#Bundibugyo Virus Disease #Outbreak in #DRC - Weekly #Situation #Report 22, Data as of 11 October 2026 (WHO, summary): 9,066 cases and 4,381 deaths

 

{Summary}

{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

Event description

Democratic Republic of the Congo

    The BVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to evolve, expanding both geographically and in terms of the numbers of cases and deaths. 

    The Dakwa Health Zone in Bas-Uélé Province has become the latest  affected health zone, bringing the total number of impacted health zones to 65  across seven provinces since the start of the outbreak. 

    Transmission remains highly heterogeneous across these regions. Since  External Situation Report #21, a total of 463 additional confirmed cases and 233 confirmed deaths have been reported. This increases the cumulative  total to 9066 confirmed cases, including 4381 confirmed deaths [crude case fatality ratio (CFR) 48.3%] as of 11 October 2026.

    Ituri remains the principal focus of the outbreak, though its relative  contribution is declining; it is currently for 73.8% of cumulative confirmed cases. 

    Substantial transmission persist in Nord-Kivu and Haut-Uélé.

    National incidence remains high and fluctuating, with no sustained  downward trajectory evident. Following rapid expansion through July and August,  the epidemic has entered a more heterogeneous phase characterized by repeated declines and rebounds. This pattern reflects asynchronous transmission  across provinces and health zones; declining activity in established Ituri hotspots  is being offset by persistent or renewed activity elsewhere, particularly in  NordKivu, while sporadic detections continue to extend the geographic footprint. 

    The overall trend suggest a shifting and geographically fragmented  epidemic than sustained contraction.(Figure 1)

Figure 1. Daily national trend in confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease cases, with  seven-day moving average, by date of report, Democratic Republic of the Congo,  as of 11 October 2026

{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

Trend Analysis (21-day comparison): 

    During the most recent 21- days period (21 September – 11 October  2026), a total of 1333 confirmed cases were reported nationally, compared  with 1633 cases during the preceding 21 days (31 August–20 September). 

    This represents a decrease of 300 cases (−18.4%). Cases declined across  the three principal transmission provinces: Ituri: Decreased from 931 to 748  (−19.7%) accounting for 56.1% of national cases in the latest period.

        • Nord-Kivu: Decreased from 589 to 486 (−17.5%)accounting for 36.5% of  national cases

        • Haut-Uélé: Decreased from 89 to 72 (−19.1%)

    Despite the overall 21-day decline, daily incidence continues to fluctuate, with repeated rebounds, particularly in Ituri and Nord-Kivu.  

    Consequently, these reductions should be interpreted cautiously and do  not yet indicate a sustained contraction of the epidemic (Figure 2).

(...)

    During the same period, 649 confirmed deaths were reported nationally, compared with 782 deaths during the preceding 21 days, representing a decrease of 133 deaths (−17%). 

    Deaths declined from 448 to 377 (−15.8%) in Ituri and from 296 to 230  (−22.3%) in Nord-Kivu. 

    In contrast, deaths increased from 31 to 34 (+9.7%) in Haut-Uélé and  from five to eight (+60.0%) in Tshopo. 

    Consequently, Ituri accounted for 58.1% of deaths during the latest  period and Nord-Kivu for 35.4%, compared with 57.3% and 37.9%, respectively,  during the preceding period. However, as with cases, the overall 21-day decline  masks continued fluctuations in mortality and should be interpreted cautiously, as  it does not yet indicate a sustained downward trajectory (Figure 3).

(...)

    Transmission remained active in more than three-quarters of all health  zones affected since the start of the outbreak.

    Of the 65 health zones affected to date, 50 reported at least one new  confirmed case in the last 21 days. Case incidence increased in 23 health zones  (Figure 4), decreased in 26 and remained unchanged in one, highlighting  substantial heterogeneity in local transmission. The most pronounced increase  occurred in Mandima, Ituri (23 to 199 cases; +765.2%), while substantial  increases were also observed in Mambasa and several health zones in Nord-Kivu, particularly Beni, Mabalako and Oicha.

(...)

    Declines were widespread across Ituri and Nord-Kivu, including several  major transmission hotspots such as Bunia, Katwa, Mangala, Mongbwalu and  Komanda, while particularly marked reductions were observed in Tchomia  (−94.4%) and Isiro (−83.3%).

    The number of health zones with no reported confirmed cases during  the latest 21-day period decreased from 18 to 15.

    These include Ariwara, Aungba, Boga, Damas, Drodro, Kambala and Mahagi  in Ituri; Goma in Nord-Kivu; Dungu and Gombari in Haut-Uélé; Bafwasende,  Lubunga and Wanie-Rukula in Tshopo; Miti-Murhesa in Sud-Kivu; and Buta in  BasUélé.

(...)

    Weekly confirmed deaths ( Figure 5) increased for the second consecutive  week, from 192 during 21 – 27 September to 224 during 28  September – 4 October and 233 during 5 – 11 October. In the latest week, deaths  increased by 4.0%, with community deaths rising from 150 to 157  (+4.7%) and deaths in treatment facilities from 74 to 76 (+2.7%). 

    Community deaths continued to account for approximately two-thirds of all  confirmed deaths, increasing slightly from 67.0% to 67.4%. The sustained  increase in deaths over the past two weeks, particularly the persistently high  proportion occurring in the community, remains a key concern.

(...)

Kenya

    As of 12 October 2026, no new confirmed BVD cases or deaths have been  reported in Kenya since the detection of the imported case, and the  cumulative total remains one confirmed case with one death (CFR 100%).

    The imported case was a 40-year-old Kenyan male who travelled from the  Democratic Republic of the Congo through Uganda before arriving in Nairobi  on 3 October 2026. He presented for care and was isolated on the day of arrival, with laboratory testing confirming Bundibugyo virus infection. He died on 5  October and received a safe and dignified burial on 6 October 2026.

    Contact tracing and monitoring remain ongoing, with 128 contacts  currently listed, comprising 26 passengers, four flight crew, 43  Jomo Kenyatta International Airport staff, 10 relatives and 45 healthcare  workers. 

    Of these, 108 (84.4%) are in quarantine and were successfully followed up,  while 20 remain outside quarantine. The latter group includes seven passengers  who have not yet been located, seven newly identified healthcare workers and  one immigration officer who remains unreachable. 

    

    The remaining five contacts are passengers who had onward travels their  respective destination countries have been notified.

    A total of 289 alerts have so far been investigated, generating 293  laboratory tests, with all 292 results other than the index case testing negative. 

(...)

Situation interpretation

    The fluctuating national trajectory reflects uneven interruption of  transmission across a complex, geographically dispersed and increasingly cross-border outbreak. 

    Although response capacity has expanded substantially, persistent gaps  in early detection, contact follow-up, timely isolation and referral, together with  population mobility, insecurity and variable access to affected communities,  continue to allow transmission chains to persist or re-emerge. 

    The imported case detected in Kenya, following travel from the DRC  through Uganda, underscores the risk of further international spread, although no  secondary transmission has been detected in Kenya to date. 

    Bringing the outbreak under control will require rapid interruption of remaining transmission chains through earlier case detection and isolation,  ≥95% contact follow-up, investigation of community deaths, strengthened IPC  and safe burials, intensified surveillance in emerging hotspots, and rapid  management of unlinked cases, alongside strengthened cross-border surveillance,  information sharing and coordinated contact tracing. 

    Without consistent implementation of these measures across all affected  and at-risk areas, localized gains are likely to continue being offset by renewed  transmission and further geographic spread.

Source: 

Link: https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/publication/ebola-bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-weekly-external-situation-report

____