#Taiwan CDC: The #WMO predicts a strong #ElNiño event this year, which is conducive to spread of #arboviral diseases (July 7 '26)

 

    The latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that El Niño may intensify further in the coming months, potentially developing into a strong El Niño. 

    El Niño could further raise global temperatures and alter atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events. 

    Some regions may face disasters such as short-duration heavy rainfall, torrential rain, and flooding due to more concentrated rainfall, while other regions may experience drought and water shortages. 

    International research shows that the high temperatures, warm winter, and abnormal rainfall brought about by El Niño may affect the growth and reproduction of disease-carrying mosquitoes, increasing the risk of dengue fever transmission. 

    Rising temperatures may shorten the growth cycle of disease-carrying mosquitoes, accelerating their reproduction rate; high temperatures may also shorten the time required for the dengue virus to multiply in mosquitoes to become infectious, increasing the chances of virus transmission. 

    On the other hand, after heavy rainfall, torrential rain, or continuous rainfall, various types of stagnant water environments easily form both indoors and outdoors, increasing the breeding opportunities for disease-carrying mosquitoes. 

    Due to the El Niño phenomenon facilitating dengue fever transmission and the ongoing international outbreaks of dengue fever and other mosquito-borne infectious diseases, coupled with the peak summer travel season, the public is urged to take mosquito prevention measures while traveling abroad and seek medical attention immediately if they experience any symptoms upon returning home, in order to jointly prevent dengue fever.

    Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that as of July 6th this year, there have been a total of 83 confirmed dengue fever cases, including 7 local cases, all residing in Kaohsiung City; and 76 imported cases, all from Southeast and South Asian countries, with Indonesia (21 cases) being the most numerous, followed by the Maldives (14 cases) and Vietnam (11 cases). 

    The cumulative number of cases this year is lower than the same period last year (2025) (91 cases). 

    The global dengue fever outbreak remains severe, with over 1.44 million cases reported as of May this year. 

    The majority of cases are in the Americas, with Brazil having the highest number, followed by Bolivia and Colombia. 

    Neighboring Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Laos have recently seen an increase in cases, with many exceeding the number from the same period last year, and showing a trend of co-circulation of multiple serotypes (DENV). 

    Given the current rainy season in Southeast Asia, the overall outbreak is expected to remain at its peak. 

    Health authorities are closely monitoring mosquito density in communities and strengthening patrols and prevention efforts in high-risk areas.

    The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) explained that with recent persistent high temperatures and frequent afternoon thunderstorms across Taiwan, post-rain environmental cleanup is crucial for dengue fever prevention. 

    Residents should proactively inspect their homes and surrounding areas, thoroughly removing water-collecting containers such as flowerpot saucers, discarded tires, and other stacked items. 

    Unused containers should be turned upside down or properly stored. A second inspection should be conducted after rain to ensure thorough cleaning and prevent mosquitoes from laying eggs and breeding.

    The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reminds the public that the current climate is suitable for mosquito breeding and activity. 

    When engaging in outdoor activities, the public is advised to wear light-colored long-sleeved clothing and use government-approved mosquito repellents containing effective ingredients such as DEET, Picaridin, or Imamectin (IR-3535). 

    If you experience symptoms resembling dengue fever, such as fever, headache, retro-orbital pain, or muscle and joint pain, please seek medical attention immediately and inform your doctor of your travel history. 

    Medical institutions are also urged to be vigilant, implement TOCC (travel, occupation, contact, and social contact) inquiries, use the dengue NS1 rapid test kit to aid diagnosis, and report cases promptly to facilitate timely prevention and control measures by health authorities. 

    Furthermore, given the ongoing international dengue fever outbreak, if you experience symptoms resembling dengue fever, such as fever, headache, muscle and joint pain, or rash upon arrival in Taiwan, please inform airport quarantine personnel. 

    For information related to dengue fever, please visit the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website (https://www.cdc.gov.tw) or call the toll-free epidemic prevention hotline 1922 (0800-001922).

Source: 

Link: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/iheCGS59dCugdGfswWuh5Q?typeid=9

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Decade-long #warming accelerates #antibiotic #resistance in #grassland soils

 

Abstract

Soils are critical reservoirs of antibiotic-resistance genes (ARGs), which are strongly shaped by microbial interactions and environmental conditions and are therefore highly sensitive to disturbance. Although climate warming is recognized as one of the most significant disturbances to microbial communities and their functions, its impacts on soil resistomes remain poorly understood. Here we investigated the effects of decade-long experimental warming on ARGs in grassland soils using integrated experimental and computational approaches. Our results revealed that ARG abundance substantially increased (23.9%) under warming—particularly glycopeptide- and rifamycin-resistance genes. Warming specifically enriched Actinomycetota hosts, including various potential plant pathogens, and enhanced ARG mobility. Large-scale unprecedented isolates-based phenotypic analyses also validated that warming increased bacterial resistance to multiple antibiotics. Further mechanistic analyses revealed that warming increased ARG abundance primarily through co-selection of resistance genes physically linked to adaptive traits (for example, thermal tolerance and nitrogen assimilation) and positive selection for thermal tolerance genes, which could be further amplified via horizontal gene transfer. Together, these findings convincingly demonstrate that climate warming substantially accelerates soil antibiotic resistance at genomic, ecological and evolutionary levels, with broad implications for public health and environmental sustainability in a warming world.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10413-x

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Predicting highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5N1 #outbreak #risk using extreme #weather and bird #migration data in machine learning models

 

Abstract

Background. 

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events (EWEs) with potentially profound consequences for zoonotic disease dynamics, yet the mechanisms linking EWEs to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks remain poorly characterized. The ongoing H5N1 panzootic, responsible for infection in over 500 avian and mammalian species, as well as nearly 1000 human cases and 477 deaths worldwide, provides a critical opportunity to evaluate how climate conditions shape spillover risk at landscape scales. 

Methods. 

We compiled a county-month dataset of confirmed H5N1 detections across the contiguous United States from 2022 to 2024 and integrated it with satellite-derived climate metrics, storm event data, and wild bird activity data. We trained and validated a gradient boosting machine classifier to predict outbreak risk and characterize predictor relationships. 

Results. 

Our model achieved strong discriminative performance (AUC-ROC = 0.856; AUC-PR = 0.237, representing a 7-fold improvement over chance) and high recall (0.726), supporting its utility as an early warning tool. Human population and temperature-related variables were the most influential predictors: cold temperature shocks and prolonged low temperatures were consistently associated with elevated outbreak risk, likely through enhanced environmental viral persistence, wild bird habitat compression, and allostatic stress-driven immunosuppression in reservoir hosts. Among storm variables, high wind coverage elevated risk, potentially via aerosol dispersal of contaminated particulates, while tornado activity showed an inverse relationship, consistent with documented avoidant behavior in migratory birds. Wild bird reservoir density showed a strong positive monotonic relationship with outbreak risk. 

Conclusions. 

Our analyses demonstrate that routinely available environmental and infection data can be used to predict HPAI outbreak risk at fine spatiotemporal scales. These findings demonstrate the divergent roles of short- versus long-term environmental exposures in HPAI spillover dynamics, as well as the potential for machine learning-based surveillance tools to inform targeted biosecurity interventions and early warning systems.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This research was supported by a subaward agreement between prime award recipient Boston University (PI: Gregory Wellenius) and the subaward recipient Regents of the University of Colorado (PI: Elise Grover) under the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences of the National Institutes of Health, Award Number U24ES035309 -01. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Source: 

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.30.26349797v1

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The paradoxical #impact of #drought on #WNV #risk: insights from long-term ecological data

 

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are deeply embedded within ecological communities, with environmental changes—particularly climate change—shaping their dynamics. Increasingly intense droughts across the globe have profound implications for the transmission of these diseases, as drought conditions can alter mosquito breeding habitats, host-seeking behaviours and mosquito–host contact rates. To quantify the effect of drought on disease transmission, we use West Nile virus as a model system and leverage a robust mosquito and virus dataset consisting of over 500 000 trap nights collected from 2010 to 2023, spanning a historic drought period followed by atmospheric rivers. We pair this surveillance dataset with a novel modelling approach that incorporates monthly changes in bird host community competence, along with drought conditions, to estimate the effect of drought severity on West Nile virus risk using panel regression models. Our results show that while drought decreases mosquito abundances, it paradoxically increases West Nile virus infection rates. This counterintuitive pattern probably stems from reduced water availability, which concentrates mosquitoes and pathogen-amplifying bird hosts around limited water sources, thereby increasing disease transmission risk. However, the magnitude of the effect depends critically on mosquito species, suggesting species-specific behavioural traits are key to understanding the effect of drought on mosquito-borne disease risk across real landscapes.

Source: Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2025.1365?af=R

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