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Showing posts with the label risk assessment

Rift Valley #fever [#RVFV] - #Mauritania and #Senegal (#WHO, D.O.N., Nov. 6 '25)

  Situation at a glance Between 20 September and 30 October 2025, a total of 404 confirmed human cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF), including 42 deaths , were reported by national health authorities in two West African countries : Mauritania and Senegal .  RVF is a zoonotic disease , which mainly affects animals, but can also infect humans.  The majority of human infections result from contact with the blood or organs of infected animals, but human infections have also resulted from the bites of infected mosquitoes .  To date, no human-to-human transmission of RVF has been documented.  While RVF often leads to severe illness in animals, its impact in humans varies, ranging from mild flu-like symptoms to severe hemorrhagic fever that can be fatal .  RVF is endemic in both countries, where recurrent outbreaks have been previously reported in both livestock and humans.  The risk of further spread remains high , especially with environmental conditions favo...

#Mpox Multi-country external #situation #report no. 59 published 30 October 2025 (#WHO, summary)

  Highlights     • This Situation report will now be published monthly.  • All clades of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) continue to circulate. When mpox outbreaks are not rapidly contained and human-to-human transmission is not interrupted, there is a risk of sustained community transmission.   • In September 2025, 42 countries , across all WHO regions, reported a total of 3135 confirmed cases , including 12 deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.4%). More than 80% of these cases were reported in the African Region . Four regions (African Region, Eastern Mediterranean Region, Region of the Americas, and the Western Pacific) observed a declining trend in confirmed cases reported per month, while the European and South-East Asian regions observed an increase in cases in September 2025. • Seventeen countries in Africa have experienced ongoing active transmission of mpox in the last six weeks (14 Sep – 19 Oct 2025), with 2862 confirmed cases, including 17 deaths (CFR ...

Joint #FAO / #WHO / #WOAH Rapid #Risk #Assessment of Rift Valley fever (#RVF) in #Senegal and #Mauritania: Implications for Public Health and Animal Health (Oct. 24 '25)

  {Excerpt} Risk statement This risk assessment is based on the current epidemiological and epizootic situation of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Senegal and Mauritania , from 20 September through 8 October 2025. The risk assessment was conducted separately for each country . However, the findings indicate that the level of risk is the same for both countries across all levels, for both human and animal health .   During this period , Senegal reported 119 confirmed human RVF cases , including 16 deaths , resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 13.4% . Cases were recorded across eight health districts in three regions of Senegal, with the majority in Saint-Louis Region with 110 cases (92%) followed by Louga (four cases) and Matam (one case).  The affected districts in Saint-Louis Region : Podor, Richard-Toll, Dagana, and Saint-Louis are located along the northern border with Mauritania along the Senegal River.   The most affected age groups were 15- 35 years ...

#Genetic and Serological Analysis of #H7N3 Avian #Influenza Viruses in #Mexico for #Pandemic #Risk Assessment

  Abstract Avian influenza A viruses pose ongoing threats to human and animal health, with H7 subtypes causing outbreaks globally . In Mexico , highly pathogenic H7N3 viruses have circulated in poultry since 2012, causing sporadic human infections . Here we analyzed genetic markers in hemagglutinin sequences from Mexican H7N3 isolates and conducted serological assays on human populations with poultry exposure . Our results show conserved avian-like receptor binding sites , thus limiting human adaptation , alongside antigenic drift and acquisition of glycosylation sites likely driven by vaccination. Serological testing of 1103 individuals revealed no detectable antibodies against H7N3, indicating a naĂ¯ve population . Phylogenetic analyses revealed multiple virus clades circulating regionally. These findings suggest that while current H7N3 viruses have limited capacity for sustained human transmission, the lack of population immunity underscores the importance of continued surveillan...

#Influenza at the #human - #animal #interface - Summary and #risk #assessment, from 26 August to 29 September 2025 (#WHO, edited)

  New human cases {1,2}:  -- From 26 August to 29 September 2025 , based on reporting date, the detection of influenza A(H5) in one human , influenza A(H5N1) in one human , influenza A(H9N2) in eight humans and an influenza A(H1N1) variant ((H1N1)v) virus in one human were reported officially.   Circulation of influenza viruses with zoonotic potential in animals :  -- High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) events in poultry and non-poultry animal species continue to be reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).{3}  -- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also provides a global update on avian influenza viruses with pandemic potential.{4}  Risk assessment {5}:  -- Sustained human to human transmission has not been reported from these events.  -- Based on information available at the time of this risk assessment update , the overall public health risk from currently known influenza A viruses d...

Comparative #risk #assessment of highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5 viruses spread in French #broiler and layer sectors

  Abstract Since 2015, French poultry production is threatened almost every year by a reintroduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses . The duck sector was the most concerned by this crisis but other sectors such as broiler, layer and turkey were also affected by outbreaks. The objective of this work was to assess the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus transmission from one farm to another within the French broiler and layer production network. This study used the WOAH risk assessment framework . After drawing up a scenario tree of virus transmission from one farm to another, data were collected through a literature review or through experts elicitation. Three questionnaires were developed according to the experts field of expertise: avian influenza, broiler and layer sectors. The experts estimates were combined using a beta distribution weighted by their confidence level. A Monte Carlo iteration process was used to combine the different probabilities...

Fatal #Human #H3N8 #Influenza Virus has a Moderate #Pandemic #Risk

  Abstract In China, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H3N8 virus is widespread among chickens and has recently caused three zoonotic infections , with the last one in 2023 being fatal . Here we evaluated the relative pandemic risk of this 2023 zoonotic H3N8 influenza virus, utilizing our previously published decision tree. Serological analysis indicated that a large proportion of the human population does not have any cross-neutralizing antibodies against this H3N8 strain. LPAI H3N8 displayed a dual affinity for a2-3 and a2-6 sialic acids and replicated efficiently in human bronchial epithelial cells . Furthermore, we observed H3N8 transmission via direct contact but not aerosols to ferrets with pre-existing H3N2 immunity. Although pre-existing H3N2 immunity resulted in a shortened disease course in ferrets, it did not reduce disease severity or replication in the respiratory tract. This study suggests that this zoonotic H3N8 strain has moderate pandemic potential and emphasiz...

RAPID #RISK #ASSESSMENT: #EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE, DRC (#WHO, September 19 '25)

  {Summary} Overall risk and confidence Overall risk -- National: High  -- Regional: Moderate    -- Global: Low    Confidence in available information  -- National: Moderate -- Regional: Moderate -- Global: Moderate Risk statement On 1 September 2025, WHO received an alert from the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) regarding suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Bulape Health Zone , Kasai Province , DRC.  The first currently known suspected EVD case was admitted to the Bulape General Reference Hospital on 20 August 2025 and reported to have died five days later (25 August 2025). This is a 34-year-old female patient with a 34-week gestational age who presented with fever, bloody diarrhoea, followed by anal, oral, and nasal haemorrhage, vomiting , and asthenia .  She reportedly died on 25 August 2025, with a clinical picture of multiple organ failure.  Two of the contacts of this first case (a m...

Long Term #Risk #Assessment: #COVID19, 5 September 2025 (#WHO, summary)

Overall global risk and confidence * Overall risk :  Global  - Moderate     Confidence in available information : Global - Low   Overall risk statement As of mid-2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 has changed from high to moderate , with declining deaths and hospitalizations since 2022 due to high population immunity , improved clinical management , and similar virulence .  Most SARSCoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages , which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity.  Nonetheless, surveillance gaps , reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting, especially from low- and middle-income countries , undermine accurate risk assessment .  SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely , as indicated by sentinel testing and wastewater surveillance , often co-circulating with influenza and RSV .  PostCOVID-19 condition is estimated to affect ...

#Statement of the 42nd #meeting of #Polio #IHR #Emergency Committee (#WHO, July 29 '25)

{Excerpts} The Forty-second meeting of the Emergency Committee under the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) on the international spread of poliovirus was convened by the WHO Director-General on 18 June 2025 with committee members and advisers meeting via video conference with affected countries, supported by the WHO Secretariat.   The Emergency Committee reviewed the data on wild poliovirus ( WPV1 ) and circulating vaccine derived polioviruses ( cVDPV ) in the context of the global target of interruption and certification of WPV1 eradication by 2027 and interruption and certification of cVDPV2 elimination by 2029.  Technical updates were received about the situation in the following countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Nigeria, Pakistan , and Papua New Guinea . (...) Conclusion The Committee unanimously agreed that the risk of international spread of poliovirus continues to constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) a...

Updated joint #FAO / #WHO / #WOAH public #health #assessment of recent #influenza #H5 virus #events in animals and people (July 28 '25)

  Key points   -- At the present time , based on available information, FAO-WHO-WOAH assess the global public health risk of influenza A(H5) viruses to be low , while the risk of infection for occupationally or frequently exposed (e.g., with backyard poultry) persons is low to moderate depending on the risk mitigation and hygiene measures in place and the local avian influenza epidemiological situation.  -- Transmission between animals continues to occur and, to date, a growing yet still limited number of human infections are being reported. Although additional human infections associated with exposure to infected animals or contaminated environments are expected to occur, the overall public health impact of such infections at a global level , at the present time, is considered minor . The assessment could change if and when additional epidemiological or virological information becomes available.  -- This risk assessment from FAO, WHO and WOAH updates the assessment ...