Skip to main content

The #epidemiology of #chikungunya virus in #Brazil and the potential #impact of #vaccines: a mathematical modelling study

Image
By G.M.

 


Summary

Background

The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) vaccine is now licensed in Brazil, the country that reports the most cases of CHIKV globally; however, the optimal use of the vaccine remains unclear owing to a poor understanding of CHIKV epidemiology and population immunity. We aimed to combine the distribution of cases and deaths reported since 2014 with seroprevalence studies to inform mathematical models that estimate the underlying rates of infection by state and year, and the underlying patterns of disease and death by age and sex.

Methods

We quantified the annual CHIKV infection and disease burden between 2014 and 2024 in each of the 27 federative units of Brazil using a mathematical model in a Bayesian framework that integrated serological surveys (n=12) and confirmed CHIKV disease cases (n=488 234) and CHIKV deaths (n=1719) reported between January, 2014, and September, 2024. Using this base, we estimated the potential impact of a vaccine over the period 2025–29 had the population been vaccinated before the 2025 season, evaluating different roll-out strategies.

Findings

We found that 18·3% (95% credible interval 16·5–20·3) of the Brazilian population has been infected since 2014, with the highest risk concentrated in the northeast and southeast. Overall, 1·13% (1·07–1·19) of infections were detected by surveillance systems, with an increasing probability of symptoms with age and greater risk of symptoms in females. Vaccinating 40% of the population older than 12 years (73 million doses), and assuming a vaccine efficacy of 70% against infection and 95% against disease, would avert up to 1·6 million (0·5–3) cases and 198 (61–359) deaths over the next 5 years.

Interpretation

Despite widespread circulation, most of Brazil remains susceptible to infection. CHIKV vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce disease burden.

Funding

CEPI.

Source: 


Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00605-X/fulltext?rss=yes

____

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

#Neuroinvasive #Oropouche virus in a patient with #HIV from extra-Amazonian #Brazil

By G.M.
{Excerpt} A novel reassortant Oropouche virus (OROV) lineage (with medium [M], large [L], and small [S] RNA segments : M1L2S2) has driven Brazil's largest and most geographically widespread OROV epidemic , expanding beyond the endemic Amazon basin to establish local transmission across multiple Brazilian states and other previously unaffected Latin American countries . The rapid spread of this lineage underscores its evolutionary potential and reinforces its significance as a public health threat .1 Similar to chikungunya and Zika viruses, expanding arboviruses can exhibit unexpected clinical and epidemiological shifts , including vertical transmissions , neuroinvasive effects, and potentially fatal outcomes.2–4 Although OROV typically causes self-limited febrile illness, accumulating clinical and experimental evidence suggests neurotropic potential .5 This Correspondence describes the first confirmed case of neuroinvasive OROV infection caused by the emergent M1L2S2 lineage in ext...
Post a Comment
Read more »

No evidence of immune #exhaustion after repeated #SARS-CoV-2 #vaccination in vulnerable and healthy populations

By G.M.
Abstract Frequent SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in vulnerable populations has raised concerns that this may contribute to T cell exhaustion , which could negatively affect the quality of immune protection. Herein, we examined the impact of repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on T cell phenotypic and functional exhaustion in frail older adults in long-term care (n = 23), individuals on immunosuppressive drugs (n = 10), and healthy adults (n = 43), in Canada . Spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell levels did not decline in any cohort following repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, nor did the expression of exhaustion markers on spike-specific or total T cells increase. T cell production of multiple cytokines (i.e. polyfunctionality) in response to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 did not decline in any cohort following repeated vaccination. None of the cohorts displayed elevated levels of terminally differentiated T cells following multiple SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations. Thus, repeated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was...
Post a Comment
Read more »

Chimeric #hemagglutinin and #M2 #mRNA #vaccine for broad #influenza subtype protection

By G.M.
Abstract Since multiple and unpredicted influenza viruses cause seasonal epidemics and even high-risk pandemics , developing a universal influenza vaccine is essential to provide broad protection against various influenza subtypes. Combined with the mRNA lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated (mRNA-LNP) vaccine platform and chimeric immunogen strategy , we developed a novel cocktail mRNA vaccine encoding chimeric HAs (cH5/1-BV, cH7/3) and intact M2 (termed Fluaxe), which confers broad protection against major circulating IAVs and IBVs , as well as highly pathogenic avian influenza . Two-dose intramuscular immunization of Fluaxe in mice elicited cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies , T cell responses, and long-lived immunity, resulting in robust protection against multiple lethal influenza virus infections and severe acute lung injuries . In particular, intramuscular administration stimulated systemic immunity together with a prominent lung tropism of memory cells . Moreover, Fluaxe immuniza...
Post a Comment
Read more »