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Showing posts with the label risk assessment

Fatal #human #H3N8 #influenza virus has a moderate #pandemic #risk

  Abstract In China, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H3N8 virus is widespread among chickens and has recently caused three zoonotic infections , with the last one in 2023 being fatal . Here we evaluated the relative pandemic risk of this 2023 zoonotic H3N8 influenza virus , utilizing our previously published decision tree . Serological analysis indicated that a large proportion of the human population does not have any cross-neutralizing antibodies against this H3N8 strain. LPAI H3N8 displayed a dual affinity for α2–3 and α2–6 sialic acids and replicated efficiently in human bronchial epithelial cells . Furthermore, we observed H3N8 transmission via direct contact but not aerosols to ferrets with pre-existing H3N2 immunity . Although pre-existing H3N2 immunity resulted in a shortened disease course in ferrets, it did not reduce disease severity or replication in the respiratory tract. This study suggests that this zoonotic H3N8 strain has moderate pandemic potential and empha...

#Mpox Multi-country external #situation #report no. 63, published 24 February 2026 (#WHO, summary)

  Highlights     • Transmission of mpox continues in sexual networks , affecting both women and men , and in some historically endemic areas .  - All clades of monkeypox virus (MPXV) continue to circulate.  - Unless mpox outbreaks are rapidly contained and human-to-human transmission is interrupted , there is a risk of sustained community transmission .  • In January 2026, 50 countries across all WHO regions reported a total of 1334 new confirmed mpox cases , including three deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.2%).  - Of these cases , 66% were reported in the African Region.  • Four regions observed a decline in confirmed cases in January, compared to December 2025, while the European Region reported an increase in confirmed cases. • Twenty countries in Africa reported active transmission of mpox in the last six weeks (5 January – 15 February 2026), with 1142 confirmed cases, including four deaths (CFR 0.4%).  - Countries reporting the highes...

#MPOX, Multi-Country: Rapid #risk #assessment, 7 February 2026, v6 (#WHO, Feb. 18 '26)

  {Excerpt} Overall Global Risk Statement    -- This global rapid risk assessment (RRA) aims to assess the current public health risk associated with the 2024 upsurge of mpox in in Africa , in the context of the continuing global reporting of mpox cases in other regions since 2022, with a focus on updates since the previous RRA in September 2025.     Global overview   -- As of 28 January 2026, the monkeypox virus (MPXV) continues to spread globally, causing both localized and extended mpox outbreaks driven by various MPXV clades (Ia, Ib, IIa, and IIb) in diverse settings.  -- Furthermore, recombination of MPXV clades has been documented, with two cases of a recombinant clade Ib/IIb MPXV strain reported in recent months.   -- Globally, from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2025 (latest global data available), 143 countries and territories across all WHO regions have reported 177 848 confirmed cases, including 477 deaths (case fatality ratio ...

#Mpox: #recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb - Global (#WHO, Feb. 16 '26)

  Situation at a glance Recombination of monkeypox virus (MPXV) strains has been documented in recent months , with two cases of a recombinant strain comprising clade Ib and IIb MPXV reported.  Recombination is a known natural process that can occur when two related viruses infecting the same individual exchange genetic material , producing a new virus.  The first case was detected in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (hereafter “United Kingdom”), with travel history to a country in South-East Asia , and the second in India , with travel history to a country in the Arabian Peninsula .  Detailed analysis of the virus genomes shows that the two individuals fell ill several weeks apart with the same recombinant strain , suggesting that there may be further cases than are currently reported .  Both cases had similar clinical presentation to that observed for other clades.  Neither patient experienced severe outcomes.  Contact tracing...

New contagious #skin #disease detected in #horses in #Sweden (State Veterinary Medical Institute, Feb. 11 '26)

  A horse in Jönköping County and one in Norrbotten County , both of which had blisters and sores on the skin on their legs, were found to be infected with a smallpox virus called equine parapoxvirus or horse parapoxvirus . It is an infection that has not previously been detected in the country . The equine parapoxvirus was detected in our neighboring country Finland for the first time in 2021 . The State Veterinary Institute, SVA, has performed DNA analysis of the virus in the Swedish cases and it turned out to be the same type as in Finland. The virus has caused outbreaks in several Finnish stables with severe skin inflammation on the horses' legs, so-called mug or rasp. The typical symptom of parapoxvirus is small blisters (pox) that burst into round sores. The virus is transmitted by direct contact but also via equipment, clothing, hands and objects. Sick horses should be kept isolated from other horses. Use disposable gloves and special clothing when handling.    – T...

Efficient #replication of #influenza D virus in the #human #airway underscores zoonotic potential

  Abstract Influenza D virus (IDV), primarily found in livestock species, has demonstrated cross-species transmission potential , yet its threat to humans remains poorly understood . Here, we curated a panel of IDV isolates collected during field surveillance from 2011 to 2020 from swine and cattle to assess their ability to infect human airway cells as a proxy for zoonotic threat assessment. Using lung epithelial cell lines , primary well-differentiated airway epithelial cultures, and precision-cut lung slices , we demonstrated that IDV efficiently propagates in cells and tissues from the human respiratory tract , reaching titers comparable to human influenza A virus (IAV). Infection kinetics in primary porcine airway cultures and respiratory tissues mirrored those from human , suggesting similar infectivity across species. To define host responses to IDV infection, we evaluated innate immune sensing and downstream interferon signaling in human respiratory cells. IDV infection res...

#Nipah virus #infection - #Bangladesh (#WHO D.O.N., Feb. 7 '26)

  6 February 2026 Situation at a glance On 3 February 2026, the International Health Regulations National Focal Point (IHR NFP) for Bangladesh notified WHO of one confirmed case of Nipah virus (NiV) infection in Rajshahi Division .  The patient developed fever and neurological symptoms on 21 January.  Nipah virus infection was laboratory-confirmed on 29 January.  The patient reported no travel history but had a history of consuming raw date palm sap .  All 35 contact-persons are being monitored and have tested negative for NiV and no further cases have been detected to date.  Bangladesh regularly has small NiV outbreaks , with cases reported at different times of the year, though outbreaks tend to occur between December and April corresponding with the harvesting and consumption of date palm sap.  The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in Bangladesh has implemented several public health measures.  WHO assesses the overall public health risk pos...

Rapid #Risk #Assessment - #MERS-CoV, Eastern Mediterranean Region (#WHO, Feb. 3 '26, summary)

  Risk statement    -- The scope of this Rapid Risk Assessment is to reassess the epidemiological situation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus ( MERS-CoV ) following the recent exportation (in December 2025) of cases from the Arabian Peninsula to France and three healthcare-associated clusters reported by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2024–2025.  -- These events, together with the continued occurrence of sporadic cases in Arabian Peninsula countries, highlight the ongoing risk of international spread to non-endemic countries and reflect the persistent circulation of MERS-CoV in the Middle East .   -- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic virus transmitted to humans through direct or indirect contact with infected dromedary camels , which are the natural host of the virus.  -- First identified in humans in 2012 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Jordan , MERS-CoV causes a viral respiratory infect...

Long Term Rapid #Risk #Assessment, Acute Event of Potential Public Health Concern: #COVID19, Global (#WHO, Feb. 3 '26, summary)

  {Summary} Overall risk statement -- At the end of 2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 remained moderate, following the declining deaths and hospitalizations in 2022 due to high population immunity , improved clinical management, and similar virulence and characterized by sustained stability in severity indicators—including ICU admissions and in hospital mortality—throughout the following years.  -- Most SARS-CoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages , which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity compared to other Omicron sublineages.  -- Nonetheless, continued surveillance gaps , reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting , especially from low- and middle-income countries, undermine a more informed risk assessment at this time.  -- SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely , as indicated by sentinel surveillance under GISRS and wastewater surveillance , co-circulatin...