Deep #disadvantage in #mortality on the frontlines of the #COVID19 #pandemic

 

Abstract

This study presents new evidence on the temporal and spatial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among especially vulnerable New Yorkers. Using burial records from Hart Island—the City’s potter’s field—we study the distribution of unclaimed deaths over time and across boroughs in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels. We show that the Hart Island deaths began deviating from their historical pattern in early March 2020 and peaked five weeks later at 22 deaths for every death in the same week in 2019 (20:1 adjusted). COVID-19 excess death rates were more than twice as high in the Bronx compared to other boroughs. Citywide, we estimate that 10% of all COVID-related excess deaths during the initial outbreak (March–August 2020) were unclaimed. These findings suggest the pandemic greatly magnified existing inequalities in the City and, more broadly, illustrate the especially devastating impact of COVID-19 on economically and socially vulnerable populations.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-41219-6

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‘Our problem here is the #pig #Ebola’: local accounts of #epizootics preceding Ebola #outbreaks in north-eastern #DRC

 

Abstract

Introduction 

Despite their potential relevance for outbreak understanding, epizootic reports associated with Ebola scarcely appear in biomedical literature. This study examines local accounts of animal deaths preceding the 2012 and the 2017 Ebola outbreaks in the north-eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Methods 

The analysis is based on retrospective interviews conducted with scientists deployed during these two Ebola outbreaks, as well as testimonies collected in 2022 and 2023 from local residents, clinicians and veterinarians. It also draws on local archives to examine how reports of animal deaths were framed and understood in light of a new epidemic situation.

Results 

Selective pressures that favour certain wild animal species, along with social practices such as bushmeat hunting, contribute to a narrowing of focus during outbreak investigations. This has contributed to overlooking some testimonies from marginalised local actors, which remain unpublished to this day. Animal death reports, however, need to be read in their social context. During the 2017 Ebola outbreak, local breeders framed their concerns about pig mortality into a question to be addressed by global health researchers—even though the deaths were not linked to Ebola but were likely caused by an unrelated pathogen, the African swine fever virus.

Conclusion 

Beyond their biological relevance, epizootics can offer insight into the social contexts in which epidemics are identified. These epizootics can shed light on local experiences of diseases, illustrating local priorities and sense-making processes.

Data availability statement

Data sharing is not applicable as no data sets were generated and/or analysed for this study.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/medhum-2025-013586

Footnotes

Contributors: JV conceptualised the study, conducted the research and wrote the manuscript. JV is the guarantor.

Funding: The author received support from Sciences Po Medialab and IFAS (Institut Français d'Afrique du Sud) for fieldwork in the DRC in 2022 and 2023.

Competing interests: None declared.

Patient and public involvement: Patients and/or the public were involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research. Refer to the Methods section for further details.

Provenance and peer review: Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

Source: 

Link: https://mh.bmj.com/content/early/2026/04/01/medhum-2025-013586

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Evaluating the broader #impact of improved #influenza #vaccines: A full value of vaccine #assessment approach

 

Highlights

• Global Health Impact: Improved influenza vaccines have the potential to avert between 6.6 and 18 billion additional influenza cases, prevent 2.3 to 6.2 million additional deaths, and save 21 to 57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines

• Cost-Effectiveness: Depending on the price, coverage, and vaccine characteristics, improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9 to 48 % of countries, offering substantial global economic value under most scenarios

• Financial Viability: The development and commercialization of improved influenza vaccines present a robust financial value proposition, with positive net present value (NPV) across all vaccine profiles

• Policy and Decision Making: Vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and breadth of protection are key factors influencing the adoption of improved influenza vaccines in national immunization programs

• Implementation Challenges: Addressing barriers such as vaccine hesitancy, financial constraints, and logistical difficulties is crucial for maximizing the health and economic benefits of improved influenza vaccines

Abstract

Seasonal influenza remains a significant global public health challenge, causing substantial morbidity and mortality each year and there remains a need for more effective and durable influenza vaccines. To direct and accelerate research efforts, a full value of vaccine assessment (FVVA) was initiated to quantify the value of next-generation, improved influenza vaccines and identify key challenges that may limit their uptake once available. The FVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews, and surveys, and quantitative data analysis to estimate the full value of influenza vaccines with improved characteristics. These analyses found that if improved influenza vaccines are broadly employed, depending on their characteristics, using our demand forecast they could avert 6.6–18 billion additional influenza cases, 2.3–6.2 million additional influenza deaths, and 21–57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2025 and 2050 beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines. Under this scenario, introducing improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9–48 % of countries at the lowest assumed price point. However, uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage may impact the potential cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, from the producer perspective, the FVVA highlighted the robust financial value proposition to develop and commercialize improved influenza vaccines, in both established and emerging markets. Strongly tiered prices could make these vaccines cost-effective in more countries and boost impact further. To ensure that improved influenza vaccines achieve the greatest public health benefit, effective collaboration between vaccine developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, multilateral organisations, and policy- and decision-makers will be essential.

Source: 

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X25014641

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An #outbreak of highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5N1 could impact the dairy #cattle sector and the broader #economy in the #USA

 

Abstract

The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle poses substantial risks to public health, economic sustainability of farming, and global food systems. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we simulate its short- to medium-term impacts on Gross Domestic Product and other macro-economic outcomes for the US and its main trading partners. We simulate impacts under the current situation and realistic and reasonable worst-case scenarios. We estimate domestic economic losses ranging between 0.06% and 0.9% of US GDP, with losses to the dairy sector ranging between 3.4% and 20.6%. Trading partners increase dairy production to compensate for the loss. Current government subsidies are about 1.2% (95% HDI: 1% to 1.4%) of output losses, and likely insufficient to incentivise farmers to step up surveillance and biosecurity for mitigating the possible emergence of H5N1 strains with pandemic potential into human populations.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03153-9

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#Antigenic #Drift and Antivaccine Shift in the 2025–2026 #Influenza Season

 

{Summary}

Recent headlines about influenza have reported a “super flu” causing a “record-breaking season” that is “overwhelming hospitals.” Although less dramatic, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveal substantial influenza activity: the agency estimated that there were more than 20 million cases of influenza illness, 270,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 11,000 deaths from influenza in the United States through January 24, 2026. These numbers aren’t extraordinary as compared with those from previous seasons, but some indicators of influenza activity and severity have been remarkable.

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Source: 

Link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2600395?query=TOC

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#Potential and #challenges for sustainable #progress in human #longevity

 

Abstract

Decelerating gains in life expectancy (e0) in high-income countries have raised concerns about the future of human longevity. To enhance our understanding of these developments, we examine subnational (N = 450) mortality trends in Western Europe in the period 1992-2019. Between 1992 and 2005, gains in life expectancy were both substantial and widespread. Laggard regions experienced the fastest improvements, yielding rapid regional convergence. Between 2005 and 2019, however, gains in these regions decelerated, while remaining remarkably stable in vanguard regions, suggesting that it remains possible to continue extending longevity. The observed slowing of e0 gains is strongly associated with mortality at ages 55-74, which increased in this period across large areas of Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France. In this work, we show that monitoring mortality trends at a fine geographical level is crucial for revealing both the potential for, and challenges to, sustainable progress in human longevity.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68828-z

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