#Molnupiravir clinical trial simulation suggests that #PCR underestimates #antiviral #potency against #SARS-CoV-2
Abstract Molnupiravir is an antiviral medicine that induces lethal copying errors during SARS-CoV-2 RNA replication . Molnupiravir reduced hospitalization in one pivotal trial by 50% and had variable effects on reducing viral RNA levels in three separate trials. We used mathematical models to simulate these trials and closely recapitulated their virologic outcomes . Model simulations suggested lower antiviral potency against pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants than against Omicron . We estimated that in vitro assays underestimated in vivo potency by 6- to 7-fold against Omicron variants. Our model suggested that because polymerase chain reaction detects molnupiravir mutated variants, the true reduction in non-mutated viral RNA was underestimated by approximately 0.4 log10 in the two trials conducted while Omicron variants dominated. Viral area under the curve estimates differed significantly between non-mutated and mutated viral RNA. Our results reinforce past work suggesting that in...