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Spatiotemporal #clustering of highly pathogenic avian #influenza (HPAI) #H5N1 at the wild #waterfowl - #poultry interface: Vector-specific #spillover risks in the #US, 2022–2025

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By G.M.

 


Abstract

Background: 

The emergence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in North America, beginning in February 2022, has highlighted the dynamic, unpredictable, and regionally variable risk of infections. Studies are needed to assess the spatiotemporal clustering of HPAI H5 at the interface between wild waterfowl and commercial poultry to understand and mitigate this risk. 

Methods: 

Publicly available data on HPAI H5 detections in wild birds and commercial poultry from January 2022 to January 2026 were analyzed at the county level. Retrospective space-time permutation models were used to identify and scan for clusters with higher than expected detection rates. 

Results: 

A total of 17,091 HPAI H5 detections were reported in wild birds across 1,467 county-level locations. Four species, Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) (2,848 detections, 16.66%), Canada goose (Branta canadensis) (1,496, 8.75%), Green-winged teal (Anas carolinensis) (1,364, 7.98%), and Snow goose (Anser caerulescens) (1,084, 6.34%), accounted for 39.73% of detections. In commercial poultry, 532 outbreaks in turkey operations, 148 outbreaks in table-egg layer operations, 99 outbreaks in broiler chicken operations, and 89 outbreaks in commercial duck operations were reported, respectively. Several spillover events followed an east-to-west expansion. In early 2022, mallard detections preceded outbreaks in Northeast egg-layer and duck farms, while snow goose detections in the Upper Midwest coincided with turkey farm outbreaks. In the Pacific and Mountain West during summer 2022, detections in Canada geese overlapped with turkey farm outbreaks. A resurgence occurred in the Midwest (2025), with snow and Canada goose detections overlapping severe outbreaks in turkey and layer flocks. Additionally, in the Upper Midwest, Canada goose and mallard detections overlapped with outbreaks in commercial duck farms during fall-winter 2025. 

Conclusions: 

The study findings demonstrate distinct vector-based transmission dynamics of HPAI H5 at the wild waterfowl-poultry interface. Farm biosecurity strategies must adapt to these recurrent, vector-specific risks.


Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Source: 


Link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.03.06.710020v1

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