Quantifying #H5N1 #outbreak #potential and #control effectiveness in high-risk agricultural populations
Abstract Avian influenza is a global public health threat. Since 2021, the ongoing H5N1 panzootic has brought a major shift in H5Nx epidemiology , including unprecedented spread, wide host range and lack of seasonality . Infections in marine mammals, wildlife and livestock have heightened concern for human-to-human transmission and pandemic potential . Contact tracing and self-isolation are used as public health measures in the UK to manage contacts of confirmed human cases of avian influenza. In this study, we aimed to estimate potential outbreak sizes and evaluate the effectiveness of contact tracing and self-isolation in managing community outbreaks of H5N1 following spillover from birds to people . We characterised contact patterns from an underrepresented agricultural population at high risk of avian influenza exposure through contact with birds (Avian Contact Study). Informed by these realistic social contact data, we modelled outbreak sizes using a stochastic branching pro...