Tuesday, September 29, 2026

#WHO reports latest global #trends in #cholera, #meningitis and #plague (WHO, Sept. 29 '26)



29 September 2026 | News release 


    Cholera deaths increased by 30% in 2025, despite fewer cases being reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).  

    In 2025, 47 countries reported 451 499 cholera cases and 7870 deaths to WHO. This is the highest number of annual cholera deaths reported to WHO since 1999. These figures reflect surveillance data reported to WHO and not the actual global burden of cholera, which is estimated to be substantially higher as many cases go unreported.  

    Seven countries – Angola, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen – accounted for around 90% of all reported cholera cases and deaths globally. The WHO African Region reported the largest burden, with a 34% increase in cases and a 58% increase in deaths compared with 2024. 

    These findings are published in the latest edition of the Weekly Epidemiological Record alongside updates about two other epidemic-prone bacterial diseases: meningitis and plague.  

    "The rise in cholera deaths is a reminder of the challenge ahead,” said Dr Chikwe Ihekweazu, Executive Director of WHO's Health Emergencies Programme. 

    “No one should be dying from cholera today when we have the tools to prevent and treat this disease. The concentration of cases and deaths in a small number of countries shows where targeted investments in safe water, sanitation and hygiene could have the greatest impact. Combined with stronger disease surveillance, community engagement, vaccination and access to quality care, these investments can help turn this trend around." 

    Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae bacteria. The disease spreads through food and water contaminated with faeces, especially in areas without safe water and sanitation. 

    While cholera is preventable and treatable, it can be fatal if severe dehydration is not rapidly treated. More than one in five reported cholera deaths occurred outside health facilities, highlighting that too many patients are still not reaching care in time. Among patients treated in health facilities, the fatality rate was below 1% – a threshold for adequate care – globally. However, the rate exceeded 1% in 12 countries in 2025. 

    Global production of oral cholera vaccines more than doubled between 2022 and 2025, increasing from around 30 million to approximately 80 million doses annually, significantly improving vaccine availability. Last year, the International Coordinating Group (ICG) on Vaccine Provision approved 71 million doses for use in affected countries, including 20 million doses for preventive vaccination, which resumed earlier this year after being suspended for more than three years. 


Vaccination is advancing the fight to defeat meningitis by 2030  

    Bacterial meningitis continues to place a substantial burden on countries in the African meningitis belt, an area extending from Senegal to Ethiopia where epidemics occur regularly. In 2025, 24 of the 26 countries in the region reported 21 526 suspected cases and 971 deaths to WHO, corresponding to a fatality rate of 4.5%. Among countries reporting data for both years, cases declined by 5.9% compared with the previous year.  

    Meningitis is the inflammation of the tissues surrounding the brain and spinal cord, with bacterial meningitis being the most serious type. Four types of bacteria account for most cases of bacterial meningitis worldwide. 

    Vaccination has transformed the efforts to combat meningococcal meningitis, one of the main causes of bacterial meningitis. Since the introduction of the meningococcal A conjugate vaccine in 2010, cases of serogroup A have declined by more than 99% among vaccinated populations, and no confirmed case has been reported since 2017 in countries that introduced the vaccine. 

    A vaccine offering broader protection against five meningococcal serogroups, Men5CV/MMCV, is now being introduced in the region for both outbreak response through the ICG and preventive vaccination campaigns. In 2025, Niger became the first country to carry out a country-wide campaign using this vaccine.  


Surveillance remains essential to control plague 

    Plague is a bacterial disease that usually spreads between animals through fleas and can sometimes infect people. 

    Between 2019 and 2025, 10 countries reported suspected human plague cases to WHO, six of which reported confirmed cases. Overall, 3847 suspected cases and 423 deaths were reported to WHO, corresponding to a case fatality rate of 11%. Most cases were reported from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Madagascar, where plague remains endemic in some areas. Plague may also occur in countries that do not report cases, and annual case numbers fluctuated depending on the timing, location and magnitude of outbreaks. 

    Continued surveillance of rodent and other animal populations, together with rapid response to outbreaks, remains essential to detect plague early, reduce transmission and prevent larger outbreaks.  


About WHO 

    Dedicated to the well-being of all people and guided by science, WHO leads and champions global efforts to give everyone, everywhere, an equal chance at a safe and healthy life. We are the United Nations’ agency for health that connects nations, partners and people in more than 150 locations – leading the world’s response to health emergencies, preventing disease, addressing the root causes of health issues and expanding access to medicines and health care. Our mission is to support all countries to promote, provide and protect health. “Together for health. Stand with science”, the theme of World Health Day 2026, marks a year-long campaign to highlight science as the foundation for protecting health and well-being worldwide.


Source: 


Link: https://www.who.int/news/item/29-09-2026-who-reports-latest-global-trends-in-cholera--meningitis-and-plague

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Avian #Influenza #Report: September 20 - 26 '26 (Wk 39) (HK CHP, Sept. 29 '26): 1 New #H5N1 Human Case in #Cambodia, 2 New #H9N2 Cases in #China

 


{Excerpts}

(...)

    ° Avian influenza A(H5N1)

        § Oddar Meanchey Province:

            - The case involved a 49-year-old man.

            - He has been isolated in the hospital and is receiving intensive medical  care. 

            - The patient worked at a farm and had direct contact with sick and dead chickens which tested positive for avian influenza A(H5N1) virus.

(...)

    ° Avian influenza A(H9N2):

        § Guangdong Province:

            - A one-year-old girl with onset on September 7, 2026.

        § Henan Province:

            - A one-year-old girl with onset on August 30, 2026.

(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/2026_avian_influenza_report_vol22_wk39.pdf

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#Taiwan, Seasonal #Influenza and #COVID19 #Epidemics Weekly #Report (CDC, Sept. 29 '26): #H1N1pdm09 flu virus and #SARS-CoV-2 PQ.16.1.1 variant predominated

 


{Excerpts}

(...)

    According to data from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the influenza epidemic in Taiwan remains stable and is still in its prevalent period. 

    In week 38 (September 20-26), there were 138,654 outpatient and emergency room visits for influenza-like illnesses, a slight decrease of 3.2% compared to the previous week, mainly due to outpatient closures during the long weekend. 

    Additionally, last week (September 22-28), there were 87 new severe cases of influenza (80 H1N1, 1 H3N2, and 6 untyped A cases) and 30 deaths (all H1N1). 

    Laboratory surveillance data shows that the influenza virus currently circulating in the community is predominantly type A, with type A H1N1 accounting for 87.7%. 

    This flu season (2015-2016) saw a cumulative total of 1,673 severe cases (1,041 H1N1, 510 H3N2, 32 unclassified H1N1, and 90 H1N1) and 334 deaths (206 H1N1, 106 H3N2, 10 unclassified H1N1, and 12 H1N1). 

    The majority of severe cases were among those aged 65 and above (65.9%) and those with a history of chronic illnesses (83.4%). 67.7% of patients had not received the flu vaccine this season. 

    Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, while the number of cases in Taiwan has decreased, it remains in an epidemic period. 

    In week 38 (September 20-26), there were 10,502 outpatient and emergency room visits related to COVID-19, a 28.4% decrease compared to the previous week (September 13-19). 

    Last week (September 22-28), there were 33 new severe cases and 14 new deaths. 

    Since October 2025, there have been a total of 756 cases of COVID-19 complicated by severe illness, of which 147 have died. 

    The majority of severe cases are among the elderly aged 65 and above (73.7%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (82.9%). 83.6% of these cases have not received the COVID-19 vaccine this season. 

    In the past four weeks, the most prevalent local case variants have been PQ.16.1.1 and NB.1.8.1.

(...)

Source: 


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#Australia, #H5 avian #influenza events in #wildlife (Dept. of Agriculture, Sept. 29 '26)

 


{Excerpt}

(...)

Event data

    ° 666 Positive events

    ° 53,141 Hotline reports


    As of 4pm AEST, 28 September 2026, Australia has 666 confirmed events of H5 bird flu in wildlife.

        § 10 in Western Australia (WA)

        § 321 in South Australia (SA)

        § 67 in New South Wales (NSW)

        § 2 in Queensland (QLD)

        § 220 in Victoria (VIC)

        § 45 in Tasmania (TAS)

        § 1 in Other Territories*

{*} Jervis Bay Territory (Commonwealth jurisdiction)


    As H5 bird flu is confirmed in more locations and species in Australia it will not be necessary to continue testing all species in known areas of transmission, or to test every animal involved in an investigation. 

    Reporting will be targeted to provide a clear picture of the national H5 bird flu situation in wildlife in Australia and key developments.


Data disclaimer

    Data reflects information provided by state and territory governments to the Australian Government as at 17:00 AEST daily. The Australian Government publishes this information for national reporting purposes. Responsibility for the accuracy, completeness and currency of the data remains with the relevant state or territory government. Due to differences in reporting timing, information on the national dashboard may differ from information published on state or territory government websites.


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

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(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/campaigns/birdflu/latest-data#h1_bird_flu

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Sunday, September 27, 2026

Molecular evolutionary #dynamics of #coxsackievirus A16 in #Shenzhen, #China, 2012–2022

 


Highlights

    • A decade of CV-A16 molecular epidemiology in Shenzhen was analyzed.

    • Bayesian methods estimated the molecular evolutionary rate of CV-A16.

    • Transmission risk and evolutionary dynamics of CV-A16 in Shenzhen were assessed.


Abstract

Objectives

To investigate the epidemiological and genetic characteristics of coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shenzhen, China.

Methods

CVA16 was examined by a real-time RT-PCR method. Complete VP1 gene sequences of CVA16 strains were determined, and sequence analyses were performed using a series of bioinformatics programs.

Results

Of 6436 mild HFMD specimens collected between 2012 and 2022, 1395 (21.7%) were CVA16-positive, with annual detection rates ranging from 4.1% to 45.4% and peaking in 2018. Molecular phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulation of three CVA16 sub-genotypes (B1a, B1b and B3) in Shenzhen, China. The major sub-genotype was B1b from 2013 to 2019, while the sub-genotype B1a predominated in 2020-2022. Phylogenetic and sequence homology analyses suggested that re-emerging CVA16 B1a strains in Shenzhen originated from Vietnam and Thailand. The mean evolutionary rate of CVA16 strains circulating in Shenzhen was estimated at 3.604×10-3 substitutions per site per year. Distinct amino acid mutations in VP1 correlated with temporal shifts in Shenzhen's dominant CVA16 sub-genotypes: N14S/L23M for B1b, and T164K/V251I for the 2017–2022 re-emergent B1a.

Conclusion

In the post-EV-A71 vaccine era, CVA16 remains one of the major pathogens of HFMD in Shenzhen. Over the study period, the CVA16 sub-genotype in Shenzhen underwent a B1a→B1b→B1a turnover, which was associated with both imported lineages and local adaptive evolution. This study underscores the critical importance of continuous molecular surveillance for CVA16.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2026.105998

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Descent from the Cross (right wing), Peter Paul Rubens (1612 - 1614)

 


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

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Public Domain.


Source: 


Link: https://www.wikiart.org/en/peter-paul-rubens/descent-from-the-cross-right-wing-1614

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Saturday, September 26, 2026

In silico analysis of #pH stabilising #mutations of #hemagglutinin of #influenza A virus #H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

 


Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses are expanding their host range among mammals, raising concerns about their pandemic potential. Building on recently published deep mutational scanning data, we show that hemagglutinin retains structural plasticity to increase acid stability through independent mechanisms, including modulation of electrostatic interactions, hydrogen-bonding networks and hydrophobic packing that may facilitate human adaptation. These findings illustrate how structural analyses can strengthen genomic surveillance for pandemic risk assessment.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44298-026-00236-y

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Early insights into predicted efficacy of #Ebola monoclonal #antibodies for the 2026 #Bundibugyo virus disease #outbreak

 


Abstract

The 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the DRC and Uganda raises urgent questions about the efficacy of existing Ebola virus (EBOV) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against Bundibugyo virus (BDBV). Here, we perform genomic and structural analyses of 44 BDBV sequences, including 12 from the 2026 outbreak, to assess mAb binding to the viral glycoprotein (GP). While the MBP134 cocktail epitopes remain conserved, mAb114 (Ebanga) binding is compromised by E112D and P116A mutations, causing off-target binding and reduced affinity. Structural modeling of Inmazeb shows that while Odesivimab maintains epitope binding, Atoltivimab and Maftivimab fail to bind their designated sites individually, though the complete trimeric cocktail demonstrates BDBV synergistic binding. These computational models predict mAb114 efficacy against BDBV may be compromised due to epitope mutations affecting binding affinity, whereas MBP134 retains conserved targeting and holds promise as a broadly protective therapeutic. The complex binding behavior of Inmazeb components points to the importance of antibody combinatorial effects for treatment efficacy. These observations warrant urgent experimental validation through neutralization assays.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78077-9

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Highly Pathogenic Avian #Influenza Viruses #H5N1 and #H5N5 in Red #Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in #Norway during 2022-2024

 


Abstract

Since 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5Nx) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have spread globally, causing extensive outbreaks in domestic and wild birds. Increased circulation has resulted in frequent spillover to mammals, and occasional mammal-to-mammal transmission. Although human infections remain rare, the zoonotic potential of these viruses continues to be a public health concern. We investigated six cases of HPAI in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Norway during 2022-2024 and identified infections with H5N1 and H5N5 viruses. Pathological and virological investigations demonstrated systemic infection, with prominent lesions in the brain and/or lungs. Phylogenetic analyses showed high similarity between viruses detected in foxes and those concurrently circulating in wild birds. The mammalian adaptation marker PB2:E627K was identified in one H5N1 virus and as a minority variant in a second H5N1 virus.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funder Information Declared

Norwegian Veterinary Institute, 12314

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754393

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#Australia, #H5 avian #influenza events in #wildlife (Dept. Agriculture, September 26 '26)

 {Extracts}

(...)

Event data

    ° 652 Positive events

    ° 51,840 Hotline reports


    As of 4pm AEST, 25 September 2026, Australia has 652 confirmed events of H5 bird flu in wildlife.

        § 10 in Western Australia (WA)

        § 319 in South Australia (SA)

        § 67 in New South Wales (NSW)

        § 2 in Queensland (QLD)

        § 208 in Victoria (VIC)

        § 45 in Tasmania (TAS)

        § 1 in Other Territories*

{*} Jervis Bay Territory (Commonwealth jurisdiction)


    As H5 bird flu is confirmed in more locations and species in Australia it will not be necessary to continue testing all species in known areas of transmission, or to test every animal involved in an investigation. 

    Reporting will be targeted to provide a clear picture of the national H5 bird flu situation in wildlife in Australia and key developments.


Data disclaimer

    Data reflects information provided by state and territory governments to the Australian Government as at 17:00 AEST daily. The Australian Government publishes this information for national reporting purposes. Responsibility for the accuracy, completeness and currency of the data remains with the relevant state or territory government. Due to differences in reporting timing, information on the national dashboard may differ from information published on state or territory government websites.


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/campaigns/birdflu/latest-data#h1_bird_flu

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History of Mass Transportation: The Class 46 219.2 Electric Locomotive of Bulgarian Railways

 


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

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By HotMusicFan - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=61645678


Source: 


Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_State_Railways

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Friday, September 25, 2026

#Ebola disease caused by #Bundibugyo virus - #DRC (WHO D.O.N., September 25 '26): 7,890 cases and 3,799 deaths so far

 


{Extracts}


Situation at a glance

    Since the last Disease Outbreak News was published on 11 September 2026, the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has expanded further, with two additional health zones affected. 

    These include Bulu health zone in a new province, Sud Ubangi, located on the north-west part of the country and Dungu health zone in Haut-UĂ©lĂ© province, bordering South Sudan. 

    This brings the total number of affected health zones to 63 across seven provinces out of 26 provinces of the country: Bas-UĂ©lĂ©, Haut-UĂ©lĂ©, Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Sud Ubangi and Tshopo. 

    This latest geographic expansion increases the risk of cross-border transmission. 

    As of 23 September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported 7890 confirmed cases, including 3799 deaths, resulting in a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.1%. 

    At the national level, the number of new cases reported each day remains high. However, the situation varies across the country, with some provinces and health zones experiencing much higher levels of transmission than others. 

    The continuously high CFR, and especially the continuous high rate of deaths occurring in communities, highlights the seriousness of the disease and the persistent challenges in timely case detection and access to early and adequate patient care. 

    These delays can contribute to preventable illness and deaths among people in affected and newly affected areas, while also allowing transmission to continue within households, communities, and healthcare settings.


Description of the situation

    Since the previous Disease Outbreak News was published on 11 September 2026, an additional 1133 confirmed cases, including 532 confirmed deaths, have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

    The seven-day moving average shows a resurgence in early September followed by a decline over the most recent reporting days. 

    However, the aggregate national trend conceals substantial variation in transmission intensity across affected provinces and health zones. 

    As of 23 September, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported a total of 7890 confirmed cases, including 3799 deaths (CFR 48.1%). 

    A total of 1966 patients have recovered to date. 

    Confirmed cases have been reported from 63 health zones across seven provinces, with 48 health zones from six provinces reporting at least one case in the last 21 days. 

    Ituri remains the most affected province, with 28 of its 36 health zones reporting cases, followed by North Kivu (16/34), Tshopo (7/23), Haut-UĂ©lĂ© (7/13), Bas-UĂ©lĂ© (3/11), South Kivu (1/34), and Sud Ubangi (1/16). 

    No new cases have been reported from South Kivu province since 29 May 2026.  

    Dungu Health Zone in Haut-UĂ©lĂ© province and Bulu in Sud Ubangi are the most recently affected areas. 

    As of 23 September, 70 new confirmed cases had been reported in the preceding 24 hours from 26 health zones located in Ituri, North Kivu, Haut-UĂ©lĂ©, Bas UĂ©lĂ© and Tshopo provinces.  

(...)

    Ituri continues to be the epicentre of the outbreak, accounting for 6032 confirmed cases since the start of the outbreak, including 868 new confirmed cases reported in the previous 21 days, as of 23 September. 

    North Kivu is the second most affected province, with a cumulative number of 1480 confirmed cases, including 567 reported in the last 21 days, as of 23 September. 

    North Kivu province continues to report the highest CFR (59.7%) observed in this outbreak; and investigations are ongoing to better understand the factors contributing to this elevated mortality rate. 

    In Ituri, case incidence continues to decline gradually from the peak observed in mid-August, although transmission remains at elevated levels. 

    North Kivu, in contrast, has experienced a substantial increase in incidence, reaching its highest reported level in mid-September, followed by a decline in recent reporting days. 

    Haut-UĂ©lĂ© continues to demonstrate sustained transmission, albeit at levels below the peak recorded in late August, while Tshopo is showing renewed transmission activity following a period of low incidence. 

    In Bas-UĂ©lĂ©, transmission remains sporadic, whereas no recent evidence of transmission has been reported in Sud-Kivu. 

    Sud Ubangi is the seventh province to report a confirmed case of BVD, with one case that was reported on 10 September (Figure 2). 

    The number of individuals requiring follow-up as contact has also risen considerably with the expansion of the outbreak. 

    As of 23 September, 83.4% of identified contacts were successfully monitored during the previous 24 hours with 26 980 contacts seen out of 32 342 requiring follow up. 

    The large volume of contacts under surveillance highlights the extent of potential exposure within affected communities and the substantial demands placed on response operations. 

    The response is being implemented in a challenging humanitarian environment, where conflict, insecurity, displacement, and limited access to basic services continue to affect outbreak control.  These constraints continue to hamper surveillance, case finding, contact tracing, infection prevention and control, and timely access to appropriate care, thereby limiting the overall effectiveness of response activities. 


Figure 2: Number of confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, by date of notification, as of 23 September 2026


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___


Figure 3: Number of deaths among confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by date of notification, as of 23 September 2026. 


{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

(...)


WHO risk assessment

    On 14 August 2026, WHO reassessed the risk of the outbreak of BVD, incorporating newly available information on the evolving situation. 

    The risk for countries sharing land borders with the Democratic Republic of the Congo was separated from the risk for other countries in the African Region. 

    The risk in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was assessed as very high, the risk for countries sharing land borders with the Democratic Republic of the Congo was assessed as high, and the risks for the rest of the African region and at the global level was again assessed as low. 

(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www/who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak.news.item/2026-DON618

____

#Recommendations announced for #influenza #vaccine composition for the 2027 southern hemisphere influenza season (WHO, extract)

 


{Excerpts}

(...)

    From February to August 2026, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses circulated in varying proportions across all regions of the world, causing disease. 

    Influenza A viruses were the most common in most regions, except Northern and Western Africa, North America and Eastern Asia, where influenza B viruses dominated.

    WHO recommends that vaccines for use in the 2027 southern hemisphere influenza season contain the following:


Egg-based vaccines

    ° an A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;

    ° an A/Darwin/1454/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and

    ° a B/Tokyo/EIS13-175/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.


Cell culture-, recombinant protein- or nucleic acid-based vaccines

    ° an A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;

    ° an A/Darwin/1415/2025 (H3N2)-like virus; and

    ° a B/Pennsylvania/14/2025 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus.


    As part of the review, experts also looked at influenza viruses circulating in animals, particularly those that have caused infections in humans. These animal or zoonotic influenza viruses remain a significant concern because of their potential to cause pandemics.

(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www.who.int/news/item/25-09-2026-recommendations-announced-for-influenza-vaccine-composition-for-the-2027-southern-hemisphere-influenza-season

____

Seasonal #surveillance in #humans in 2026 for #WNV - Weekly Report (ECDC, Sept. 25 '26): 1,569 cases so far of which 696 in #Italy

 


{Extracts}

(...)

Week 39, 2026 | Published on 25 September 2026, based on data submitted up until and including 23 September 2026.


Current situation

    Since the beginning of the 2026 transmission season, and as at 23 September, 186 areas affected by West Nile virus (WNV) have been identified in 16 countries across Europe.

    These areas are located in: 

        § Italy (65), 

        § Greece (22), 

        § Romania (22), 

        § France (21), 

        § the Netherlands (13), 

        § Serbia (8), 

        § Spain (6), 

        § Croatia (5), 

        § North Macedonia (5), 

        § Belgium (4), 

        § Hungary (4), 

        § Austria (3), 

        § Germany (3), 

        § Kosovo (3), 

        § Albania (1) and 

        § Cyprus (1).

    This week, six areas are reported as affected for the first time this season. The affected areas identified as at 23 September 2026 are listed in Table 1 and shown in Map 1 below.

    The 16 countries have reported 1 569 locally acquired human cases of WNV infection: 

        § Italy (696 cases), 

        § Greece (355 cases, of which 8 had an unknown place of infection), 

        § Spain (125 cases), 

        § France (102 cases), 

        § Romania (91 cases), 

        § North Macedonia (69 cases), 

        § Serbia (46 cases), 

        § the Netherlands (28 cases), 

        § Croatia (13 cases), 

        § Cyprus (13 cases), 

        § Belgium (9 cases), 

        § Austria (7 cases), 

        § Hungary (5 cases), 

        § Germany (4 cases), 

        § Kosovo (4 cases) and 

        § Albania (2 cases)

(...)

Source: 


Link: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/west-nile-fever/surveillance-and-disease-data/disease-data-ecdc

____

Modelling #assessment of the different #paths of between-farm #transmission of avian #influenza HPAI in Northern #Italy in 2021--2022

 


Abstract

We propose a stochastic epidemic model to describe the spread of avian influenza in a network of poultry farms. We consider three main paths of infection transmission between poultry farms: from nearby farms, mainly through airborne diffusion; from farms belonging to the same company, through shared veterinarians, forage providers and similar; from undetected small farms or wildlife. From the parameter estimation, based on a modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm, we infer that approximately 63% of the farms were infected from nearby ones, with an infection force declining with distance; of these, more than one third belonged to the same company of the estimated infector. About 20% were infected from premises belonging to the same company but farther away than the distance threshold of 2 km; the remaining ones from wildlife or unidentified sources. These estimates have been validated by a comparison with genetic data, available for a subset of the farms: the genetic distance between two farms identified, with high probability, as an infector-infectee pair is much lower than between random pairs. These results may help in the implementation of tailored prevention and control measures for future outbreaks.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funder Information Declared

Fondazione Caritro (Cassa di Risparmio di Trento e Rovereto), Post-Doc 2024 project ``Modelli matematici di malattie infettive piu` ospiti e popolazioni eterogenee: applicazioni all'influenza aviaria''

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832

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