Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts with the label risk assessment

#Genetic and Serological Analysis of #H7N3 Avian #Influenza Viruses in #Mexico for #Pandemic #Risk Assessment

  Abstract Avian influenza A viruses pose ongoing threats to human and animal health, with H7 subtypes causing outbreaks globally . In Mexico , highly pathogenic H7N3 viruses have circulated in poultry since 2012, causing sporadic human infections . Here we analyzed genetic markers in hemagglutinin sequences from Mexican H7N3 isolates and conducted serological assays on human populations with poultry exposure . Our results show conserved avian-like receptor binding sites , thus limiting human adaptation , alongside antigenic drift and acquisition of glycosylation sites likely driven by vaccination. Serological testing of 1103 individuals revealed no detectable antibodies against H7N3, indicating a naĂ¯ve population . Phylogenetic analyses revealed multiple virus clades circulating regionally. These findings suggest that while current H7N3 viruses have limited capacity for sustained human transmission, the lack of population immunity underscores the importance of continued surveillan...

#Influenza at the #human - #animal #interface - Summary and #risk #assessment, from 26 August to 29 September 2025 (#WHO, edited)

  New human cases {1,2}:  -- From 26 August to 29 September 2025 , based on reporting date, the detection of influenza A(H5) in one human , influenza A(H5N1) in one human , influenza A(H9N2) in eight humans and an influenza A(H1N1) variant ((H1N1)v) virus in one human were reported officially.   Circulation of influenza viruses with zoonotic potential in animals :  -- High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) events in poultry and non-poultry animal species continue to be reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).{3}  -- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also provides a global update on avian influenza viruses with pandemic potential.{4}  Risk assessment {5}:  -- Sustained human to human transmission has not been reported from these events.  -- Based on information available at the time of this risk assessment update , the overall public health risk from currently known influenza A viruses d...

Comparative #risk #assessment of highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5 viruses spread in French #broiler and layer sectors

  Abstract Since 2015, French poultry production is threatened almost every year by a reintroduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses . The duck sector was the most concerned by this crisis but other sectors such as broiler, layer and turkey were also affected by outbreaks. The objective of this work was to assess the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus transmission from one farm to another within the French broiler and layer production network. This study used the WOAH risk assessment framework . After drawing up a scenario tree of virus transmission from one farm to another, data were collected through a literature review or through experts elicitation. Three questionnaires were developed according to the experts field of expertise: avian influenza, broiler and layer sectors. The experts estimates were combined using a beta distribution weighted by their confidence level. A Monte Carlo iteration process was used to combine the different probabilities...

Fatal #Human #H3N8 #Influenza Virus has a Moderate #Pandemic #Risk

  Abstract In China, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H3N8 virus is widespread among chickens and has recently caused three zoonotic infections , with the last one in 2023 being fatal . Here we evaluated the relative pandemic risk of this 2023 zoonotic H3N8 influenza virus, utilizing our previously published decision tree. Serological analysis indicated that a large proportion of the human population does not have any cross-neutralizing antibodies against this H3N8 strain. LPAI H3N8 displayed a dual affinity for a2-3 and a2-6 sialic acids and replicated efficiently in human bronchial epithelial cells . Furthermore, we observed H3N8 transmission via direct contact but not aerosols to ferrets with pre-existing H3N2 immunity. Although pre-existing H3N2 immunity resulted in a shortened disease course in ferrets, it did not reduce disease severity or replication in the respiratory tract. This study suggests that this zoonotic H3N8 strain has moderate pandemic potential and emphasiz...

RAPID #RISK #ASSESSMENT: #EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE, DRC (#WHO, September 19 '25)

  {Summary} Overall risk and confidence Overall risk -- National: High  -- Regional: Moderate    -- Global: Low    Confidence in available information  -- National: Moderate -- Regional: Moderate -- Global: Moderate Risk statement On 1 September 2025, WHO received an alert from the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) regarding suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Bulape Health Zone , Kasai Province , DRC.  The first currently known suspected EVD case was admitted to the Bulape General Reference Hospital on 20 August 2025 and reported to have died five days later (25 August 2025). This is a 34-year-old female patient with a 34-week gestational age who presented with fever, bloody diarrhoea, followed by anal, oral, and nasal haemorrhage, vomiting , and asthenia .  She reportedly died on 25 August 2025, with a clinical picture of multiple organ failure.  Two of the contacts of this first case (a m...

Long Term #Risk #Assessment: #COVID19, 5 September 2025 (#WHO, summary)

Overall global risk and confidence * Overall risk :  Global  - Moderate     Confidence in available information : Global - Low   Overall risk statement As of mid-2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 has changed from high to moderate , with declining deaths and hospitalizations since 2022 due to high population immunity , improved clinical management , and similar virulence .  Most SARSCoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages , which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity.  Nonetheless, surveillance gaps , reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting, especially from low- and middle-income countries , undermine accurate risk assessment .  SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely , as indicated by sentinel testing and wastewater surveillance , often co-circulating with influenza and RSV .  PostCOVID-19 condition is estimated to affect ...

#Statement of the 42nd #meeting of #Polio #IHR #Emergency Committee (#WHO, July 29 '25)

{Excerpts} The Forty-second meeting of the Emergency Committee under the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) on the international spread of poliovirus was convened by the WHO Director-General on 18 June 2025 with committee members and advisers meeting via video conference with affected countries, supported by the WHO Secretariat.   The Emergency Committee reviewed the data on wild poliovirus ( WPV1 ) and circulating vaccine derived polioviruses ( cVDPV ) in the context of the global target of interruption and certification of WPV1 eradication by 2027 and interruption and certification of cVDPV2 elimination by 2029.  Technical updates were received about the situation in the following countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Nigeria, Pakistan , and Papua New Guinea . (...) Conclusion The Committee unanimously agreed that the risk of international spread of poliovirus continues to constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) a...

Updated joint #FAO / #WHO / #WOAH public #health #assessment of recent #influenza #H5 virus #events in animals and people (July 28 '25)

  Key points   -- At the present time , based on available information, FAO-WHO-WOAH assess the global public health risk of influenza A(H5) viruses to be low , while the risk of infection for occupationally or frequently exposed (e.g., with backyard poultry) persons is low to moderate depending on the risk mitigation and hygiene measures in place and the local avian influenza epidemiological situation.  -- Transmission between animals continues to occur and, to date, a growing yet still limited number of human infections are being reported. Although additional human infections associated with exposure to infected animals or contaminated environments are expected to occur, the overall public health impact of such infections at a global level , at the present time, is considered minor . The assessment could change if and when additional epidemiological or virological information becomes available.  -- This risk assessment from FAO, WHO and WOAH updates the assessment ...