Skip to main content

Mapping #global emergence of #pathogens with #epidemic and #pandemic #potential to inform and accelerate pandemic #prevention, #preparedness, readiness and response

Image
By G.M.

 


Abstract

Introduction 

Increasing occurrence of epidemics and pandemics and concurrent emergence of different pathogens calls for multi-sectoral, multi-pathogen preparedness actions. Data on various factors that drive emergence of diverse pathogens can inform evidence-based preparedness by identifying geographies at-risk. When leveraging evidence within a One Health approach, multiple pathogens can be addressed simultaneously, thereby strengthening countries pandemic preparedness efforts. 

Methods 

For seventeen priority pathogens (avian influenza viruses, zoonotic coronaviruses including COVID-19, hemorrhagic fever viruses including Ebola, Henipaviruses, and arboviruses including yellow fever and Zika), we identified global evidence on animal reservoirs, vectors, environmental suitability, and reported human cases. We discriminated geospatially recorded pathogen detections from a background sample and constructed maps using these datasets to generate an evidence-based assessment of emergence risk globally. 

Results 

Seventeen pathogen-specific assessments were combined into a global composite map. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have evidence supporting emergence risk for the greatest number of pathogens (included areas at-risk of all pathogens) and scored highest when strength-of-evidence weightings were factored. The Americas had the lowest tally of considered pathogens. Environmental suitability analyses received the highest weights, reservoir ranges the lowest. 

Discussion 

Preparedness and readiness must consider the range of global biological threats. Our methodology is capable of incorporating changing evidence on emergence potential for multiple pathogens to identify geographies at higher risk with different pathogen combinations. Our maps can contribute to existing decision-support structures, guiding shared interventions and strategic allocation of resources for spillover prevention and pandemic preparedness, thereby enhancing local response capacities applying a multidisciplinary approach.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.


Funding Statement

This work was concluded in 2024 and supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) before January 22, 2025, the Germany Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Government of France.

Source: 


Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.20.26347940v1

____

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

#Neuroinvasive #Oropouche virus in a patient with #HIV from extra-Amazonian #Brazil

By G.M.
{Excerpt} A novel reassortant Oropouche virus (OROV) lineage (with medium [M], large [L], and small [S] RNA segments : M1L2S2) has driven Brazil's largest and most geographically widespread OROV epidemic , expanding beyond the endemic Amazon basin to establish local transmission across multiple Brazilian states and other previously unaffected Latin American countries . The rapid spread of this lineage underscores its evolutionary potential and reinforces its significance as a public health threat .1 Similar to chikungunya and Zika viruses, expanding arboviruses can exhibit unexpected clinical and epidemiological shifts , including vertical transmissions , neuroinvasive effects, and potentially fatal outcomes.2–4 Although OROV typically causes self-limited febrile illness, accumulating clinical and experimental evidence suggests neurotropic potential .5 This Correspondence describes the first confirmed case of neuroinvasive OROV infection caused by the emergent M1L2S2 lineage in ext...
Post a Comment
Read more »

No evidence of immune #exhaustion after repeated #SARS-CoV-2 #vaccination in vulnerable and healthy populations

By G.M.
Abstract Frequent SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in vulnerable populations has raised concerns that this may contribute to T cell exhaustion , which could negatively affect the quality of immune protection. Herein, we examined the impact of repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on T cell phenotypic and functional exhaustion in frail older adults in long-term care (n = 23), individuals on immunosuppressive drugs (n = 10), and healthy adults (n = 43), in Canada . Spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell levels did not decline in any cohort following repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, nor did the expression of exhaustion markers on spike-specific or total T cells increase. T cell production of multiple cytokines (i.e. polyfunctionality) in response to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 did not decline in any cohort following repeated vaccination. None of the cohorts displayed elevated levels of terminally differentiated T cells following multiple SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations. Thus, repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was...
Post a Comment
Read more »

Chimeric #hemagglutinin and #M2 #mRNA #vaccine for broad #influenza subtype protection

By G.M.
Abstract Since multiple and unpredicted influenza viruses cause seasonal epidemics and even high-risk pandemics , developing a universal influenza vaccine is essential to provide broad protection against various influenza subtypes. Combined with the mRNA lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated (mRNA-LNP) vaccine platform and chimeric immunogen strategy , we developed a novel cocktail mRNA vaccine encoding chimeric HAs (cH5/1-BV, cH7/3) and intact M2 (termed Fluaxe), which confers broad protection against major circulating IAVs and IBVs , as well as highly pathogenic avian influenza . Two-dose intramuscular immunization of Fluaxe in mice elicited cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies , T cell responses, and long-lived immunity, resulting in robust protection against multiple lethal influenza virus infections and severe acute lung injuries . In particular, intramuscular administration stimulated systemic immunity together with a prominent lung tropism of memory cells . Moreover, Fluaxe immuniza...
Post a Comment
Read more »