Preplanned Studies: #Phylogenetic and #Molecular Characteristics of An #H3N8 Avian #Influenza Virus Detected in Wild #Birds — #Beijing, #China, September 2024

 

Summary

-- What is already known about this topic?

- The H3N8 avian influenza virus (AIV) demonstrates considerable capacity for interspecies transmission and has been documented in multiple mammalian hosts, including equine and canine species. During 2022–2023, three laboratory-confirmed human infections with H3N8 were reported in China, heightening public health concerns about the zoonotic spillover potential of H3 subtype AIVs.

-- What is added by this report?

- This study reports the isolation of a genetically reassorted, low-pathogenicity H3N8 avian influenza virus (AIV) from an islet in Niukouyu Wetland Park, Beijing Municipality — the first detection of this viral strain in a wild environment within the city. Throat swabs collected from park staff tested negative for influenza viruses. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the viral hemagglutinin gene originated from the Eurasian lineage, while the neuraminidase gene was derived from the North American lineage. Although no direct evidence of human infection has been documented, multiple mutations identified in the virus’s internal genes are associated with enhanced replication capacity, increased virulence, and improved adaptation to mammalian hosts. These molecular features indicate a potential risk for cross-species transmission to humans.

-- What are the implications for public health practice?

- Given the potential threat that H3N8 AIVs pose to mammalian species, including humans, this study emphasizes the critical need to strengthen influenza surveillance networks and broaden monitoring efforts specifically targeting H3 subtype AIVs.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: 

The H3N8 avian influenza virus (AIV) is recognized for its capacity for interspecies transmission and has been detected in multiple mammalian hosts. Between 2022 and 2023, three human infections with H3N8 were documented in China, raising significant concerns about its zoonotic spillover potential. In this study, we characterized an H3N8 isolate from Niukouyu Wetland Park in Beijing Municipality to elucidate the genetic variability and evolutionary dynamics of this AIV subtype.

Methods: 

The virus underwent whole-genome sequencing followed by comprehensive molecular and phylogenetic characterization.

Results: 

We identified a genetically reassorted, low-pathogenicity H3N8 AIV, marking the first detection of this subtype in a wild environment in Beijing. Throat swabs from the park staff tested negative for influenza viruses. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that the viral hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes originated from Eurasian and North American lineages, respectively. Nucleotide sequence comparisons revealed 97.57%–99.06% similarity between the eight gene segments of this virus and those of reference strains. Multiple internal gene mutations were identified, including PB2-K318R and PB1-F2-N66S, which are associated with enhanced polymerase activity, increased virulence, and improved mammalian adaptation.

Conclusions: 

The molecular characteristics of this H3N8 virus indicate a potential risk for cross-species transmission to humans, emphasizing the critical need to strengthen influenza surveillance networks and expand monitoring efforts targeting H3 subtype AIVs.

Source: China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Weekly Update, https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.233

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#Commentary: Preparing for the Next #Influenza #Pandemic: #Vaccine Progress, #Challenges, and Prospects

 

Abstract

Influenza pandemics arise when novel influenza virus subtypes emerge in populations with little or no pre-existing immunity. The recent expansion of H5N1 virus circulation in mammals — including documented spread in cattle and sporadic human infections — coupled with the emergence of mutations associated with enhanced pandemic potential, underscores the persistent threat of novel influenza strains. Pandemic preparedness critically depends on developing effective vaccines capable of providing broad protection across diverse viral strains. While vaccination remains the most effective strategy for preventing influenza and its complications, pandemic vaccine development faces substantial challenges. These include the rapid mutation rates characteristic of influenza viruses, driven by error-prone RNA replication, broad host range, environmental selection pressures, and frequent genetic recombination. Such factors complicate predictions of which strain will trigger the next pandemic and hinder efforts to create universal vaccines. Recent advances in vaccine production platforms, bioinformatics, and artificial intelligence have accelerated pandemic vaccine development capabilities. Continued research is essential to enhance vaccine technology, expedite production timelines, and broaden vaccine efficacy against the full spectrum of influenza virus strains.

Source: China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Weekly Update, https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2025.231

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Early #influenza virus characterisation and #vaccine #effectiveness in #England in autumn 2025, a period dominated by influenza #H3N2 subclade K

 

Authors: Freja CM Kirsebom{1}, Catherine Thompson{2}, Tiina Talts{2}, Beatrix Kele{2}, Heather J Whitaker{3}, Nurin Abdul Aziz{1}, Christopher Rawlinson{1}, Rebecca E Green{1}, Catherine Quinot{1}, Nicholas Gardner{1}, Elizabeth Waller{1}, Alex Allen{1}, Conall H Watson{1,4}, Suzanna LR McDonald{1}, Maria Zambon{2}, Richard Pebody{4,5}, Mary Ramsay{6,7}, Katja Hoschler{2}, Anika Singanayagam{*2,4}, Jamie Lopez Bernal{*1,4} 

{*} Joint last authors 

{1} Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London 

{2} Respiratory Virus Unit (RVU), UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London 

{3} Modelling Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London 

{4} NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Imperial College London, United Kingdom 

{5} Epidemic and Emerging Infections Directorate, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London 

{6} Public Health Programmes Directorate, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London 

{7} NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisations, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom 

Abstract  

Influenza A(H3N2) subclade K (J.2.4.1) has dominated the start of the 2025 to 2026 influenza season in England. We found reduced reactivity of subclade K with post-infection ferret antisera raised against the Northern Hemisphere 2025 to 2026 vaccine strains, aligning with World Health Organization reports. Nevertheless, vaccine effectiveness against hospital attendance and admission in the early season currently remains within a typical range at 70 to 75% in children and 30 to 40% in adults. Our data indicates that vaccination remains an effective preventative tool against circulating influenza A(H3N2). 

Source: United Kingdon Health Security Agency, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pre-print-early-influenza-virus-characterisation-and-vaccine-effectiveness-in-england-in-autumn-2025

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Overview of high pathogenicity avian #influenza #H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in #wildlife from Central and South #America, October 2022 - September 2025

 

Abstract

Between 2022 and 2025, high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b was detected in poultry and wildlife across most countries in Central and South America. The epizootic peaked in 2023, subsided in 2024, and resurged in 2025. In Central America, outbreaks in wildlife were few and small, and mostly affected pelicans. In contrast, South America experienced unprecedented mass mortality in colonial seabirds and pinnipeds, including endangered and endemic species. Notably, viral adaptation enabled mammal-to-mammal transmission in pinnipeds and rapid viral spread across multiple countries along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Subsequent introductions to subantarctic islands and Antarctica stemmed from South American viruses. In February 2025, a novel reassortant virus emerged, recombining HPAI H5N1 B3.2 genotype with South American low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses. In May 2025, HPAI H5N1 viruses re-emerged in Brazil, causing a series of outbreaks in poultry and wild birds. The ongoing circulation and evolution of HPAI H5N1 in this region underscores the need for strengthened surveillance, expanded genomic monitoring, and enhanced integration of wildlife conservation and environmental sectors in regional response frameworks.

Source: Canadian Journal of Microbiology, https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjm-2025-0189

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#UK - High pathogenicity avian #influenza #H5N1 viruses (#poultry) (Inf. with) - Immediate notification

{Northern Ireland}

56 week-old hens-table egg layers. Positive test for HPAI H5N1, clinical signs presented prior to testing.

10-week-old approx. turkey broilers. Positive test for HPAI H5N1, clinical signs presented prior to testing.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7000

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#Germany - High pathogenicity avian #influenza #H5N1 viruses (#poultry) (Inf. with) - Immediate notification

 

A poultry farm in Sachsen Region.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7002

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#Ukraine - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

Wild Mute Swans in Kiev Region.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6994

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Comparative evaluation of different #transport #media for #H5N1 highly pathogenic avian #influenza virus

 

Abstract

In developing countries particularly in field conditions unfavorable environmental conditions, lack of availability of appropriate transport media (TM) and maintenance of cold chain during transport; sample collection, storage, and transportation is more challenging. Considering these facts, five TM out of which three laboratory-based media named phosphate-buffered saline (PBS), 50% glycerol + PBS, and normal saline (NS) and two commercially available media including viral transport medium (VTM), charcoal based viral transport medium (CVTM) were compared to protect infectivity of the H5N1 influenza virus. Spiked fecal sample and allantoic fluid with and without these TM were placed in field simulatory storage and transportation conditions and in every 12 h time interval these samples were tested for virus isolation in embryonated chicken egg inoculation and identification by HA test and RT PCR upto 7 days. Survivability of the virus was detected by calculating the percent infectivity and analysed by logistic regression analysis. NS, PBS, and CVTM, were most effective media in maintaining the integrity of the test virus. These media are easily available and economical and less complex to prepare. A significant difference was found in survivability of the virus only in VTM in between allantoic fluid and fecal sample.

Source: Scientific Reports, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-15987-6

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Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of INO-4500, a synthetic #DNA-based #vaccine against #Lassa virus, in a phase 1b clinical trial in healthy Ghanaian adults

 

Abstract

Background: 

Lassa fever (LF) is an acute viral hemorrhagic illness endemic to West Africa, with no licensed vaccines or targeted treatments available, highlighting a critical gap in global health preparedness. T cell-mediated immunity plays a central role in viral control and survival. Synthetic DNA vaccines offer a promising strategy to induce both humoral and cellular immunity against LF.

Methods: 

A Phase 1b, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted to assess the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of INO-4500, a DNA vaccine encoding the Lassa virus (Josiah strain) glycoprotein precursor (GPC). A total of 220 healthy adults were randomized to receive either 1 mg or 2 mg of INO-4500 (intervention), or placebo, administered intradermally (ID) followed by electroporation (EP) at Day 0 and Week 4. Safety was evaluated through Week 48. Primary immunogenicity endpoints included humoral and cellular immune responses at multiple timepoints post-vaccination.

Results: 

INO-4500 was well tolerated, with no Grade 3 or higher treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) deemed to be related to the intervention; 88.6% of all TEAEs were Grade 1. No cases of attributable hearing loss were reported. INO-4500 groups demonstrated statistically significant increases in Lassa virus GPC-specific binding antibodies at Weeks 6 and 12 compared to placebo, with the 2 mg group eliciting the strongest responses. T cell responses remained elevated above baseline through Week 48 in both INO-4500 groups, indicating durable cellular immunity.

Conclusions: 

DNA vaccine INO-4500 was well tolerated and elicited durable humoral and cellular immune responses in healthy adults. These findings support further clinical development of INO-4500 as a potential preventive vaccine to reduce LF-associated morbidity and mortality in endemic regions.

Clinical Trial Registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT04093076

Source: Frontiers in Immunology, https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2025.1658549/full

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Clustering #Countries on #Development Indicators Reveals Structure Relevant for #H5N1 #Mortality Analysis

 

Abstract

Infectious diseases are often observed to have different epidemiology in different countries, which arises due to various factors including those that are ecological, socioeconomic, and healthcare-related. Such variability can sometimes be best captured through looking at groups of countries that are similar within-group but variable between-group. In this study we use statistical learning methods to generate data-driven disease-centric groupings of countries rather than those developed for administrative or political reasons by e.g. the WHO, World Bank, and the United Nations. In particular, we apply hierarchical clustering to group countries based on shared disease-relevant characteristics for zoonotic H5N1 influenza. Using statistical methods such as classification and regression trees (CART)-based imputation and dynamic tree cutting, the analysis accounts for missing data and identifies epidemiologically (rather than politically or economically) meaningful clusters. Applying health metric relevant indicators, we cluster the countries of the world and using a Bayesian approach compute CFRs of zoonotic H5N1 influenza before comparing across clusters. We find that countries with stronger healthcare systems and lower poverty rates tend to have lower and more stable CFRs, whereas resource-limited settings face higher fatality risks.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

MKA was supported by the Schlumberger Foundation Faculty for the Future. TH was supported by the Wellcome Trust (227438/Z/23/Z) and the Medical Research Council (UKRI483).

Source: MedRxIV, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.11.08.25339808v1

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Le Stryge, Charles Meryon (1853)

 

Public Domain.

Source: WikiArt, https://www.wikiart.org/en/charles-meryon/le-stryge

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History of Mass Transportation: The Renault Autorail Type NF des Chemins de Fer d'Intérêt Local de l'Yonne (CFY)

 

Par Auteur inconnu — Ligne de Sens à Nogent sur Seine in Les Forums de Passions Métrique et Etroite, Beitrag aus dem Jahre 2013. Siehe auch Renault Typ NF im Modellbau-Wiki., Domaine public, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70650101

Source: Wikipedia, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autorail_Renault

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Long-term consequences of #monkeypox virus #infection or modified vaccinia virus Ankara #vaccination in #Belgium ...

 

Summary

Background

Given the continued global circulation of monkeypox virus (MPXV), we aimed to assess the long-term clinical consequences of MPXV infection and the continued presence of the virus in saliva, semen, and the anorectum. We also aimed to compare long-term antibody dynamics after MPXV infection with modified vaccinia Ankara–Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccination.

Methods

In this mixed retrospective and prospective cohort study, adults with acute MPXV infection at the Institute of Tropical Medicine (Antwerp, Belgium) were enrolled in a clinical registry (MPX-COHORT) from May 13, 2022, with follow-up at 1 month after infection. On Oct 3, 2022, we initiated a long-term follow-up study (POQS-FU-PLUS) to extend follow-up of people with mpox and to establish a parallel cohort of adults who received MVA-BN vaccination between Aug 3, 2022, and Jan 4, 2023. Participants were eligible for the second cohort if they received two doses of MVA-BN, unless they had previous smallpox vaccination, in which case one dose of MVA-BN sufficed. POQS-FU-PLUS visits were prospectively scheduled 8, 16, and 24 months after infection or vaccination. During these visits, participants with mpox underwent physical and mental health assessments and provided saliva, anorectal swabs, and serum and optionally semen (at month 8 only); people vaccinated with MVA-BN provided serum only. Missing serum samples were supplemented by biobanked serum samples collected during routine clinic visits within the same timeframe, as were serum samples predating MPXV infection and MVA-BN vaccination. Saliva, anorectal swabs, and semen were tested by MPXV PCR, and serum samples were tested for vaccinia virus (VACV) lysate, MPXV-E8L binding, and MPXV neutralising antibodies. Results were compared between people with MPXV infections and MVA-BN vaccination, taking into account childhood smallpox vaccination. The main outcomes were the in-depth clinical description of people with mpox, including complications, the long-term physical and mental health consequences of mpox, and antibody concentrations 8 months after MPXV infection and MVA-BN vaccination.

Findings

Of 250 individuals with MPXV infection, 237 were enrolled (199 prospectively and 38 retrospectively). Of 1728 people with MVA-BN vaccines, 210 were enrolled (209 prospectively and one retrospectively). Of people with MPXV infection, 112 (47%) of 237 attended follow-up at 8 months, 134 (57%) at 16 months, and 63 (27%) at 24 months. For people vaccinated with MVA-BN, 205 (98%) of 210 attended follow-up at 8 months, 161 (77%) at 16 months, and 144 (69%) at 24 months. The median age of all participants was 40 years (IQR 33–48). The majority (425 [96%] of 443) identified as men. Scarring occurred in 33 (46%) of 71 patients with mpox at month 8, 17 (30%) of 57 at month 16, and 20 (32%) of 63 at month 24. Other symptoms largely resolved within a year. All saliva and anorectal MPXV PCR were negative at follow-up (69 swabs were collected at 8 months, 51 at 16 months, and 63 at 24 months; upper 95% CI 5%, 7%, and 6% respectively); semen MPXV PCR at month 8 was negative for all 23 swabs (upper 95% CI 15%). At month 8, among participants not vaccinated against smallpox during childhood, MVA-BN induced lower binding antibody concentrations than MPXV infection (0·39 fold-change, 95% CI 0·25–0·62, p<0·0001 for VACV antibodies; 0·60 fold-change, 95% CI 0·46–0·79, p=0·0017 for MPXV-E8L antibodies); MPXV neutralising antibodies were detected in only 4% (95% CI 1–17%) of people with MVA-BN vaccines; and intradermal vaccination elicited lower binding antibody concentrations than subcutaneous vaccination (0·26 fold-change, 95% CI 0·17–0·39, p<0·0001 for VACV antibodies; 0·54 fold-change, 95% CI 0·37–0·77, p=0·0009 for MPXV-E8L antibodies).

Interpretation

Individuals previously infected with MPXV show strong and durable immunological memory lasting up to 2 years after infection, in contrast to the less robust and shorter-lived response observed after MVA-BN vaccination. These findings suggest that MPXV infection confers long-term protection against reinfection, whereas vaccine-induced immunity can wane over time and requires boosting. Further studies are needed to determine whether booster doses can enhance the durability of immunological memory in previously vaccinated individuals. Should booster vaccination prove beneficial, targeted revaccination campaigns will be necessary to maintain population-level protection.

Funding

Research Foundation–Flanders; Department of Economy, Science and Innovation Flanders; and Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development.

Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00545-6/fulltext?rss=yes

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Detection and genetic characterization of #alphacoronaviruses in co-roosting #bat species, southeastern #Kenya

 

Abstract

Bats are associated with some of the most significant and virulent emerging zoonoses globally, yet research and surveillance of bat pathogens remains limited across parts of the world. We surveyed the prevalence and genetic diversity of coronaviruses from bats in Taita Hills, southeastern Kenya, as part of ongoing surveillance efforts in this remote part of eastern Africa. We collected fecal and intestinal samples in May 2018 and March 2019 from 16 bat species. We detected one genus of coronavirus (alphacoronavirus), with an overall RNA prevalence of 6.5% (30/463). The prevalence of coronavirus RNA was 3.8% (9/235) and 11.6% (21/181) for the two most captured free-tailed bat species, Mops condylurus and M. pumilus respectively, with no detections from other bat species (0/90). Phylogenetic analyses based on the partial RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and whole genome sequences revealed that the sequences clustered together and were closely related to alphacoronavirus detected in free tailed bats in Eswatini, Nigeria and Rhinolophus simulator bats in South Africa. The sequences were more distantly related to alphacoronavirus isolated from Chaerophon plicatus bat species in Yunnan province, China and Ozimops species from southwestern Australia. These findings highlight coronavirus transmission among bats that share habitats with humans and livestock, posing a potential risk of exposure. Future research should investigate whether coronaviruses detected in these bats have the potential to spillover to other hosts.

Author summary

Bats are known to carry several zoonotic pathogens with potential to cause serious illnesses and death in humans. Yet, surveillance on the pathogens they carry remains limited in much of the world. We studied the prevalence and diversity of coronaviruses from bats in Taita Hills, southeastern Kenya to better understand the circulation of these viruses and inform disease preparedness. We detected alphacoronaviruses in urban Mops condylurus and M. pumilus bat species. The bat alpha coronaviruses we detected were closely related to alphacoronaviruses that have been previously detected in bats elsewhere in Africa and distantly related to alphacoronavirus detected from Chaerophon plicatus bat species in Yunnan province, China and Ozimops species from southwestern Australia. This work demonstrates coronavirus circulation among bats that share habitats with people and livestock providing conditions that can lead to spillover. Identifying whether coronaviruses detected in these bats have the potential to infect other hosts is critical for developing countermeasures and mitigating potential outbreaks.

Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0012805

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History of Mass Transportation: The Brissonneau et Lotz 05 Diesel Locomotive at the cemetery F´derik in February 2025

 

By Matthias-Tf - Own work, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=161756539

Source: Wikipedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Brissonneau_et_Lotz_locomotives

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#Bulgaria - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

 

{By Kandukuru Nagarjun from Bangalore, India - Peacock on tree, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=119724930}

Captive Indian Peafowl birds in Haskovo Region.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6999

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Simultaneous #outbreaks of #Ebola, #cholera, #mpox, and #measles in #DRC in 2025

 

{Excerpt}

On Sept 4, 2025, the DR Congo Government and Ministry of Health announced a new Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Bulape health zone (Kasai province), marking the end of over 15 years without any reported cases of Ebola virus disease in this region. As of Sept 14, 2025, there were 35 confirmed Ebola virus disease cases and 16 deaths, representing a case fatality rate of 45·7%.1,2 This unexpected resurgence in a region with insufficient preparedness capacity raises serious concerns about potential regional spread, including towards neighbouring Angola.

At the same time, DR Congo is experiencing one of the most severe cholera outbreaks of the past decade, with a total of 48 139 cases and 1443 deaths reported between Jan 1 and Aug 24, 2025, resulting in a case fatality rate of 3%.3 By epidemiological week 33, high case fatality rates were reported in the provinces of Kwilu (76 cases, 26 deaths; 44%), Sankuru (42 cases, 6 deaths; 14%), and Equateur (224 cases, 19 deaths; 8%).3

DR Congo also continues to be the global epicentre of mpox. Between Jan 1 and Sept 14, 2025, DR Congo has reported 16 879 confirmed mpox cases and 43 deaths.4 Response efforts have been challenged by factors such as persistent endemic conditions, gaps in surveillance, and poor access to vaccines.

(...)

Source: The Lancet, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)02100-2/fulltext?rss=yes

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#Surveillance of migratory #shorebirds and #seabirds in 2024 in #Australia reveals incursions of a diversity of low pathogenicity avian #influenza viruses, but HPAI #H5N1

 

Abstract

The current panzootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has been catastrophic for wildlife, and following a significant sweep, clade 2.3.4.4b is found in every region aside from Oceania. Herein, we report the results of our third year of targeted surveillance of incoming migratory seabirds and shorebirds into Australia. We did not find evidence of HPAI H5N1 in any of the birds tested, and there were no reports of HPAI H5N1 in wildlife tested through other surveillance schemes in 2024. Unlike previous years, we detected a diversity of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in shorebirds. Through phylogenetic analysis we revealed that the H3N7 and H4N7 viruses recovered from Red-necked Stints were complex mosaic viruses, comprising segments of Eurasian, Australian shorebird, and Australian waterfowl segments. A H1N7 virus detected comprised a wholly Eurasian introduction, confirming this route for avian influenza viruses into Australian ecosystems. These results provide further evidence for the key role of long-distance migratory shorebirds in introducing novel LPAI viruses into Oceania. While our focus on northern migration routes remained appropriate for HPAI H5N1 surveillance in 2024, the continued spread of HPAI H5N1 to sub-Antarctic Islands demands consideration of a potential southern incursion route for Oceania in future.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funder Information Declared

Australian Research Council, DP190101861

Wildlife Health Australia

Australian Department of Health

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.11.06.687052v1

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