Assessment | 15 June 2026
In this report, we present estimates of the probability of importation of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus (BDBV), into EU/EEA countries for the period 11–25 June 2026 under different assumptions of travel volumes from the areas where most cases were reported from.
In addition, we estimate the volume of air travel passengers from this region that would be expected to result in one BDBV importation.
Key findings
° The ongoing outbreak of the Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has raised some concerns about the BDBV importation risk into the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA).
° Based on mathematical modelling, we estimate approximately one importation per 23 000 travellers (90% Uncertainty Interval, UI: 13 000 – 54 000) from the main outbreak region (North Kivu and Ituri, DRC) to the EU/EEA.
° We estimate the probability of at least one BDBV importation into the EU/EEA from 11–25 June 2026 to be 0.45% (90% UI: 0.20%-0.85%), under the hypothetical assumption that 100 people travel from the outbreak region to the EU/EEA during this period.
° We consider 100 travellers to be a conservative upper estimate based on available historical flight data and the closure of multiple airports in the proximity of the outbreak region. The true probability of importation is therefore likely to be lower.
° These estimates apply to travellers from the general population in the outbreak region.
° The risk of importation associated with returning healthcare workers deployed to support the outbreak response is beyond the scope of this report.
Conclusions
° While sporadic BDBV importations into the EU/EEA cannot be ruled out, mathematical modelling suggests that the probability of importation from 11 to 25 June is very low.
° These results apply to importation of BDBV from the general population of Ituri and North Kivu.
° Humanitarian aid workers or healthcare care personnel returning from the outbreak region to the EU/EEA, who we assume would be medically evacuated from the affected areas with application of appropriate infection prevention and control measures, need to be considered separately.
° As one BDBV importation is expected per 24 000 travellers from the outbreak region, the vast majority of travellers will not be infected.
° However, since early symptoms of BDBV infections overlap with many other conditions, a potentially large number of travellers will show similar symptoms as BDBV infections without being infected with BDBV (i.e. false positives).
° Therefore, entry screening strategies based solely on symptom detection are likely to have low specificity, which will lead to unnecessary isolation, testing, and follow-up of a potentially large number of individuals per true case.
° The presented importation probabilities are model estimates, which are subject to several limitations and are based on currently observed trends of BDBV infections in DRC.
° If there are substantial changes in the epidemiological situation, such as spread to other regions, then the results of this output need to be reassessed.
(...)
Source:
____
No comments:
Post a Comment