.jpg)
By Charles J. Sharp - Own work, from Sharp Photography, sharpphotography.co.uk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=66151818
Wild birds of different species in Western Cape Region.
Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6732
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Objectives
There have been few studies in pregnant women of medications that are used to reduce severe complications from COVID-19 infection. Currently, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) is recommended by the National Institutes for Health to treat non-hospitalized pregnant patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 illness. The aim of this study was to determine the transplacental passage of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and favipiravir utilizing an ex vivo placental perfusion model.
Methods
Human placental cotyledons were continuously perfused in a double open circuit. The study molecules and antipyrine, a marker of placental viability, were dissolved in the maternal solution. The experiment was conducted over 90 minutes, and every 5 minutes, samples of the maternal solution and fetal exchange solutions were collected for analysis. We calculated the concentrations of study molecules, fetal transfer ratios and the clearance indexes to determine placental transfer.
Results
Of 18 placentas analysed, 14 were validated by antipyrine transfer. Nirmatrelvir alone had low placental transfer, with a fetal transfer ratio of 0.025. Its placenta transfer increased in the presence of ritonavir, with a fetal transfer ratio of 0.06. The molnupiravir metabolite, β-D-N-4-hydroxycytidine (EIDD 1931), showed low placental transfer, with an average fetal transfer ratio of 0.04. By contrast, favipiravir crossed the placenta with an average fetal transfer ratio of 0.425.
Conclusions
Placental transfer was high for the nucleoside analogue favipiravir, while it was low for molnupiravir and low for the protease inhibitor nirmatrelvir but increased by ritonavir. Clinical data are required to confirm the placental transfer and determine the safety of COVID antivirals in pregnancy.
Source: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, https://academic.oup.com/jac/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jac/dkaf302/8245204?redirectedFrom=fulltext
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
The incursion of high pathogenicity avian influenza A virus (IAV) into US dairy cows is unprecedented in the era of molecular diagnosis and pathogen sequencing. This raises questions over the likelihood of further outbreaks and whether dairy cattle could be a mixing vessel for novel strains of IAV. Using a panel of BSL2-safe reassortant viruses representing clade 2.3.4.4b H5 epizootic lineages circulating since 2020, we found that a cow B3.13 isolate displayed enhanced replication in cow mammary gland cells, along with increased viral polymerase activity and stronger interferon antagonism in cow cells compared to an earlier EA-2020-C genotype virus. However, multiple avian and mammalian IAV strains, including other clade 2.3.4.4b high pathogenicity genotypes, were replication competent in bovine cells, particularly those of the mammary gland, suggesting that there is a diverse circulating IAV pool with the potential to infect cows. Moreover, we show that cow mammary cells co-express alpha-2,3 and alpha-2,6 - linked sialic acids, and are susceptible to co-infection with human and avian IAVs. We conclude that the US cow influenza outbreak does not simply reflect a unique adaptation of the B3.13 genotype virus; rather, the bovine udder represents a permissive niche for IAV and a plausible site for reassortment, underscoring its potential role in generating novel influenza viruses with pandemic risk.
Competing Interest Statement
PD is a member of the UK government Department for Food, Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) Science and Advisory Council subgroup on Emerging & Exotic Diseases (SAC-ED). He also holds a patent in the area of influenza vaccines. SdW is a member of the advisory committee of Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease of the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature.
Funder Information Declared
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, BB/CCG2270/1, BBS/E/RL/230002A, BBS/E/RL/230002C, BBS/E/PI/230002B, BBS/E/PI/23NB0004, BBS/E/PI/23NB0003
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, BB/V0119899/1, BB/T00875X/1
Natural Environment Research Council, NE/Y001591/1
Government of India, https://ror.org/036h6g940, BT/IN/Indo-UK/FADH/48/AM/2013
Medical Research Council, MR/Y03368X/1
Wellcome Trust, https://ror.org/029chgv08, 211222/Z/18/Z
Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.08.29.673079v1
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Public Domain.
Source: WikiArt, https://www.wikiart.org/en/camille-corot/the-augustan-bridge-at-narni-1826
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major driver of emerging infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases (VBDs), which are expanding in range and intensity worldwide. Europe, traditionally considered low-risk for many arboviral infections, is now experiencing autochthonous transmission of pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya, Zika virus, West Nile virus, malaria, and leishmaniasis. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and milder winters have facilitated the establishment and spread of competent vectors, including Aedes, Anopheles, Phlebotomus, and Culex species, in previously non-endemic areas. These climatic shifts not only impact vector survival and distribution but also influence vector competence and pathogen development, ultimately increasing transmission potential. This narrative review explores the complex relationship between climate change and VBDs, with a particular focus on pediatric populations. It highlights how children may experience distinct clinical manifestations and complications, and how current data on pediatric burden remain limited for several emerging infections. Through an analysis of existing literature and reported outbreaks in Europe, this review underscores the urgent need for enhanced surveillance, integrated vector control strategies, and climate-adapted public health policies. Finally, it outlines research priorities to better anticipate and mitigate future disease emergence in the context of global warming. Understanding and addressing this evolving risk is essential to safeguard public health and to protect vulnerable populations, particularly children, in a rapidly changing climate.
Source: Microorganisms, https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/13/9/2034
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
ABSTRACT
Influenza viruses utilize host proteases to activate the viral fusion protein, hemagglutinin (HA), into its fusion-competent form. Although proteolytic activation of HA is essential for virus replication, the cell-type dependence of HA activation within the airway epithelium and the subcellular location(s) in which it occurs are not well established. To address these questions, we investigated the proteolytic activation of HA in differentiated human airway epithelial cells using contemporary and historical H1N1 and H3N2 strains. We find that activation is efficient across viral strains and subtypes but depends on cellular tropism, with ciliated cells activating HA more effectively than non-ciliated cells. Similar to prior observations in immortalized cell lines, we find that HA activation occurs intracellularly, constraining the antiviral activity of host-directed protease inhibitors. These results establish that HA activation within the airway epithelium depends on cellular tropism and identify important considerations for the development of protease inhibitors as antivirals.
Source: Journal of Virology, https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/jvi.00685-25?af=R
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Monkeypox virus (MPXV) experienced an unprecedented global outbreak in 2022, characterized by a significant departure from historical patterns: a rapid spread of the epidemic to more than 110 non-traditional endemic countries, with more than 90,000 confirmed cases; a fundamental shift in the mode of transmission, with human-to-human transmission (especially among men who have sex with men (MSM)) becoming the dominant route (95.2%); and genetic sequencing revealing a key adaptive mutation in a novel evolutionary branch (Clade IIb) that triggered the outbreak. These features highlight the significant evolution of MPXV in terms of host adaptation, transmission efficiency, and immune escape ability. The aim of this paper is to provide insights into the viral adaptive evolutionary mechanisms driving this global outbreak, with a particular focus on the role of immune escape (e.g., novel mechanisms of M2 proteins targeting the T cell co-stimulatory pathway) in enhancing viral transmission and pathogenicity. At the same time, we systematically evaluate the cross-protective efficacy and limitations of existing vaccines (ACAM2000, JYNNEOS, and LC16), as well as recent advances in novel vaccine platforms, especially mRNA vaccines, in inducing superior immune responses. The study further reveals the constraints to outbreak control posed by grossly unequal global vaccine distribution (e.g., less than 10% coverage in high-burden regions such as Africa) and explores the urgency of optimizing stratified vaccination strategies and facilitating technology transfer to promote equitable access. The core of this paper is to elucidate the dynamic game between viral evolution and prevention and control strategies (especially vaccines). The key to addressing the long-term epidemiological challenges of MPXV in the future lies in continuously strengthening global surveillance of viral evolution (early warning of highly transmissible/pathogenic variants), accelerating the development of next-generation vaccines based on new mechanisms and platforms (e.g., multivalent mRNAs), and resolving the vaccine accessibility gap through global collaboration to build an integrated defense system of “Surveillance, Research and Development, and Equitable Vaccination,” through global collaboration to address the vaccine accessibility gap.
Source: Viruses, https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/9/1194
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Stabilizing the pre-fusion structures of antigenic proteins can enhance the effectiveness of antiviral vaccines. The pre-fusion form of hemagglutinin (HA) from the influenza virus typically adopts a stable trimeric structure. However, the recombinant ectodomain of HA from the A/California/04/2009 (H1N1) influenza virus formed a monomer in solution rather than the expected trimer. To promote trimer formation in the pre-fusion conformation, we redesigned five amino acid residues in the stem region of HA that are involved in trimerization. The engineered HA protein formed a stable trimer at both pH 8.0 and pH 5.5. Additionally, the thermal stability of the modified protein improved, as indicated by an approximately ten-degree increase in its denaturation temperature. Cryo-EM analysis at 2.2 angstrom resolution confirmed that the mutant HA protein adopted the pre-fusion structure. Furthermore, the stabilized mutant exhibited enhanced immunogenicity in mice. We applied the same optimization strategy to the HA proteins from A/Malaysia/1706215/2007 (H1N1) and A/swine/Hong Kong/2106/98 (H9N2). These engineered proteins demonstrated increased thermal stability and retained a trimeric pre-fusion structure, as confirmed by cryo-EM analysis. Extending this optimization strategy to the equivalent five residues in hemagglutinins from six additional group 1 influenza viruses successfully stabilized their trimeric structures.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funder Information Declared
National Research Foundation of Korea, https://ror.org/013aysd81, RS-2024-00344154
National Research Facilities & Equipment Center, RS-2024-00436298
Technology Innovation Program, 20019707
Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.08.27.672506v1
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
.jpg)
By Florian Pépellin - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=36916592
Source: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNCF_Class_X_4500
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Br J Anaesth
I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Arch Virol
I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
During infectious disease outbreaks, acquiring genetic data across various kingdoms offers essential information to tailor precise treatment methodologies and bolster clinical, epidemiological, and public health awareness. Metagenomics sequencing has paved the way for personalized treatment approaches and streamlined the monitoring process for both co-infections and opportunistic infections. In this study, we conducted long-read metagenomic DNA sequencing on mpox-like lesion pustules from six suspected patients who were positive and confirmed to be infected with MPXV during the MPXV subclade Ib outbreak in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The sequenced data were taxonomically classified as bacterial, fungal, and viral in composition. Our results show a wide spectrum of microorganisms present in the lesions. Bacteria such as Corynebacterium amycolatum, Gardnerella vaginalis, Enterococcus faecium, Enterobacter clocae, Staphylococcus epidermidis, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia were found in the lesions. The viral classification of the reads pointed out the absolute predominance of the monkeypox virus. Taken together, the outcomes of this investigation underscore the potential involvement of microorganisms in mpox lesions and the possible role that co-infections played in exacerbating disease severity and transmission during the MPXV subclade Ib outbreak.
Source: Microorganisms, https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/13/9/2025
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
{Summary}
Situation at a glance
The global cholera situation continues to deteriorate, driven by conflict and poverty, posing a significant public health challenge across multiple WHO regions.
Between 1 January and 17 August 2025, a total of 409 222 cholera/Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) cases and 4738 deaths were reported globally, from 31 countries, with six of the 31 countries reporting case fatality rates above 1%, indicating serious gaps in case management and delayed access to care.
Cholera is resurging in a number of countries, including some that had not reported substantial case numbers in years, like Chad and the Republic of Congo, while other countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and Sudan, are experiencing outbreaks that are continuing from 2024, with significant geographic expansion. This complicates containment efforts and strains fragile health systems.
Conflict, mass displacement, disasters from natural hazards, and climate change have intensified outbreaks, particularly in rural and flood-affected areas, where poor infrastructure and limited healthcare access delay treatment.
These cross-border factors have made cholera outbreaks increasingly complex and harder to control.
Safe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene are the only long-term and sustainable solutions to ending this cholera emergency and preventing future ones.
Given the scale, severity, and interconnected nature of these outbreaks, the risk of further spread within and between countries is considered very high.
Without urgent and coordinated public health measures, based on:
- strengthened surveillance,
- improved case management,
- WASH interventions,
- vaccination campaigns, and
- cross-border collaboration,
cholera transmission is likely to expand across countries.
WHO collaborates with the Ministries of Health, partners and stakeholders in affected countries.
WHO supports countries in all pillars of cholera control, including:
- strengthening epidemiological surveillance,
- reinforcing laboratory capacity,
- improving access to and quality of treatment,
- implementing appropriate WASH and IPC practices,
- promoting community engagement in cholera prevention and control and
- facilitating OCV access and campaign implementation.
On 26 August, the Africa CDC and WHO launched the Continental Cholera Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan for Africa 1.0, alongside a joint Incident Management Team. This initiative follows the commitment of African Heads of State and Government, who have elevated cholera to a continental priority through their recent high-level Call to Action, pledging to control and eliminate outbreaks by 2030.
(...)
Source: World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON579
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a prominent candidate for a future human pandemic arising from a zoonotic spillover event. Its best-known subtype is H5N1, with South- or South-East Asia a likely location for an initial outbreak. Such an outbreak would be initiated through a primary event of bird-to-human infection, followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Early interventions require the extraction, integration and interpretation of epidemiological information from the limited and noisy case data available at outbreak onset. We studied the implications of a potential zoonotic spillover of H5N1 influenza into humans. Our simulations used BharatSim, an agent-based model framework designed primarily for the population of India, but which can be tuned easily for others. We considered a synthetic population representing primary contacts in an outbreak site with infected birds. These primary contacts transfer infections to secondary (household) contacts, from where the infection spreads further. We simulate outbreak scenarios in farm as well as wet-market settings, accounting for the network structure of human contacts and the stochasticity of the infection process. We further simulated multiple interventions, including bird-culling, quarantines, and vaccinations. We show how limited, noisy data for primary and secondary infections can be used to estimate epidemiological transmission parameters, such as the basic reproductive ratio R_0 from other metrics like the secondary attack risk, in realistic social interaction settings. We describe the impact of early interventions (bird-culling, quarantines, and vaccination), taken together or separately, in slowing or terminating the outbreak. An individual-based model allows for the most granular description of the bird-human spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission for the case of H5N1. Such models can be contextualised to individual communities across varied geographies, given representative contact networks. We show how such models allow for the systematic real-time exploration of policy measures that could constrain disease-spread, as well as guide a better understanding of disease epidemiology for an emerging infectious disease.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
The authors are grateful for ongoing support from the Mphasis F1 Foundation. BharatSim development was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant No: R/BMG/PHY/GMN/20, as well as by the Mphasis F1 Foundation.
Source: MedRxIV, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.04.28.25326570v2
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
{Summary}
Time Period: August 17, 2025 - August 23, 2025
-- H5 Detection: 2 sites (0.5%)
-- No Detection: 429 sites (99.5%)
-- No samples in last week: 31 sites
(...)
Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/wwd-h5.html
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 lineage in late 2023 marked a major shift in viral evolution. By January 2024, it had displaced XBB variants to become the dominant strain worldwide. JN.1 and its descendants are antigenically distinct from earlier Omicron subvariants, with approximately 30 additional spike mutations compared to XBB-derived viruses. The combination of these features alongside growing evidence of considerable immune evasion prompted the FDA to recommend that vaccine formulations be updated to target JN.1 rather than XBB.1.5. The continued dominance of JN.1-derived variants necessitates the characterization of viral infection in established animal models to inform vaccine efficacy and elucidate host–pathogen interactions driving disease outcomes. In this study, transgenic mice expressing human ACE2 were infected with SARS-CoV-2 subvariants JN.1, KP.2, and EG.5.1 to compare the pathogenicity of JN.1-lineage and XBB-lineage SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Infection with JN.1 and KP.2 resulted in attenuated disease, with animals exhibiting minimal clinical symptoms and no significant weight loss. In contrast, EG.5.1-infected mice exhibited rapid progression to severe clinical disease, substantial weight loss, and 100% mortality within 7 days of infection. All variants replicated effectively within the upper and lower respiratory tracts and caused significant lung pathology. Notably, EG.5.1 resulted in neuroinvasive infection with a significantly high viral burden in the brain. Additionally, EG.5.1 infection resulted in a significant increase in CD8+ T cell and CD11b+ CD11c+ dendritic cell populations in infected lungs.
Source: Viruses, https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/9/1177
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Highlights
• All clades of monkeypox virus (MPXV) continue to circulate in several countries.
- When mpox outbreaks are not rapidly contained and human-to-human transmission is not interrupted, they continue to pose a risk of sustained community transmission.
- Since the last edition of this report, one country, Senegal, has reported mpox for the first time. Efforts to identify the clade are underway.
• Furthermore, Türkiye has reported cases of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV for the first time and the Democratic Republic of Congo has reported its first cases of mpox due to clade IIb MPXV.
• In July 2025, 47 countries in five (out of six) WHO regions reported a total of 3924 confirmed cases, including 30 deaths (case fatality ratio [CFR] 0.8%).
- The South-East Asian and Western Pacific regions reported an increase in cases in July 2025, while the African Region, European Region and the Region of the Americas reported a decrease.
- The Eastern Mediterranean Region did not report any mpox case in July 2025.
• Twenty-one countries in Africa have reported ongoing mpox transmission in the past six weeks.
- Clade IIb MPXV continues to be reported in West Africa, while Central African countries report both clade Ia and clade Ib MPXV, and East African countries report clade Ib MPXV.
• The recent overall downward trend of confirmed cases across the continent is driven by the decline in cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone and Uganda.
• Kenya continues to experience community transmission and has been observing a gradual upward trend in confirmed cases reported throughout 2025. Cases continue to be reported primarily among young adults, and all but one death have been reported among people living with HIV.
• China, Germany, Türkiye, and the United Kingdom have reported additional cases of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV since the last situation report. These cases have been linked to travel, and community transmission of clade Ib MPXV continues to be reported only in countries in central and eastern Africa.
• On 20 August 2025, the WHO Director-General extended standing recommendations for mpox issued to States Parties by 12 months, until 20 August 2026, to further prevent or reduce international spread of mpox, as well as its impact on health.
(...)
Source: World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/multi-country-outbreak-of-mpox--external-situation-report--57---28-august-2025
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
{Summary}
-- During surveillance week from 21 to 27 August, 79 new confirmed human cases of West Nile Virus infection have been reported.
-- Since the beginning of the epidemic season, the total number of confirmed cases have risen to 430 (they were 351 in the last bulletin); of these:
- 193 were West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease cases: 8 in Piedmont, 12 Lombardy, 14 Veneto, 1 Friuli-Venezia Giulia, 1 Liguria, 13 Emilia-Romagna, 62 Latium, 2 Molise, 64 Campania, 2 Basilicata, 5 Calabria, 1 Sicily, 8 Sardinia),
- 38 were asymptomatic cases among blood donors,
- 193 were West Nile Fever cases,
- 3 asymptomatic and
- 3 unspecified cases.
-- Among the confirmed cases, there were 27 fatalities: 1 Piedmont, 1 Lombardy, 1 Emilia-Romagna, 11 Latium, 11 Campania, 2 Calabria).
- The Case-Fatality Rate in WNND cases is so far at 13.9% (during 2018 it was 20%, in 2024 14%).
-- One confirmed human case of Usutu virus infection has been confirmed in Latium's province of Latina.
(...)
Source: High Institute of Health, https://www.epicentro.iss.it/westnile/bollettino/Bollettino_WND_2025_07.pdf
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Significance
Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) threatens wildlife, agriculture, and humans. Along the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, a major waterfowl migration corridor and HPAIV hot spot, landscape changes are altering migratory bird distributions and increasing opportunities for wild–poultry interactions. By integrating empirical data into an individual-based model, we show that landscape change between 2000 and 2015 reshaped waterfowl migration, substantially increased wild-poultry spillover, and avian influenza virus (AIV) reassortment in poultry, our proxy for potential AIV diversification and emergence of novel subtypes. Risk regions expanded across southeastern China, the Yellow River basin, and northeastern China. These findings highlight the importance of landscape changes in potentially elevating AIV diversification and emergence, and the landscape dynamics should be integrated into future studies.
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) persistently threaten wild waterfowl, domestic poultry, and public health. The East Asian–Australasian Flyway plays a crucial role in HPAIV dynamics due to its large populations of migratory waterfowl and poultry. Over recent decades, this flyway has undergone substantial landscape changes, including both losses and gains of waterfowl habitats. These changes can affect waterfowl distributions, increase contact with poultry, and consequently alter ecological conditions that favor avian influenza virus (AIV) evolution. However, limited research has assessed these likely impacts. Here, we integrated empirical data and an individual-based model to simulate AIV transmission in migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, including wild-to-poultry spillover and reassortment dynamics in poultry, across landscapes representing the years 2000 and 2015. We used the reassortment incidence as a proxy for ecological and transmission conditions that support viral diversification and the emergence of novel subtypes. Our simulations show that landscape change reshaped the waterfowl distribution, facilitated bird aggregation at improved habitats, increased coinfection, and raised reassortment rate by 1,593%, indicating a substantially higher potential for viral diversification and emergence. Model-generated risk maps show expanded and increased reassortment risk in southeastern China, the Yellow River Basin, and northeastern China. These findings suggest the importance of landscape change as a driver of potential AIV diversification and subtype emergence. This underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate landscape dynamics, host movement, and viral evolution to better assess and mitigate future risk.
Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2503427122?af=R
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
ABSTRACT
Amoeboflagellates of the genus Naegleria are free-living protists ubiquitously found in soil and freshwater habitats worldwide. They include the “brain-eating amoeba” Naegleria fowleri, an opportunistic pathogen that causes primary amoebic meningoencephalitis, a rare but fatal infection of humans. Beyond their direct pathogenicity, protists can also act as environmental reservoirs for intracellular bacterial pathogens, such as Legionella spp., to persist and multiply in the environment. In this study, we carried out single-cell genome sequencing of two uncultivated Naegleria species isolated from the River Leam in England. From single cells, we generated two highly complete Naegleria genomes. Phylogenetic analyses placed these species as close relatives of Naegleria fultoni and Naegleria pagei. Exploring Naegleria evolutionary genomics, we identified gene families encoding antistasin-like domains, which have been characterized as factors that inhibit coagulation in blood-feeding leeches. Antistasin-like domains were identified in all sequenced Naegleria species and their close relative Willaertia magna, yet are otherwise largely restricted to animal genomes. Significantly, we recovered highly complete bacterial genomes from each Naegleria single-cell sample. Phylogenomic analysis revealed that both bacteria belong to the Legionellaceae family. Both bacterial genomes encode comprehensive sets of secretion systems and effector arsenals. We identified putative Legionella effectors that resemble TAL (Transcription activator-like) effectors from plant pathogenic Xanthomonas spp. in terms of protein sequence and predicted structure, representing a potentially novel class of Legionella effectors. Our study highlights the advantages of single-cell environmental genomics approaches, which enable direct association of intracellular pathogens with their hosts to better understand the evolution of host-pathogen interactions.
Source: mSphere, https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/msphere.00352-25?af=R
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
