Showing posts with label abstract. Show all posts
Showing posts with label abstract. Show all posts

Friday, October 2, 2026

Multi-Country #Human-to-Human #Andes Virus #Outbreak on a Cruise #Ship: A Disaster #Report on Prehospital, Health Care Facility, and Public Health System Challenges – Essential Knowledge for Frontline Clinicians

 


Abstract

The Andes Virus (ANDV) outbreak reported on May 2, 2026, aboard a luxury vessel departing from Ushuaia, Patagonia, Argentina, was caused by an Orthohantavirus unique in its person-to-person transmissibility in contrast to zoonotic transmission characteristic of better-known hantaviruses. Containment required coordinated international management because passengers and crew embarked and disembarked at several international ports-of-call prior to outbreak recognition, resulting in cross-border transmission potential. Among those who disembarked, several traveled on flights to various destinations. Cases subsequently manifested in multiple countries, including Tristan da Cunha, Spain, France, Switzerland, South Africa, Canada, and The Netherlands. Upon notification, international health authorities implemented containment measures, such as contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation. Uniquely, ANDV poses distinctive risks due to its immediately prodromal presymptomatic transmission potential, initial non-specific flu-like symptoms, prolonged incubation period, conceivable long-term neurologic and endocrinologic sequalae, high case fatality rates (CFRs), and possibility of international dissemination. This report describes the successful management of a multi-national outbreak associated with cruise-ship travel, a setting with unique challenges. It also examines implications and challenges for prehospital, health care facility, and public health systems for future ANDV outbreaks. The event was characterized by delayed recognition, international spread, and complex coordination across multiple jurisdictions and sectors, including medical and public health authorities, policy- and decision-makers, crisis and emergency risk-communication experts, media, logistics, transportation, and security. Rapid implementation of public health measures coupled with clinician implementation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) model, a clinical framework to detect and prevent the spread of infectious disease, at the prehospital and health care facility levels are critical actions that can contain future ANDV outbreaks.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X26109108

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Thursday, October 1, 2026

Notes from the Field: #Fatal Pneumonic #Plague — Coconino County, #Arizona, July 2025

 


Summary

    ° What is already known about this topic?

        § Pneumonic plague is a rare and often fatal disease that can be transmitted by respiratory droplets from animals or persons infected with Yersinia pestis bacteria.

    ° What is added by this report?

        § In July 2025, Arizona reported its first pneumonic plague death since 2007, in a man with occupational exposure to ill cats. Two days after the patient’s death, preliminary diagnostic test results supported a suspected pneumonic plague diagnosis, prompting immediate identification of potentially exposed persons for postexposure prophylaxis.

    ° What are the implications for public health practice?

        § In areas with endemic plague, preliminary diagnostic test results combined with clinical suspicion for pneumonic plague can result in timely public health interventions.


Abstract

Pneumonic plague is transmitted through inhalation of respiratory droplets containing the bacterium Yersinia pestis and has a nearly 100% case-fatality rate when untreated. Although Y. pestis is endemic among rodents in northern Arizona, only eight human plague cases were reported in Arizona during 2000–2024. In July 2025, Arizona reported its first pneumonic plague death since 2007.


Source: 


Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7538a2

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Two incursions, two viruses: emergence of a second novel #Shamonda virus clade, #Germany, 2026

 


Abstract

Following the emergence of Shamonda virus (SHAV) in Europe in 2026, we identified a second, genetically distinct SHAV clade in cattle in Germany. Consistent differences across all three genome segments together with divergent regional distribution patterns indicate independent introductions. We have designated the two clades as SHAV Europe 1 (SHAV-EU1) and SHAV Europe 2 (SHAV-EU2). The unexpected co-circulation of these two clades has important implications for diagnostics, surveillance, host range assessment, risk evaluation and control measures.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.39.2600756

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#MERS-CoV in #Africa: a One Health #review of the silent #reservoir

 


Summary

Africa harbours more than 80% of the world’s dromedary camels, with a pooled MERS-CoV seroprevalence of 73·7%; however, no autochthonous outbreak in humans has been documented. In this Review, we weigh five interacting explanations for the absence of documented human outbreaks based on the strength of the evidence for each explanation. The primary explanation is virological; many, although not all, African clade C MERS-CoV strains show reduced replication competence in human respiratory tissues, and clade C strains have not become established in Arabian camels or humans despite decades of large-scale export from the Horn of Africa into the world’s most intensively monitored MERS-CoV surveillance system. Environmental contexts, including dry-season herd aggregation, drought, and calving-linked shedding, influence when MERS-CoV exposure occurs in humans. Surveillance limitations, dispersed exposure among the African population particularly pastoralists, lower comorbidity burden than that in affected populations in the Arabian regions, and absent nosocomial amplification are secondary explanations, largely downstream of the primary factors. Although longitudinal cohort studies using enhanced diagnostics detected sporadic spillover in Africa, these infections were asymptomatic. The presence of clade B strains and interclade B×C recombinants in Egyptian camels are surveillance priorities and not evidence of MERS-CoV emergence in humans. Africa’s silent reservoir is therefore not a safe one: continued clade C circulation, alongside emerging clade B introductions and interclade recombinants, could shift this balance, underscoring the need for sustained genomic and human surveillance of the reservoir.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanmic.2026.101530

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#Andes Virus — A Clinical #Review

 


Summary

Andes virus (ANDV) is the sole orthohantavirus with documented human-to-human transmission. We summarize the epidemiology and clinical features of ANDV infection and review best practices in clinical management, as based on published expert consensus guidelines, field experience, and clinical trials. We also evaluate currently available and investigational treatments (including the use of antiviral agents), assess emerging monoclonal antibody therapies, and outline prospects for vaccine development. Finally, we discuss important infection prevention and control measures.


Source: 


Link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2606651

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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

#SARS-CoV-2-specific monoclonal #antibody AER002 in #LongCOVID: an exploratory randomized phase 2a mechanistic trial

 


Abstract

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 has been proposed as a biological driver of Long COVID, a disabling chronic illness with no proven treatments. We conducted an exploratory, placebo-controlled, double-blind, 2:1 randomized mechanistic trial (NCT05877508) of the SARS-CoV-2-specific monoclonal antibody AER002 in 36 participants who met the World Health Organization case definition of Long COVID. After baseline characterization, participants received a single infusion and were followed for 360 days. The primary endpoint was the PROMIS-29 Physical Health Summary Score (PHSS) at 90 days; secondary and exploratory endpoints included patient-reported and objective measures of physical and neurocognitive function as well as blood-, imaging-, and tissue-based biomarkers. While AER002 was safe and well tolerated, no significant differences in physical health, quality of life, objective measures of physical function or cognition, or blood-based biomarkers were demonstrated between the treatment and control arms. In a post-hoc analysis, participants with a lower baseline SARS-CoV-2 antibody level and higher drug exposure were more likely to perceive treatment benefit based on the Patient Global Impression of Change scale (p < 0.05 for anti-S, S1, and RBD). Although AER002 was not efficacious in this proof-of-concept study, our findings could inform future trials using monoclonal antibodies to target viral persistence in Long COVID.

Source: 


Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-77925-y

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N70S/Y155H Combined #Mutation of #Neuraminidase of Avian #Influenza #H9N2 Virus confers #oseltamivir and #zanamivir #resistance and pathogenicity to Mice

 


Highlights

    • H9N2 viruses recently circulating in China harbors novel N70S/Y155H dual mutations in N2;

    • H9N2 viruses with N70S/Y155H mutations exhibit high pathogenicity to BALB/c mice.

    • N70S/Y155H linked mutations in N2 confer resistance to oseltamivir and zanamivir, rather than peramivir.

    • Neuraminidase inhibitors exhibited limited efficacy on H9N2 virus with novel N70S /Y155H dual mutations.


Abstract

Recently, H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) poses a significant threat to both the poultry industry and public health. Therefore, investigating the impact of its neuraminidase mutations on susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) is of great importance for clinically preventing potential cross-species transmission of H9N2. In this study, our results revealed that NAI resistance-related mutations of most H9N2 viruses isolated from China during 1998 to 2024 mainly occurred at positions N70S, E119A/D/G/V, Q133K, Q136A, D151E, Y155H, I222V, R224K, E276D, R292K, N294S, and R371K. Among them, the combined N70S and Y155H mutations are common characteristics of H9N2 viruses circulating in recent years. In vivo experiments demonstrated that these H9N2 viruses harboring the combined N70S and Y155H mutations exhibit high pathogenicity to BALB/c mice without prior adaption. In vitro neuraminidase inhibition assays confirmed that these H9N2 viruses bearing the N70S/Y155H mutations exhibited greater reduced inhibition than their counterparts bearing the N70S or Y155H single mutation to oseltamivir and zanamivir, but remained highly sensitive to peramivir. Notably, the in vivo protective effect of NAIs against H9N2 virus with combined N70S and Y155H mutations is limited, possibly due to the restricted ability of these drugs to ameliorate the excessive inflammatory responses. Therefore, there is an urgency to strengthen research on epidemiological surveillance and prevention strategies for avian influenza H9N2 harboring these mutations.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2026.106540

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#Maternal #vaccination against #COVID19, #influenza, #pertussis, and #RSV: a scoping review

 

Abstract

Pregnancy and early infancy are periods of heightened vulnerability, with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza infections potentially linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preterm birth and stillbirth. Maternal vaccination provides direct protection to mothers by active immunisation
and to infants by passive immunisation. This scoping review mapped and described published literature on maternal vaccination against COVID-19, influenza, pertussis, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). It includes information on the outcome domains studied and if timing of vaccination was examined, with the aim of identifying evidence gaps and supporting decision-makers in choosing priority areas for subsequent systematic review topics. A comprehensive literature search across multiple databases of studies published from January 2000 to October 2025 identified 635 publications (540 publications of primary studies, 95 evidence syntheses). Studies on COVID-19 (260 publications of studies, 45 reviews), influenza (161 publications of studies, 29 reviews), pertussis (113 publications of studies, 20 reviews), and RSV (20 publications of studies, 11 reviews) were analysed. Available evidence on COVID-19, influenza, and pertussis vaccination on efficacy, effectiveness, safety and immunogenicity outcomes is considerable. RSV vaccination evidence is limited. Updated systematic reviews would be helpful to clarify the optimal timing of COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and the effectiveness and safety of the coadministration of influenza and pertussis vaccines.

Source: 


Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-026-01545-2

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Substitutions affecting the HA–NA– #receptor #balance preceded the emergence of the #pandemic 2009 #H1N1 virus

 


Abstract

Swine are a crucial species in influenza A virus (IAV) ecology, capable of supporting replication and consequently evolution of human, avian, and swine strains. They are also the source of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09). Understanding how swine IAV breach the species barrier is essential for detection of potentially pandemic viruses, but is often overlooked compared to avian IAV. We hypothesize that the HA–NA balance of (pre)pandemic swine viruses is a key feature that needs adjustment as swine and humans differ in their sialoglycome. We focused on a set of (pre)pandemic swine viruses collected in Mexico following the H1N1pdm09 emergence. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the emergence was preceded by substitutions in HA and NA predicted to affect their function. Thus, HA acquired substitution A227E, previously shown to reduce receptor binding in H1N1pdm09, while NA obtained substitution S369N in the 2nd sialic acid binding site (2SBS) predicted to reduce NA cleavage. The substitutions’ effect on the HA–NA balance, was confirmed with biolayer interferometry using recombinant proteins attached to nanoparticles. Engineering recombinant attenuated influenza viruses with swine HA and NA with/without the mentioned substitutions, showed that the 2SBS substitution negatively affected replication in primary human and swine cultures. Interestingly, replication was restored by the HA substitution. Overall, we show that the emergence of H1N1pdm09 in humans was preceded by substitutions in HA and NA that were acquired in swine and adjusted the HA–NA balance. We hypothesize that adjustment of the HA–NA balance was a critical step for crossing the host–species barrier.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2609870123

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Sunday, September 27, 2026

Molecular evolutionary #dynamics of #coxsackievirus A16 in #Shenzhen, #China, 2012–2022

 


Highlights

    • A decade of CV-A16 molecular epidemiology in Shenzhen was analyzed.

    • Bayesian methods estimated the molecular evolutionary rate of CV-A16.

    • Transmission risk and evolutionary dynamics of CV-A16 in Shenzhen were assessed.


Abstract

Objectives

To investigate the epidemiological and genetic characteristics of coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shenzhen, China.

Methods

CVA16 was examined by a real-time RT-PCR method. Complete VP1 gene sequences of CVA16 strains were determined, and sequence analyses were performed using a series of bioinformatics programs.

Results

Of 6436 mild HFMD specimens collected between 2012 and 2022, 1395 (21.7%) were CVA16-positive, with annual detection rates ranging from 4.1% to 45.4% and peaking in 2018. Molecular phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulation of three CVA16 sub-genotypes (B1a, B1b and B3) in Shenzhen, China. The major sub-genotype was B1b from 2013 to 2019, while the sub-genotype B1a predominated in 2020-2022. Phylogenetic and sequence homology analyses suggested that re-emerging CVA16 B1a strains in Shenzhen originated from Vietnam and Thailand. The mean evolutionary rate of CVA16 strains circulating in Shenzhen was estimated at 3.604×10-3 substitutions per site per year. Distinct amino acid mutations in VP1 correlated with temporal shifts in Shenzhen's dominant CVA16 sub-genotypes: N14S/L23M for B1b, and T164K/V251I for the 2017–2022 re-emergent B1a.

Conclusion

In the post-EV-A71 vaccine era, CVA16 remains one of the major pathogens of HFMD in Shenzhen. Over the study period, the CVA16 sub-genotype in Shenzhen underwent a B1a→B1b→B1a turnover, which was associated with both imported lineages and local adaptive evolution. This study underscores the critical importance of continuous molecular surveillance for CVA16.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2026.105998

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Saturday, September 26, 2026

In silico analysis of #pH stabilising #mutations of #hemagglutinin of #influenza A virus #H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b

 


Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses are expanding their host range among mammals, raising concerns about their pandemic potential. Building on recently published deep mutational scanning data, we show that hemagglutinin retains structural plasticity to increase acid stability through independent mechanisms, including modulation of electrostatic interactions, hydrogen-bonding networks and hydrophobic packing that may facilitate human adaptation. These findings illustrate how structural analyses can strengthen genomic surveillance for pandemic risk assessment.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44298-026-00236-y

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Early insights into predicted efficacy of #Ebola monoclonal #antibodies for the 2026 #Bundibugyo virus disease #outbreak

 


Abstract

The 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the DRC and Uganda raises urgent questions about the efficacy of existing Ebola virus (EBOV) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against Bundibugyo virus (BDBV). Here, we perform genomic and structural analyses of 44 BDBV sequences, including 12 from the 2026 outbreak, to assess mAb binding to the viral glycoprotein (GP). While the MBP134 cocktail epitopes remain conserved, mAb114 (Ebanga) binding is compromised by E112D and P116A mutations, causing off-target binding and reduced affinity. Structural modeling of Inmazeb shows that while Odesivimab maintains epitope binding, Atoltivimab and Maftivimab fail to bind their designated sites individually, though the complete trimeric cocktail demonstrates BDBV synergistic binding. These computational models predict mAb114 efficacy against BDBV may be compromised due to epitope mutations affecting binding affinity, whereas MBP134 retains conserved targeting and holds promise as a broadly protective therapeutic. The complex binding behavior of Inmazeb components points to the importance of antibody combinatorial effects for treatment efficacy. These observations warrant urgent experimental validation through neutralization assays.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78077-9

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Highly Pathogenic Avian #Influenza Viruses #H5N1 and #H5N5 in Red #Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in #Norway during 2022-2024

 


Abstract

Since 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5Nx) clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have spread globally, causing extensive outbreaks in domestic and wild birds. Increased circulation has resulted in frequent spillover to mammals, and occasional mammal-to-mammal transmission. Although human infections remain rare, the zoonotic potential of these viruses continues to be a public health concern. We investigated six cases of HPAI in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Norway during 2022-2024 and identified infections with H5N1 and H5N5 viruses. Pathological and virological investigations demonstrated systemic infection, with prominent lesions in the brain and/or lungs. Phylogenetic analyses showed high similarity between viruses detected in foxes and those concurrently circulating in wild birds. The mammalian adaptation marker PB2:E627K was identified in one H5N1 virus and as a minority variant in a second H5N1 virus.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funder Information Declared

Norwegian Veterinary Institute, 12314

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.25.754393

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    Substitutions affecting the HA-NA-receptor balance preceded the emergence of the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus.
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    PubMed         Abstract available


    Vaccine

  32. SCHAFFNER W, Gravenstein S, Kissler S, Cornely OA, et al
    Multicomponent vaccination against seasonal influenza and COVID-19: a strategy to address the continued global burden of disease in adults.
    Vaccine. 2026;93:129082.
    PubMed         Abstract available


    Virology

  33. ROWE T, Ross TM
    Transcriptional decoupling of the epithelial-immune bridge is associated with suboptimal influenza B virus immunogenicity.
    Virology. 2026;625:111075.
    PubMed         Abstract available


    Virus Res

  34. WU Q, Wang ZZ, Wang ZM, Wang YH, et al
    Development and validation of a broadly cross-reactive polyclonal antibody as capture antibody for pan human beta coronavirus antigen detection.
    Virus Res. 2026;372:199786.
    PubMed         Abstract available

  35. MANEESRIWONGUL W, Deesamer S, Butsing N
    Factors influencing Thai parents' COVID-19 vaccine acceptance for their children: Vaccine attitudes, beliefs, and children's past influenza vaccination.
    Virus Res. 2026 Sep 20:199805. doi: 10.1016/j.virusres.2026.199805.
    PubMed         Abstract available

  36. JANG Y, Cha RM, Park MJ, Kim JM, et al
    Genetic Diversity of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5Nx High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses Detected in Korea During the 2025-2026 Winter Season and Pathogenicity of H5N1 and H5N9 Viruses.
    Virus Res. 2026 Sep 22:199807. doi: 10.1016/j.virusres.2026.199807.
    PubMed         Abstract available

Friday, September 25, 2026

Modelling #assessment of the different #paths of between-farm #transmission of avian #influenza HPAI in Northern #Italy in 2021--2022

 


Abstract

We propose a stochastic epidemic model to describe the spread of avian influenza in a network of poultry farms. We consider three main paths of infection transmission between poultry farms: from nearby farms, mainly through airborne diffusion; from farms belonging to the same company, through shared veterinarians, forage providers and similar; from undetected small farms or wildlife. From the parameter estimation, based on a modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm, we infer that approximately 63% of the farms were infected from nearby ones, with an infection force declining with distance; of these, more than one third belonged to the same company of the estimated infector. About 20% were infected from premises belonging to the same company but farther away than the distance threshold of 2 km; the remaining ones from wildlife or unidentified sources. These estimates have been validated by a comparison with genetic data, available for a subset of the farms: the genetic distance between two farms identified, with high probability, as an infector-infectee pair is much lower than between random pairs. These results may help in the implementation of tailored prevention and control measures for future outbreaks.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funder Information Declared

Fondazione Caritro (Cassa di Risparmio di Trento e Rovereto), Post-Doc 2024 project ``Modelli matematici di malattie infettive piu` ospiti e popolazioni eterogenee: applicazioni all'influenza aviaria''

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832

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Thursday, September 24, 2026

Field #Investigation of #Bundibugyo Virus Disease (BDBV) #Outbreak in Ituri Province, #DRC: ... An Outbreak Investigation Review

 


Abstract

Background: 

The 2026 outbreak of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease (BDBV) in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), centered in Ituri Province, represents the largest documented outbreak caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus since its discovery in Uganda in 2007. The outbreak evolved within a complex humanitarian setting characterized by armed conflict, population displacement, mining-related migration, weak health systems, extensive population mobility, and an infodemic environment marked by misinformation and reduced public trust. We conducted a field investigation to assess epidemiological, operational, laboratory, infection prevention and control (IPC), community engagement, risk communication, and infodemic management challenges and identify priority interventions to strengthen outbreak control. 

Methods: 

A rapid field assessment was conducted between 12–15 June 2026 in Bunia, Rwampara Health Zone, and the Ituri Provincial Public Health Laboratory. Data were collected through direct observation, review of surveillance and laboratory reports, health facility assessments, stakeholder interviews, and analysis of outbreak response indicators. Epidemiological trends, surveillance performance, laboratory capacity, clinical care, IPC activities, logistics, risk communication, community engagement, and infodemic management approaches were evaluated. 

Results: 

As of 12 July 2026, the outbreak had resulted in 1926 laboratory-confirmed cases and 702 deaths, corresponding to an overall case fatality rate (CFR) of 36.4% across affected provinces. Ituri Province remained the epicenter, accounting for 90.8% of confirmed cases (1705/1877) and 85.5% of reported deaths (577/675). During the preceding 24 h, 53 new confirmed cases and 30 deaths were reported, including 20 community deaths (66.7%), highlighting persistent delays in detection, referral, and access to care. Surveillance systems identified 766 alerts, of which 678 (88.5%) were investigated, resulting in 235 suspected cases. Contact tracing remained a major challenge, with only 64.4% (4171/6475) of registered contacts successfully followed, below the recommended ≥95% target. Laboratory activities included testing of 137 specimens, with 29 positive results and an overall positivity rate of 21.2%. Decentralized molecular diagnostic platforms improved access to testing; however, data inconsistencies, delayed investigations, and gaps in outcome classification affected response monitoring. Major operational challenges included limited treatment capacity, high occupancy of Ebola treatment centres, shortages of trained personnel and IPC supplies, insecurity affecting response teams, and insufficient preparedness in newly affected areas. Community resistance, attacks on burial teams, detention of frontline responders, misinformation, and rumors contributed to delayed care-seeking, reduced acceptance of public health measures, and incomplete cooperation with contact tracing. Risk communication and community engagement efforts were constrained by limited outreach capacity, language barriers, low trust, and inadequate systems for rumor detection and infodemic response. 

Conclusions: 

The ongoing BDBV outbreak in eastern DRC demonstrates the difficulty of controlling Ebola transmission in conflict-affected and socially complex settings. Sustained transmission, community deaths, geographic expansion, and operational constraints highlight the urgent need to strengthen surveillance, contact tracing, laboratory systems, IPC capacity, clinical care, and integrated risk communication and infodemic management strategies. Building trust through community-centered approaches, proactive misinformation management, and engagement of trusted local actors will be essential to accelerate outbreak containment and strengthen preparedness across the Great Lakes region.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18050100

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#Oya Virus in a Patient with Severe #Hepatitis, #Enteritis, and #Coagulopathy

 


Abstract

Oya virus, an orthobunyavirus, was identified in a 54-year-old woman who had sepsis-like symptoms, including leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia, elevated liver-function values, and disseminated intravascular coagulation.

Source: 

Link: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2602616

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Wednesday, September 23, 2026

#Estimation of the #transmission #dynamics of #H5N1 HPAI #outbreak in a dairy #herd using a modeling approach

 


Abstract

The emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI 2.3.4.4b) in dairy herds in 2024 across 19 states in the United States of America has raised concerns regarding the potential national and global zoonotic impact. All recent modeling efforts implemented homogenous cattle-to-cattle (both intra and inter-herd) transmission models which did not capture the real-world heterogeneity in mixing of animals, individual variations in susceptibility and infectiousness and clinical incidences across pens and lactation groups. The aim of this study was to develop a heterogenous transmission model to estimate the epidemiological parameters for intra-herd HPAI transmission on Californian dairies. We developed a validated stochastic agent-based model to estimate the epidemiological parameters for intra-herd HPAI transmission on California dairies. The hierarchical agent-based model also parameterized stochastic cattle movements within-herd to simulate real dairy management practices. A cow-level SEIR transmission approach was assumed during the outbreak. A novel Bayesian Optimizer with Gaussian Process (BO-GP) was fitted to the agent-based model for validation which converged within 25-40 iterations (out of 100 per farm) with minimal loss over two distinct error metrics, namely, Poisson loss function and temporal distance metric. Our optimized simulations estimated an average R0 was around 10.7-10.8 across all farms within the first 15 days of observed outbreak on four dairy farms with a mean effective transmission rate of 4.5% per contact between susceptible and infectious cows within each pen. Our model demonstrated that the movement of cows between pens ensured localized clusters of outbreaks within the sub-herds (pen population) that prolonged the overall outbreak within farms. We estimated the total duration of infection between 14.5 and 28 days, which is higher than the estimates from the homogenous models. With an integrated hierarchical agent-based model combined with Bayesian approximation, we produced actionable insights on the epidemiology of intra-farm spread of HPAI within cow herds, thereby guiding both future model development and applied disease control strategy.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funder Information Declared

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS), AP25VSD&B000C007

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.22.753543

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Comparison of #Baloxavir-Based Combinations and Monotherapies for Treating #Influenza #H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus #Infection in Mice

 


Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus continues to cause animal outbreaks and sporadic zoonotic infections. In a mouse model of lethal influenza disease, we compared oseltamivir, baloxavir, and molnupiravir monotherapies with 2-drug combinations. Baloxavir-based combinations improved survival, reduced lung viral loads, and prevented extrapulmonary dissemination, supporting H5N1 preparedness strategies.

Source: 


Link: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid3210.260186

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