Abstract
Since 2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) belonging to H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b have circulated widely in North American wild birds and repeatedly spilled over into mammals. In 2025, the first H5N1-associated deaths in humans were recorded in the Western hemisphere, raising questions about how the ongoing evolution of the virus in wild birds impacts spillover risk. Here, our analysis of 21,471 H5N1 genomes identified an evolutionary shift in mid-2024, driven by interhemispheric migration from Asia and reassortment with new antigens. The genotypes that dominated the early years of North America's H5N1 epizootic traced their ancestry back to Europe, but Asia was the source of new "D1.1" genotype viruses that (a) spread faster, (b) have higher reassortment potential, (c) a broader host range, (d) repeatedly spill over to bovines, and (e) cause severe disease in humans, including non-farm workers.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funder Information Declared
Research Foundation - Flanders, https://ror.org/03qtxy027, G098321N, G0E1420N
European Union Horizon 2023 RIA project LEAPS, 101094685
DURABLE EU4Health project 02/2023-01/2027, 101102733
Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, F.4515.22
European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD, 874850
Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health (NIH), Department of Health and Human Services, 75N93021C00014
Source:
Link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2025.12.19.695329v2
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