Global #risk #mapping of highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5N1 and H5Nx in the light of epidemic episodes occurring from 2020 onward
Abstract Avian influenza (AI) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting poultry and wild water birds , posing significant global challenges due to its high mortality rates and economic impacts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks , particularly those caused by H5N1 and its variants , have surged since their first occurrence in 1959. The HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have notably expanded its geographical reach, affecting numerous countries, diverse avian species, and now wild and domestic mammals . Using an ecological niche modelling approach, this study aims to elucidate the environmental factors associated with the increased HPAI H5 cases since 2020, investigate potential shifts in ecological niches , and predict new areas suitable for local viral circulation. Focusing on H5N1 and H5Nx strains, we have developed ecological niche models for HPAI case in both wild and domestic birds while considering two distinct periods: 2015-2020 and 2020-2022. Key environmenta...