ETIDIOH - NEW

Abstract The ecological factors that led to the 1918 influenza pandemic remain unknown. We hypothesise that horses acted as intermediate hosts spreading a pre-pandemic avian-origin virus before 1918. This is supported by reports describing a large epizootic of unusually severe equine influenza beginning in 1915. Furthermore, the high horse demand during WWI resulted in one of the biggest equine mobilisations in North America between 1914 and 1918. This extensive movement of horses provided abundant opportunities for virus reassortment between pre-pandemic avian and human influenza viruses. Archived equine tissues or serum samples will be needed to test this hypothesis. Source: Journal of Infectious Diseases,  https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaf197/8115353?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false ____

Abstract Background Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by integrating lessons from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. It addresses the gap in existing modelling studies by combining various pandemic parameters in a comprehensive setting. Using Zurich as a case study, we seek a deeper understanding of pandemic dynamics to inform future scenarios. Data and methods We use newly digitized weekly aggregated epidemic/pandemic time series (incidence, hospitalisations, mortality and sickness absences from work) to retrospectively model the 1918–1920 pandemic in Zurich and investigate how different parameters correspond, how transmissibility changed during the different waves, and how public health interventions were associated with changes in these pandemic parameters. Results In general, the various time series show a good temporal correspondence , but differences in their expression can also be observed. The first wave in th...