The role of #ducks in detecting Highly Pathogenic Avian #Influenza in small-scale #backyard poultry #farms
Abstract Previous research efforts on highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI) suggest that different avian species exhibit a varied severity of clinical signs after infection. Waterfowl, such as ducks or geese , can be asymptomatic and act as silent carriers of H5N1, making detection harder and increasing the risk of further transmission, potentially leading to significant economic losses. For backyard hobby farmers , passive reporting is a common HPAI detection strategy. We aim to quantify the effectiveness of this strategy by simulating the spread of H5N1 in a mixed-species, small-population backyard flock. Quantities such as detection time and undetected burden of infection in various scenarios are compared. Our results indicate that the presence of ducks can lead to a higher risk of an outbreak and a higher burden of infection . If most ducks within a flock are resistant to H5N1, detection can be significantly delayed. We find that within-flock infection dynamics can heavily ...