate in WNND cases is 19.6% (it was 20% in 2018, 14% in 2024). 

-- Since the start of the epidemic season, 11 confirmed human cases of Usutu virus infection were reported: 2 in Piedmont, 3 Lombardy, 2 Veneto, 1 Tuscany, 3 Latium.

(...)

Source: High Institute of Health, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/westnile/bollettino/Bollettino_WND_2025_16.pdf

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