Evaluating the broader #impact of improved #influenza #vaccines: A full value of vaccine #assessment approach

Highlights

• Global Health Impact: Improved influenza vaccines have the potential to avert between 6.6 and 18 billion additional influenza cases, prevent 2.3 to 6.2 million additional deaths, and save 21 to 57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines

• Cost-Effectiveness: Depending on the price, coverage, and vaccine characteristics, improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9 to 48 % of countries, offering substantial global economic value under most scenarios

• Financial Viability: The development and commercialization of improved influenza vaccines present a robust financial value proposition, with positive net present value (NPV) across all vaccine profiles

• Policy and Decision Making: Vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and breadth of protection are key factors influencing the adoption of improved influenza vaccines in national immunization programs

• Implementation Challenges: Addressing barriers such as vaccine hesitancy, financial constraints, and logistical difficulties is crucial for maximizing the health and economic benefits of improved influenza vaccines

Abstract

Seasonal influenza remains a significant global public health challenge, causing substantial morbidity and mortality each year and there remains a need for more effective and durable influenza vaccines. To direct and accelerate research efforts, a full value of vaccine assessment (FVVA) was initiated to quantify the value of next-generation, improved influenza vaccines and identify key challenges that may limit their uptake once available. The FVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews, and surveys, and quantitative data analysis to estimate the full value of influenza vaccines with improved characteristics. These analyses found that if improved influenza vaccines are broadly employed, depending on their characteristics, using our demand forecast they could avert 6.6–18 billion additional influenza cases, 2.3–6.2 million additional influenza deaths, and 21–57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2025 and 2050 beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines. Under this scenario, introducing improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9–48 % of countries at the lowest assumed price point. However, uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage may impact the potential cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, from the producer perspective, the FVVA highlighted the robust financial value proposition to develop and commercialize improved influenza vaccines, in both established and emerging markets. Strongly tiered prices could make these vaccines cost-effective in more countries and boost impact further. To ensure that improved influenza vaccines achieve the greatest public health benefit, effective collaboration between vaccine developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, multilateral organisations, and policy- and decision-makers will be essential.

Source:

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X25014641

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