ASSESSMENT | 17 June 2026
Key findings
• So far in the current outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, international modelling efforts have focused on estimating the outbreak size and near-term trajectories, as well as the risk of regional and international spread.
• Multiple modelling groups suggest that the true size of the outbreak is larger than reported.
- One model estimated that cumulative infections as of 13 June were between 3.0 and 10.2 times the reported number of cases (90% credible interval).
• Epistorm estimated the relative risk of importation to be highest for Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya, which together account for approximately 54% of the relative risk.
- ECDC has estimated the risk of importation into the EU/EEA to be low.
• The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published scenario modelling analysis results that estimated a 65% probability that the outbreak will exceed 20 000 cases within three months under a scenario where 20% of individuals with Bundibugyo virus infection were isolated and no other interventions were implemented.
• Current modelling estimates are highly uncertain due to data limitations.
- Multiple epidemic trajectories remain compatible with the available surveillance data, limiting confidence in estimates of outbreak size and future trends.
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Suggested citation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Overview of available modelling evidence to inform the scale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus in the current Ebola disease outbreak. ECDC: Stockholm; 2026. ISBN 978-92-9498-899-7; doi: 10.2900/3614787; Catalogue number TQ-01-26-044-EN-N
© European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, 2026
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