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Risk statement
° This rapid risk assessment aims to assess the overall public health risk posed by the 2026 heatwaves in the WHO European Region.
° It considers the potential health impact, particularly among vulnerable population groups, the geographic scope and severity of the event, population vulnerabilities, available prevention and control capacities, and seasonal and environmental factors that may exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality.
° The 2026 European heatwave is assessed as presenting a moderate public health risk across the WHO European Region, with high confidence.
° Widespread and prolonged extreme temperatures across Europe, affecting large parts of Western, Central and Southern Europe, have resulted in substantial population exposure and are associated with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality, including reported excess deaths.
° Several countries have recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C and activated high-level heat-health warnings and emergency response measures.
° Preliminary European Mortality Monitoring network (EURO MOMO) data indicate substantial excess mortality associated with the 2026 heatwaves.
° Approximately 10,650 excess deaths were estimated during 22–28 June 2026, including more than 9,000 among adults aged 65 years and older.
° Across the two-week period of peak temperatures, European mortality surveillance estimates indicated more than 14,000 excess deaths, highlighting the substantial mortality impact of prolonged and extreme heat exposure.
° The public health impacts of the current heatwaves are expected to vary across and within countries.
° The greatest adverse health impacts are expected in severely affected countries and subnational areas, particularly in densely populated urban settings, where extreme daytime temperatures persist, night-time cooling is limited, population vulnerability is increased, and heat-health response measures are insufficient or not fully implemented.
° Existing healthsystem preparedness and response capacity, including early warning, public health measures, outreach to vulnerable groups and continuity arrangements, can reduce impacts; however, healthcare facility capacity alone is insufficient to mitigate heat-related health risks.
° The likelihood of significant health impacts is high wherever extreme temperatures persist, especially in the absence of comprehensive preparedness and response measures.
° Extreme heat may also interact with other environmental and meteorological hazards, creating compound and cascading risks.
° Heatwaves may contribute to atmospheric instability that can be followed by severe thunderstorms, intense rainfall, flash flooding, landslides and windstorms.
° Heat events may coincide with drought, water stress, high ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and air pollution, including vegetation fire smoke.
° These hazards can further increase morbidity and mortality, disrupt essential services, damage infrastructure, and complicate emergency response.
° Recent observations across Europe, including repeated episodes of vegetation fires and severe convective storms following heat events, underscore the need for integrated multi-hazard preparedness and response.
° As the event continues, heat-related morbidity, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations, and mortality are expected to increase further in affected areas, particularly among populations at increased risk.
° Heatwaves may place additional pressure on healthcare delivery through increased demand for emergency and medical services, overheating of healthcare and long-term care facilities, increased energy demand, potential disruption of cooling systems, impacts on medicine and vaccine storage, and heat stress among healthcare workers.
° Heat-related impacts extend beyond the health sector and may affect energy, water, transport, food systems, workplaces, schools and social services.
° Power disruptions may compromise cooling, medical equipment and healthcare operations, while water stress may affect hydration, hygiene and cooling access.
° Transport disruptions may limit access to healthcare, cooling centres and social support.
° Despite broad population exposure across Europe, the health impacts of heatwaves are not evenly distributed and are largely determined by individual vulnerability, living conditions, occupational exposure and access to protective measures.
° Populations at increased risk include:
§ older adults,
§ persons with underlying cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, diabetes-related or mental health conditions,
§ infants and young children,
§ pregnant women,
§ migrants, refugees and displaced populations,
§ homeless persons,
§ informal and outdoor workers,
§ people living in poor-quality or overcrowded housing and socially isolated individuals.
° Although heatwaves are typically acute events lasting days to weeks, their direct health impacts can be immediate and severe, with short-term increases in heat-related morbidity, emergency medical calls, emergency department visits, hospital admissions and mortality.
° Heat can also exacerbate chronic diseases, increase dehydration and heatstroke, worsen mental health and sleep disruption, and increase indirect risks such as drowning, occupational injuries, foodsafety problems and disruption to essential services.
° Longer-term public health consequences, such as changes in the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases, are less likely to arise from a single heatwave event but warrant continued surveillance, particularly when extreme heat is accompanied by environmental changes, water scarcity, altered human behavior, or shifts in vector distribution and activity.
° Importantly, the public health significance of heatwaves extends beyond their immediate effects, as these events are increasing in both frequency and intensity across Europe.
° Consequently, repeated and more severe heatwave episodes may contribute to cumulative health risks and broader environmental and ecological changes.
° Heatwaves are predictable hazards, and timely implementation of heat-health action plans can substantially reduce their impact.
° Weather forecasts and early warning systems should support targeted heat-health alerts, risk communication, outreach to vulnerable groups, workers' protection measures, continuity planning for health and social care services, access to cooling spaces and drinking water, and coordination across relevant sectors.
° Response planning should also consider co-occurring environmental factors, including high humidity, poor air quality, ozone, wildfire smoke, water stress, elevated night-time temperatures, and storms, which may further increase health risks and complicate public-health messaging.
° The public health risk associated with the 2026 heatwaves is heterogeneous across the WHO European Region, reflecting differences in climatic conditions, population vulnerability, exposure patterns, infrastructure, and public health preparedness:
• The highest risk is assessed in areas where prolonged extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity, particularly densely populated urban areas with persistent high daytime and night-time temperatures, poor housing conditions, limited access to cooling, high levels of social vulnerability, substantial occupational heat exposure, and insufficient heat-health response mechanisms.
• Moderate risk is assessed in areas experiencing less intense heat where preparedness and response measures are stronger. However, northern and traditionally cooler countries may still experience significant increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality during unusually high temperatures because populations, buildings and services are generally less adapted to extreme heat. (e.g., the 2018 Scandinavian heatwave saw notable mortality despite lower absolute temperatures).
• In Central Asia, the risk is moderate but expected to increase as the summer progresses, as extreme heat events typically intensify later in summer season. Early warning systems and timely implementation of heat-health response measures may help mitigate the expected health impact.
° Based on the current meteorological, epidemiological and public health information, the overall risk associated with the 2026 heatwave is assessed as “Moderate” in the WHO European Region, and as “Low” at the global level, with a high level of confidence in both assessments. The rapid risk assessment will be updated as additional information becomes available.
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{1} Confidence refers to the level of confidence in the data/information or the quality of the evidence available at the time the RRA is conducted. Poor quality information may increase the overall perceived risk due to the incertitude in the assessment.
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