Accelerating #biomass loss from #forest disturbances across #Europe

 

Abstract

Forest disturbances are rising globally due to climate change and land-use pressures, weakening the terrestrial carbon sink. However, declines in aboveground biomass from tree cover loss remain poorly quantified, limiting our understanding of the role of disturbances in global carbon dynamics. Here we present a spatially explicit estimate of aboveground biomass losses from natural disturbances and harvest across Europe’s 216 million hectares of forests, using satellite remote sensing. From 1985 to 2023, gross aboveground biomass losses totalled 6.5 ± 0.8 Pg. Of these, 18% were caused by high-severity natural disturbances, whereas stand-replacing harvests accounted for 82%. From 2018 onward, aboveground biomass losses increased by 46% reaching annual values unprecedented in the preceding four decades. This acceleration coincided with high natural disturbance activity in biomass-rich temperate forests. After 2018, the sensitivity of aboveground biomass loss to disturbance area increased substantially, suggesting that even small increases in natural disturbances can result in large losses. As climate-driven natural disturbances intensify, we thus expect sustained aboveground biomass losses across Europe, despite policies to enhance the forest carbon sink until 2030.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02032-y

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Interim #heat #mortality monitoring #report, #England: May and June 2026 (UKHSA, July 30 '26)

{Excerpt}

Published 30 July 2026

Main points

    ° During the May and June 2026 heat events:

        § there were an estimated total of 2,877 heat-associated deaths

        § an estimated 753 heat-associated deaths occurred during the May heat episode

        § an estimated 2,124 heat-associated deaths occurred during the June heat episode

        § the mortality burden is already close to the highest annual totals previously recorded by UKHSA

What you need to know about this report

    ° This interim report focuses on total heat-associated mortality estimates for the May and June 2026 heat episodes.

    ° Detailed demographic, geographic and cause-specific analyses, and comparisons with UKHSA modelled estimates, are outside the scope of this publication.

    ° Final figures of heat-associated deaths during heat episodes in 2026 will be published early in 2027.

Reason for this interim report

    The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) produces the annual heat mortality monitoring report. These are official statistics that provide estimates of heat-associated mortality during heat episodes in England. These estimates support understanding of the public health impacts of hot weather and inform future preparedness and response activities.

    During summer 2026, England experienced 2 notable heat events, one in May and the other in June, both of which were exceptional for different reasons. 

    The May heat event occurred unusually early in the season, with record-breaking temperatures following a period of unseasonably cool weather. 

    The June event was characterised by its intensity and formed part of a broader period of sustained hot weather across Europe. Given the public health significance of these events, and the considerable interest from policymakers, partners and the public, UKHSA has produced this interim report to provide an early assessment of heat-associated mortality. Such early assessments will only be undertaken following extraordinary periods of heat and would not normally be produced for routine heat events.

    Although this report has been produced using the same data sources, analytical methods and quality assurance processes as the annual heat mortality monitoring report, the estimates should be regarded as preliminary and operational in nature. 

    At the time of analysis, mortality data remains incomplete because of routine delays in death registration. Also, estimates for the June heat event are subject to additional uncertainty due to limited availability of non-heat period days for baseline comparison. The definitive assessment of mortality associated with these events will be published in the annual official statistics report in early 2027.

    This interim report focuses on headline estimates of heat-associated mortality. Detailed breakdowns by age, sex, geography, place of death and cause of death are not included because the analysis is based on provisional death registration data that has been adjusted for reporting delays. 

    Registration delays can vary between population groups, causes of death and geographical areas, and applying appropriate delay corrections across all breakdowns would introduce additional complexity and uncertainty into the estimates. 

    In addition, this report does not include comparisons between observed heat-associated mortality and UKHSA modelled mortality estimates. These assessments require more comprehensive analysis and are therefore reserved for the annual publication. More detailed analyses will be provided in the annual official statistics publication once more complete mortality datais available.

    The estimates presented in this report are therefore expected to differ from final numbers as additional death registrations are received and processed in the annual heat mortality monitoring report.  

(...)

Source: 

Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/interim-heat-mortality-monitoring-report-england-may-and-june-2026/interim-heat-mortality-monitoring-report-england-may-and-june-2026

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#Climatechange as an amplifier of #hantavirus #risk in South #Asia: a neglected nexus

 

Abstract

Hantavirus is seroepidemiologically established in South Asian human populations and rodent reservoirs, with anti-hantavirus antibodies confirmed in occupational risk groups in India, an independent association with chronic kidney disease demonstrated in Sri Lanka, and co-infection with leptospirosis identified in more than one-fifth of hospitalized leptospirosis patients. Despite this, the intersection of these findings with the region’s intensifying monsoon floods, rapid urbanization, and climate-driven rodent ecology remains entirely unexamined. This letter highlights the neglected climate−hantavirus nexus, identifies structural vulnerabilities that amplify transmission risk in South Asia, and calls for integrated flood-response surveillance and One Health coordination across the region.

Source: 

Link: https://academic.oup.com/trstmh/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/trstmh/trag082/8746591?redirectedFrom=fulltext

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#WHO Rapid #Risk #Assessment - #Heatwave, WHO European Region v.1 (July 25 '26, summary): 10,650 excess deaths estimated so far

{Excerpts}

Risk statement  

    ° This rapid risk assessment aims to assess the overall public health risk posed by the 2026 heatwaves in the WHO European Region.  

    ° It considers the potential health impact, particularly among vulnerable population groups, the geographic scope and severity of the event, population vulnerabilities, available prevention and control capacities, and seasonal and environmental factors that may exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality.  

    ° The 2026 European heatwave is assessed as presenting a moderate public health risk across the WHO European Region, with high confidence. 

    ° Widespread and prolonged extreme temperatures across Europe, affecting large parts of Western, Central and Southern Europe, have resulted in substantial population exposure and are associated with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality, including reported excess deaths. 

    ° Several countries have recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C and activated high-level heat-health warnings and emergency response measures. 

    ° Preliminary European Mortality Monitoring network (EURO MOMO) data indicate substantial excess mortality associated with the 2026 heatwaves. 

    ° Approximately 10,650 excess deaths were estimated during 22–28 June 2026, including more than 9,000 among adults aged 65 years and older. 

    ° Across the two-week period of peak temperatures, European mortality surveillance estimates indicated more than 14,000 excess deaths, highlighting the substantial mortality impact of prolonged and extreme heat exposure.  

    ° The public health impacts of the current heatwaves are expected to vary across and within countries. 

    ° The greatest adverse health impacts are expected in severely affected countries and subnational areas, particularly in densely populated urban settings, where extreme daytime temperatures persist, night-time cooling is limited, population vulnerability is increased, and heat-health response measures are insufficient or not fully implemented. 

    ° Existing healthsystem preparedness and response capacity, including early warning, public health measures, outreach to vulnerable groups and continuity arrangements, can reduce impacts; however, healthcare facility capacity alone is insufficient to mitigate heat-related health risks. 

    ° The likelihood of significant health impacts is high wherever extreme temperatures persist, especially in the absence of comprehensive preparedness and response measures.   

    ° Extreme heat may also interact with other environmental and meteorological hazards, creating compound and cascading risks. 

    ° Heatwaves may contribute to atmospheric instability that can be followed by severe thunderstorms, intense rainfall, flash flooding, landslides and windstorms.   

    ° Heat events may coincide with drought, water stress, high ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and air pollution, including vegetation fire smoke. 

    ° These hazards can further increase morbidity and mortality, disrupt essential services, damage infrastructure, and complicate emergency response. 

    ° Recent observations across Europe, including repeated episodes of vegetation fires and severe convective storms following heat events, underscore the need for integrated multi-hazard preparedness and response. 

    ° As the event continues, heat-related morbidity, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations, and mortality are expected to increase further in affected areas, particularly among populations at increased risk. 

    ° Heatwaves may place additional pressure on healthcare delivery through increased demand for emergency and medical services, overheating of healthcare and long-term care facilities, increased energy demand, potential disruption of cooling systems, impacts on medicine and vaccine storage, and heat stress among healthcare workers. 

    ° Heat-related impacts extend beyond the health sector and may affect energy, water, transport, food systems, workplaces, schools and social services. 

    ° Power disruptions may compromise cooling, medical equipment and healthcare operations, while water stress may affect hydration, hygiene and cooling access. 

    ° Transport disruptions may limit access to healthcare, cooling centres and social support.   

    ° Despite broad population exposure across Europe, the health impacts of heatwaves are not evenly distributed and are largely determined by individual vulnerability, living conditions, occupational exposure and access to protective measures. 

    ° Populations at increased risk include: 

        § older adults, 

        § persons with underlying cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, diabetes-related or mental health conditions, 

        § infants and young children, 

        § pregnant women, 

        § migrants, refugees and displaced populations, 

        § homeless persons, 

        § informal and outdoor workers, 

        § people living in poor-quality or overcrowded housing and socially isolated individuals.  

    ° Although heatwaves are typically acute events lasting days to weeks, their direct health impacts can be immediate and severe, with short-term increases in heat-related morbidity, emergency medical calls, emergency department visits, hospital admissions and mortality. 

    ° Heat can also exacerbate chronic diseases, increase dehydration and heatstroke, worsen mental health and sleep disruption, and increase indirect risks such as drowning, occupational injuries, foodsafety problems and disruption to essential services. 

    ° Longer-term public health consequences, such as changes in the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases, are less likely to arise from a single heatwave event but warrant continued surveillance, particularly when extreme heat is accompanied by environmental changes, water scarcity, altered human behavior, or shifts in vector distribution and activity. 

    ° Importantly, the public health significance of heatwaves extends beyond their immediate effects, as these events are increasing in both frequency and intensity across Europe. 

    ° Consequently, repeated and more severe heatwave episodes may contribute to cumulative health risks and broader environmental and ecological changes.  

    ° Heatwaves are predictable hazards, and timely implementation of heat-health action plans can substantially reduce their impact. 

    ° Weather forecasts and early warning systems should support targeted heat-health alerts, risk communication, outreach to vulnerable groups, workers' protection measures, continuity planning for health and social care services, access to cooling spaces and drinking water, and coordination across relevant sectors. 

    ° Response planning should also consider co-occurring environmental factors, including high humidity, poor air quality, ozone, wildfire smoke, water stress, elevated night-time temperatures, and storms, which may further increase health risks and complicate public-health messaging.  

    ° The public health risk associated with the 2026 heatwaves is heterogeneous across the WHO European Region, reflecting differences in climatic conditions, population vulnerability, exposure patterns, infrastructure, and public health preparedness:  

        • The highest risk is assessed in areas where prolonged extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity, particularly densely populated urban areas with persistent high daytime and night-time temperatures, poor housing conditions, limited access to cooling, high levels of social vulnerability, substantial occupational heat exposure, and insufficient heat-health response mechanisms. 

        • Moderate risk is assessed in areas experiencing less intense heat where preparedness and response measures are stronger. However, northern and traditionally cooler countries may still experience significant increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality during unusually high temperatures because populations, buildings and services are generally less adapted to extreme heat. (e.g., the 2018 Scandinavian heatwave saw notable mortality despite lower absolute temperatures).  

        • In Central Asia, the risk is moderate but expected to increase as the summer progresses, as extreme heat events typically intensify later in summer season. Early warning systems and timely implementation of heat-health response measures may help mitigate the expected health impact. 

    ° Based on the current meteorological, epidemiological and public health information, the overall risk associated with the 2026 heatwave is assessed as “Moderate” in the WHO European Region, and as “Low” at the global level,  with a high level of confidence in both assessments. The rapid risk assessment will be updated as additional information becomes available. 

(...)

{1} Confidence refers to the level of confidence in the data/information or the quality of the evidence available at the time the RRA is conducted. Poor quality information may increase the overall perceived risk due to the incertitude in the assessment.  

Source: 

Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-rapid-risk-assessment---heatwave--who-european-region-v.1

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#Taiwan CDC: The #WMO predicts a strong #ElNiño event this year, which is conducive to spread of #arboviral diseases (July 7 '26)

 

    The latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that El Niño may intensify further in the coming months, potentially developing into a strong El Niño. 

    El Niño could further raise global temperatures and alter atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events. 

    Some regions may face disasters such as short-duration heavy rainfall, torrential rain, and flooding due to more concentrated rainfall, while other regions may experience drought and water shortages. 

    International research shows that the high temperatures, warm winter, and abnormal rainfall brought about by El Niño may affect the growth and reproduction of disease-carrying mosquitoes, increasing the risk of dengue fever transmission. 

    Rising temperatures may shorten the growth cycle of disease-carrying mosquitoes, accelerating their reproduction rate; high temperatures may also shorten the time required for the dengue virus to multiply in mosquitoes to become infectious, increasing the chances of virus transmission. 

    On the other hand, after heavy rainfall, torrential rain, or continuous rainfall, various types of stagnant water environments easily form both indoors and outdoors, increasing the breeding opportunities for disease-carrying mosquitoes. 

    Due to the El Niño phenomenon facilitating dengue fever transmission and the ongoing international outbreaks of dengue fever and other mosquito-borne infectious diseases, coupled with the peak summer travel season, the public is urged to take mosquito prevention measures while traveling abroad and seek medical attention immediately if they experience any symptoms upon returning home, in order to jointly prevent dengue fever.

    Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that as of July 6th this year, there have been a total of 83 confirmed dengue fever cases, including 7 local cases, all residing in Kaohsiung City; and 76 imported cases, all from Southeast and South Asian countries, with Indonesia (21 cases) being the most numerous, followed by the Maldives (14 cases) and Vietnam (11 cases). 

    The cumulative number of cases this year is lower than the same period last year (2025) (91 cases). 

    The global dengue fever outbreak remains severe, with over 1.44 million cases reported as of May this year. 

    The majority of cases are in the Americas, with Brazil having the highest number, followed by Bolivia and Colombia. 

    Neighboring Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Laos have recently seen an increase in cases, with many exceeding the number from the same period last year, and showing a trend of co-circulation of multiple serotypes (DENV). 

    Given the current rainy season in Southeast Asia, the overall outbreak is expected to remain at its peak. 

    Health authorities are closely monitoring mosquito density in communities and strengthening patrols and prevention efforts in high-risk areas.

    The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) explained that with recent persistent high temperatures and frequent afternoon thunderstorms across Taiwan, post-rain environmental cleanup is crucial for dengue fever prevention. 

    Residents should proactively inspect their homes and surrounding areas, thoroughly removing water-collecting containers such as flowerpot saucers, discarded tires, and other stacked items. 

    Unused containers should be turned upside down or properly stored. A second inspection should be conducted after rain to ensure thorough cleaning and prevent mosquitoes from laying eggs and breeding.

    The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reminds the public that the current climate is suitable for mosquito breeding and activity. 

    When engaging in outdoor activities, the public is advised to wear light-colored long-sleeved clothing and use government-approved mosquito repellents containing effective ingredients such as DEET, Picaridin, or Imamectin (IR-3535). 

    If you experience symptoms resembling dengue fever, such as fever, headache, retro-orbital pain, or muscle and joint pain, please seek medical attention immediately and inform your doctor of your travel history. 

    Medical institutions are also urged to be vigilant, implement TOCC (travel, occupation, contact, and social contact) inquiries, use the dengue NS1 rapid test kit to aid diagnosis, and report cases promptly to facilitate timely prevention and control measures by health authorities. 

    Furthermore, given the ongoing international dengue fever outbreak, if you experience symptoms resembling dengue fever, such as fever, headache, muscle and joint pain, or rash upon arrival in Taiwan, please inform airport quarantine personnel. 

    For information related to dengue fever, please visit the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control website (https://www.cdc.gov.tw) or call the toll-free epidemic prevention hotline 1922 (0800-001922).

Source: 

Link: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/iheCGS59dCugdGfswWuh5Q?typeid=9

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Decade-long #warming accelerates #antibiotic #resistance in #grassland soils

 

Abstract

Soils are critical reservoirs of antibiotic-resistance genes (ARGs), which are strongly shaped by microbial interactions and environmental conditions and are therefore highly sensitive to disturbance. Although climate warming is recognized as one of the most significant disturbances to microbial communities and their functions, its impacts on soil resistomes remain poorly understood. Here we investigated the effects of decade-long experimental warming on ARGs in grassland soils using integrated experimental and computational approaches. Our results revealed that ARG abundance substantially increased (23.9%) under warming—particularly glycopeptide- and rifamycin-resistance genes. Warming specifically enriched Actinomycetota hosts, including various potential plant pathogens, and enhanced ARG mobility. Large-scale unprecedented isolates-based phenotypic analyses also validated that warming increased bacterial resistance to multiple antibiotics. Further mechanistic analyses revealed that warming increased ARG abundance primarily through co-selection of resistance genes physically linked to adaptive traits (for example, thermal tolerance and nitrogen assimilation) and positive selection for thermal tolerance genes, which could be further amplified via horizontal gene transfer. Together, these findings convincingly demonstrate that climate warming substantially accelerates soil antibiotic resistance at genomic, ecological and evolutionary levels, with broad implications for public health and environmental sustainability in a warming world.

Source: 

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10413-x

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Predicting highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5N1 #outbreak #risk using extreme #weather and bird #migration data in machine learning models

 

Abstract

Background. 

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events (EWEs) with potentially profound consequences for zoonotic disease dynamics, yet the mechanisms linking EWEs to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks remain poorly characterized. The ongoing H5N1 panzootic, responsible for infection in over 500 avian and mammalian species, as well as nearly 1000 human cases and 477 deaths worldwide, provides a critical opportunity to evaluate how climate conditions shape spillover risk at landscape scales. 

Methods. 

We compiled a county-month dataset of confirmed H5N1 detections across the contiguous United States from 2022 to 2024 and integrated it with satellite-derived climate metrics, storm event data, and wild bird activity data. We trained and validated a gradient boosting machine classifier to predict outbreak risk and characterize predictor relationships. 

Results. 

Our model achieved strong discriminative performance (AUC-ROC = 0.856; AUC-PR = 0.237, representing a 7-fold improvement over chance) and high recall (0.726), supporting its utility as an early warning tool. Human population and temperature-related variables were the most influential predictors: cold temperature shocks and prolonged low temperatures were consistently associated with elevated outbreak risk, likely through enhanced environmental viral persistence, wild bird habitat compression, and allostatic stress-driven immunosuppression in reservoir hosts. Among storm variables, high wind coverage elevated risk, potentially via aerosol dispersal of contaminated particulates, while tornado activity showed an inverse relationship, consistent with documented avoidant behavior in migratory birds. Wild bird reservoir density showed a strong positive monotonic relationship with outbreak risk. 

Conclusions. 

Our analyses demonstrate that routinely available environmental and infection data can be used to predict HPAI outbreak risk at fine spatiotemporal scales. These findings demonstrate the divergent roles of short- versus long-term environmental exposures in HPAI spillover dynamics, as well as the potential for machine learning-based surveillance tools to inform targeted biosecurity interventions and early warning systems.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This research was supported by a subaward agreement between prime award recipient Boston University (PI: Gregory Wellenius) and the subaward recipient Regents of the University of Colorado (PI: Elise Grover) under the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences of the National Institutes of Health, Award Number U24ES035309 -01. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Source: 

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.30.26349797v1

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