{Summary}
Overall risk statement
As of 30 July 2026, the global public health risk from COVID-19 remains moderate following an assessment of data and information reported between 1 January and 30 July 2026.
While the direct public health impact of COVID-19 has declined compared with the early phases of the pandemic (the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency of International Concern - PHEIC, was lifted on 5 May 2023), the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to circulate globally, maintaining its capacity to cause severe disease and fatalities, particularly among high-risk populations, including older and immunocompromised adults and people living with comorbidities.
As of 28 June 2026, over 779 million confirmed cases and over seven million confirmed deaths have been reported globally to WHO since the event was confirmed to WHO in 2020, while seroprevalence estimates suggest that there are orders of magnitude more infections and reinfections that remain unreported.
Uncertainties persist regarding the long-term consequences for the health of individuals suffering repeated infections and/or affected by post-COVID-19 condition (PCC).
Global estimates indicate that 6% of people with symptomatic COVID-19 infection develop PCC, with reduced risk in vaccinated individuals.
Of these, approximately 15% have persistent symptoms even at 12 months.
Continued global circulation and ongoing virus evolution and diversification, including in established animal reservoirs, warrant constant monitoring and vigilance.
While available vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death despite continued COVID-19 variants evolution, the global vaccine uptake was very low in 2025, even by those at high risk of developing severe disease.
This further enables virus circulation and genetic evolution and increases health risks for vulnerable individuals.
Decreased reporting, reduced genomic sequencing (and sharing of sequence information) have led to gaps in surveillance, especially from low- and middle-income countries, which affects the representativeness and completeness of available data.
Consequently, the ability to accurately assess the public health risk from COVID-19 remains constrained, resulting in a low level of confidence in the current assessment.
As indicated by sentinel surveillance through WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) and wastewater surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 circulation continues at a low level globally, with test positivity remaining below 5% since December 2025.
The virus is co-circulating with seasonal influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).
The previously observed decline in deaths and hospitalizations continued throughout this assessment period and can be explained by high population immunity, improved clinical management, and unchanged virulence of circulating variants.
Most currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages, which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity compared to other Omicron sublineages, reflected by the stability of severity indicators.
In December 2025, WHO published the Strategic Plan for Coronavirus Disease Threat Management (2025–2030) which recommends continued integration of COVID-19 into broader respiratory disease surveillance systems.
In March 2026, WHO provided updated recommendations for routine COVID-19 vaccination with a continued focus on targeting populations at high risk of severe disease. WHO also regularly updates recommendations for vaccine composition, with the latest published in May 2026.
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Source:
Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-global-risk-assessment--version-10
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