Abstract
Introduction
Increasing occurrence of epidemics and pandemics and concurrent emergence of different pathogens calls for multi-sectoral, multi-pathogen preparedness actions. Data on various factors that drive emergence of diverse pathogens can inform evidence-based preparedness by identifying geographies at-risk. When leveraging evidence within a One Health approach, multiple pathogens can be addressed simultaneously, thereby strengthening countries pandemic preparedness efforts.
Methods
For seventeen priority pathogens (avian influenza viruses, zoonotic coronaviruses including COVID-19, hemorrhagic fever viruses including Ebola, Henipaviruses, and arboviruses including yellow fever and Zika), we identified global evidence on animal reservoirs, vectors, environmental suitability, and reported human cases. We discriminated geospatially recorded pathogen detections from a background sample and constructed maps using these datasets to generate an evidence-based assessment of emergence risk globally.
Results
Seventeen pathogen-specific assessments were combined into a global composite map. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have evidence supporting emergence risk for the greatest number of pathogens (included areas at-risk of all pathogens) and scored highest when strength-of-evidence weightings were factored. The Americas had the lowest tally of considered pathogens. Environmental suitability analyses received the highest weights, reservoir ranges the lowest.
Discussion
Preparedness and readiness must consider the range of global biological threats. Our methodology is capable of incorporating changing evidence on emergence potential for multiple pathogens to identify geographies at higher risk with different pathogen combinations. Our maps can contribute to existing decision-support structures, guiding shared interventions and strategic allocation of resources for spillover prevention and pandemic preparedness, thereby enhancing local response capacities applying a multidisciplinary approach.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work was concluded in 2024 and supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) before January 22, 2025, the Germany Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Government of France.
Source:
Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.20.26347940v1
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