Retrospective #modelling of the #disease and #mortality burden of the 1918–1920 #influenza #pandemic in #Zurich, #Switzerland
Abstract Background Our study aims to enhance future pandemic preparedness by integrating lessons from historical pandemics, focusing on the multidimensional analysis of past outbreaks. It addresses the gap in existing modelling studies by combining various pandemic parameters in a comprehensive setting. Using Zurich as a case study, we seek a deeper understanding of pandemic dynamics to inform future scenarios. Data and methods We use newly digitized weekly aggregated epidemic/pandemic time series (incidence, hospitalisations, mortality and sickness absences from work) to retrospectively model the 1918–1920 pandemic in Zurich and investigate how different parameters correspond, how transmissibility changed during the different waves, and how public health interventions were associated with changes in these pandemic parameters. Results In general, the various time series show a good temporal correspondence , but differences in their expression can also be observed. The first wave in th...