#Israel - #Influenza A #H5N8 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

 A wild Booted Eagle in HaZafon Region.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6408

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Integrating Behavioural Science and #Epidemiology to Improve Early #Detection of Zoonotic #Swine #Influenza in the #Netherlands

Abstract

Background and Objectives: 

The Netherlands faces zoonotic disease risks due to its dense human and livestock populations. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak highlighted the pandemic potential of influenza virus reassortment. Effective preparedness requires integrating behavioural and epidemiological models. Human behaviour, shaped by personal, social, and institutional factors, is critical in detecting, intervening, and treating diseases. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), a framework was developed integrating knowledge from the TPB to improve early detection and response, using (zoonotic) swine influenza as a case study. 

Material and Methods: 

Within the framework we defined the desired outcome: timely detection and notification of symptomatic (and hypothetical zoonotic) swine influenza to prevent its spread. Actions, such as symptom recognition and disease reporting, were linked to key drivers extracted from the TPB and disease transmission modelling. Expert elicitation estimated the likelihood of action for different farmer profiles, while disease transmission modelling assessed farm-to-farm spread probabilities. Simulations integrated these probabilities to evaluate intervention effectiveness across different scenarios. 

Results: 

The framework successfully combined behavioural science and epidemiology, offering nuanced estimates of intervention effectiveness. For early detection, 95% of farmers were estimated to notify their veterinarian within 13 days post-infection. Key factors influencing action included symptom recognition and disease spread extent. The farmer profiles influenced response likelihood, while human infections linked to outbreaks had minimal impact. Farm density and assumptions about transmission probabilities significantly affected the likelihood of spread before notification. 

Discussion and Conclusion: 

The framework provides a systematic approach for integrating social and epidemiological insights to support evidence-based policies. The work can be further enhanced by complementing expert judgement with more extensive stakeholder surveys, randomized scenario presentations, and immersive methods. This pragmatic tool aids policymakers in designing targeted interventions for zoonotic disease preparedness.

Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.04.03.646521v1?rss=1

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#Landscape of #H5 #Infections in #ASEAN Region: Past Insights, Present Realities, & Future Strategies

Abstract

The H5 Avian Influenza A virus infection has emerged as a global concern, particularly in the ASEAN region. This viral infection poses a significant threat to the poultry industry, public health, and regional economies. This region’s reliance on poultry production and the zoonotic potential of H5 subtypes, with documented transmission to various mammalian species and humans, necessitates proactive mitigation strategies. Over the years, comprehensive efforts such as surveillance, vaccination programs, biosecurity measures, and public health education have been implemented to keep outbreaks at bay. In this review, we provide a thorough overview of the H5 infections in the ASEAN region, focusing on the unique challenges and successes in this geographic area. We analyze epidemiological trends, including specific high-risk populations and transmission patterns, and assess the socioeconomic impact of H5 outbreaks on local communities. We also examine regional responses, highlighting innovative surveillance programs, vaccination strategies, and biosecurity measures implemented to control the virus. Furthermore, we explore the crucial role of the One Health approach, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration between human, animal, and environmental health sectors. Finally, we discuss future strategies for prevention and control, including the importance of regional cooperation in combating this evolving threat. Through this, we aim to provide valuable insights to the public, policymakers, and researchers involved in tackling H5 infections globally.

Source: Viruses, https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/17/4/535

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Sustained circulation of #enterovirus D68 in #Europe in 2023 and continued #evolution of #EVD68 B3-lineages associated with distinct amino acid substitutions in VP1 protein

Highlights

• Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) was circulating in Europe in 2023

• Most EV-D68 cases were captured through clinical EV surveillance

• Phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 region revealed a distinct B3-derived lineage

• The identified B3 lineage presented a previously undescribed residue change, D554E

Abstract

Background

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes respiratory disease ranging from mild to severe and in rare cases a paralytic syndrome, called acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Since the global EV-D68 outbreak in 2014, the virus has mainly circulated in biennial epidemic cycles with peaks detected during even years. However, following the COVID-19 pandemic, the seasonal pattern of EV-D68 has been characterized by large yearly upsurges. Here, we describe the circulation of EV-D68 in Europe in 2023 and track its genetic evolution.

Study design

Data was compiled from members of the European Non-Polio Network (ENPEN). This included monthly data on the total number of EV samples tested, EV positive samples, EV-D68 positive samples and cases, and other EV positive samples detected in 2023. Information on sample types and surveillance system was recorded. Sequence data from the VP1 gene was used for phylogenetic and amino acid sequence analysis.

Results

EV was detected in 13585 out of 203622 diagnostic samples tested (6.7%), of which 402 (3.0%) were determined as EV-D68, representing 386 cases. EV-D68 infections peaked in October 2023 (136/386; 35.2%). 267/386 (69.2%) of EV-D68 cases were captured through clinical EV surveillance, almost all of which (202/204 of positive samples with sample type information) were detected in respiratory specimens. Phylogenetic analysis performed on 99 VP1 sequences revealed a distinct B3-derived lineage with a previously undescribed residue change, D554E, in Europe.

Conclusions

The study documents sustained circulation of EV-D68 in Europe in 2023, the evolution of B3-derived lineages, and appearance of previously undescribed amino acid substitutions in Europe. This stresses the need for continuous EV-D68 surveillance and harmonization of EV-D68 detection practices towards better data comparability across countries.

Source: Journal of Clinical Virology, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1386653225000277?dgcid=rss_sd_all

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Judith, Giorgione (1504)

 

Public Domain.

Source: WikiArt, https://www.wikiart.org/en/giorgione/judith

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Development of an Intranasally- and Intramuscularly-Administrable #Replicon #Vaccine Efficacious Against #H5N1 #Influenza Virus

Abstract

The risk of a respiratory viral pandemic is significant, including from the now widespread panzootic H5N1 influenza virus, highlighting the need for effective, stable, and inexpensive vaccine technologies that elicit strongly protective immunity. Intranasal vaccines can stimulate local immune responses at the site of natural respiratory viral infection, a key characteristic that can not only reduce morbidity and mortality caused by respiratory viruses but also potentially reduce viral transmissibility to limit outbreaks. Nucleic acid vaccines are now a valuable tool in pandemic responses, with high potency and rapid adaptability to target circulating or emerging viral strains; however, data are limited on which vaccine attributes are needed for efficient transmucosal delivery and immune stimulation following intranasal delivery. To demonstrate proof of concept, here we have developed a replicon vaccine expressing an H5 influenza antigen that uses a nanostructured lipid carrier (NLC) delivery system. A relationship was established between the molar ratio of positive charges on the NLC to the negative charges on the nucleic acid (N:P ratio) and the immunogenicity of the vaccine formulations, with higher N:P ratios resulting in an increase in vaccine immunogenicity. We demonstrated the ability of this replicon vaccine to be administered via intramuscular and intranasal routes with a singular vaccine formulation. The vaccine induced systemic immunity when dosed intramuscularly or intranasally in an immunocompetent mouse model, whereas intranasal dosing uniquely stimulated a strong mucosal immune response. Moreover, a mixed intramuscular/intranasal dosing strategy using this unified formulation stimulated a balanced systemic and mucosal immune response. Finally, we demonstrated the protective efficacy of this intranasally and intramuscularly/intranasally delivered H5 replicon-NLC vaccine against morbidity and mortality in a lethal H5N1 influenza challenge ferret model. This work establishes the replicon-NLC vaccine platform as a potential novel intranasal technology for rapid pandemic response.

Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.31.646478v1

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Impact of inactivated #vaccine on #transmission and #evolution of #H9N2 avian #influenza virus in #chickens

Abstract

H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) is endemic in poultry worldwide and increasingly zoonotic. Despite the long-term widespread use of inactivated vaccines, H9N2 AIVs remain dominant in chicken flocks. We demonstrated that inactivated vaccines did not prevent the replication of H9N2 AIVs in the upper airway of vaccinated chickens. Viral transmission was enhanced during sequential passage in vaccinated chickens, which was attributed to the restricted production of defective interfering particles and the introduction of stable mutations (NP-N417D, M1-V219I, and NS1-R140W) which enhanced viral replication. Notably, the genetic diversity of H9N2 AIVs was greater and included more potential mammal/human-adapted mutations after passage through vaccinated chickens than through naïve chickens, which might facilitate the emergence of mammal-adapted strains. By contrast, vaccines inducing cellular/mucosal immunity in the upper respiratory tract effectively limit H9N2 AIV. These findings highlight the limitations of inactivated vaccines and the need for revised vaccination strategies to control H9N2 AIV.

Source: npj Vaccines, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-025-01115-y

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   Biochemistry

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6. JAFARI N, Akbari H, Maghsoodi A, Sarbakhsh P, et al
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#Mexico: The Ministry of #Health reports the #detection of the first #human case of avian #influenza A (#H5N1)

{Auto translated}

www.gob.mx/salud

The Ministry of Health reports the detection of the first human case of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Mexico. 

The case occurred in a three-year-old girl residing in the state of Durango. On April 1, the Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference (InDRE) confirmed the result of influenza A (H5N1). The patient initially received treatment with oseltamivir and is currently hospitalized in a tertiary care unit in the city of Torreón, where her condition is reported to be serious. 

Once the case was confirmed, the following actions were immediately implemented: 

-- Notification to the World Health Organization, in accordance with the protocol established for this purpose in the International Health Regulations. 

Health

-- Health personnel from the Durango and Coahuila Health Services were trained in relation to the National Guide for the preparation, prevention and response to a zoonotic influenza outbreak or event at the animal-human interface. 

-- Intentional search operations were initiated for cases suspected of viral respiratory illness. 

Semarnat - Conanp

-- Biological surveys and sampling of wild and synanthropic birds were carried out in the area of ​​influence surrounding the home of the positive case of avian influenza A (H5N1), and a permanent monitoring system was established for the timely detection of other similar cases in wildlife living in the area.

Agriculture - Senasica

-- The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, through the National Service of Health, Safety, and Agrifood Quality (Senasica), reported that no commercial production units have been affected by avian influenza A (H5N1) in any region of the country. However, Senasica continues its active epidemiological surveillance efforts to promptly identify any potential cases. If so, the corresponding national and international protocols will be implemented.

The Ministry of Health informs the population:

-- The WHO considers the public health risk of this virus to the general population to be low, so eating well-cooked chicken or eggs does not pose a risk to human health. Zoonotic influenza is a disease that can be transmitted from birds or other animals to humans. To date, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. 

-- The Ministry of Health has a strategic reserve of 40,000 oseltamivir treatments. 

-- The population is recommended to: 

- Wash your hands frequently with soap and water or 70 percent alcohol-based solutions. 

- Wear a face mask if you have respiratory symptoms and ventilate spaces. 

- Cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing. 

- Wash your hands before handling cooked foods and after handling raw foods. 

- Cook chicken and eggs properly (over 70°C) 

- Do not use the same utensils to handle raw and cooked foods. 

- Avoid touching or approaching wild animals. 

- Do not handle or pick up dead animals. 

- Do not touch sick or dead birds or poultry due to unknown causes. 

- Wear gloves, face masks, and protective clothing if you work on farms or slaughterhouses and have contact with birds or other animals, their products, and waste. 

-- Monitor for signs of illness or abnormal death in farm or backyard animals and report them immediately to the authorities. 

- The Ministry of Health recommends seeking medical attention if you experience fever, conjunctivitis (burning, itching, redness of the eyes), cough, sore throat, runny nose, difficulty breathing, headache, vomiting, diarrhea, bleeding, or altered consciousness after contact with sick or dead birds or other animals. 

Source: Ministry of Health, https://www.gob.mx/salud/prensa/secretaria-de-salud-informa-la-deteccion-del-primer-caso-humano-de-influenza-aviar-a-h5n1

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Synergistic effects of PA (S184N) and #PB2 (E627K) #mutations on the increased pathogenicity of #H3N2 canine #influenza virus #infections in mice and #dogs

ABSTRACT

As companion animals, dogs are susceptible to various subtypes of influenza A virus (IAV), with the H3N2 and H3N8 subtypes of canine influenza virus (CIV) stably circulating among canines. Compared to the H3N8 CIV, the H3N2 CIV is more widely prevalent in canine populations and demonstrates increased adaptability to mammals, potentially facilitating cross-species transmission. Therefore, a comprehensive elucidation of the mechanisms underlying H3N2 CIV adaptation to mammals is imperative. In this study, we serially passaged the GD14-WT strain in murine lungs, successfully establishing a lethal H3N2 CIV infection model. From this model, we isolated the lethal strain GD14-MA and identified the key lethal mutations PA(S184N) and PB2(E627K). Moreover, the GD14-ma[PA(S184N)+PB2(E627K)] strain exhibited markedly enhanced pathogenicity in dogs. Viral titers in lung tissues from infected dogs and mice showed that GD14-ma[PA(S184N)+PB2(E627K)] does not increase its pathogenicity to mice and dogs by upregulating viral titers compared to the GD14-WT strain. Notably, sequence alignments across all H3N2 IAVs showed an increasing prevalence of the PA (S184N) and PB2 (E627K) mutations from avian to human hosts. Finally, single-cell RNA sequencing of infected mouse lung tissues showed that GD14-ma[PA(S184N)+PB2(E627K)] effectively evaded host antiviral responses, inducing a robust inflammatory reaction. Considering the recognized role of the PB2 (E627K) mutation in the mammalian adaptation of IAVs, our findings underscore the importance of ongoing surveillance for the PA (S184N) mutation in H3N2 IAVs.

IMPORTANCE

Since the 21st century, zoonotic viruses have frequently crossed species barriers, posing significant global public health challenges. Dogs are susceptible to various influenza A viruses (IAVs), particularly the H3N2 canine influenza virus (CIV), which has stably circulated and evolved to enhance its adaptability to mammals, including an increased affinity for the human-like SAα2,6-Gal receptor, posing a potential public health threat. Here, we simulated H3N2 CIV adaptation in mice, revealed that the synergistic PA(S184N) and PB2(E627K) mutations augment H3N2 CIV pathogenicity in dogs and mice, and elucidated the underlying mechanisms at the single-cell level. Our study provides molecular evidence for adapting the H3N2 CIV to mammals and underscores the importance of vigilant monitoring of genetic variations in H3N2 CIV.

Source: Journal of Virology, https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/jvi.01984-24?af=R

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#USA, Monitoring for Avian #Influenza A(#H5) Virus In #Wastewater {as of April 4 '25}

 

{Excerpt}

Time Period: March 23, 2025 - March 29, 2025

-- H5 Detection: 9 sites (2.2%)

-- No Detection: 400 sites (97.8%)

-- No samples in last week: 228 sites

(...)

Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/h5-monitoring/index.html

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#UK {#England} - High pathogenicity avian #influenza #H5N1 viruses (#poultry) (Inf. with) - Immediate notification

{England} Backyard flock of 40 chickens. Increased mortality and other clinical signs were reported. Samples tested positive for HPAI H5N1.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6401

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#Nirmatrelvir–ritonavir versus placebo–ritonavir in individuals with #longCOVID in the #USA (PAX LC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2, decentralised trial

Summary

Background

The substantial burden of post-COVID-19 condition (also known as long COVID) underscores the need for effective pharmacological interventions. Given that viral persistence has been hypothesised as a potential cause of long COVID, antiviral therapy might offer a promising approach to alleviating long COVID symptoms. We therefore investigated the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir for treating long COVID.

Methods

In this phase 2, decentralised, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, adults (aged ≥18 years) from the 48 states across the contiguous USA, with previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and long COVID symptoms starting within 4 weeks of initial infection and persisting for at least 12 weeks, were eligible for inclusion. Key exclusion criteria were use of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir within the previous 2 months, CYP3A4-dependent medications, or strong CYP3A4 inducers; acute medical illness such as SARS-CoV-2 infection within the past 2 weeks; active liver disease; renal impairment; and immunocompromise. Using software for 1:1 stratified block random assignment, participants were randomly allocated to receive either two tablets of nirmatrelvir (150 mg each) and one tablet of ritonavir (100 mg), or placebo and one tablet of ritonavir (100 mg), orally administered twice daily for 15 days, stratified by age, sex at birth, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Participants, clinicians, and the study team were masked to treatment allocation. The primary efficacy endpoint was the change in the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS)-29 Physical Health Summary Score (PHSS) from baseline to day 28, analysed by intention to treat. Safety endpoints were reported from baseline to week 6 in all participants who were exposed to the study treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05668091) and is now closed to new participants.

Findings

Between April 14, 2023, and Feb 26, 2024, 119 participants were screened. 100 were enrolled (66 [66%] female participants and 34 [34%] male participants), with 49 assigned to the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and 51 to the placebo–ritonavir group (intention-to-treat population). Three participants in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and two in the placebo–ritonavir group withdrew before starting treatment and were excluded from the safety population. The mean PROMIS-29 PHSS at baseline was 39·6 (95% CI 37·4 to 41·9) in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and 36·3 (34·4 to 38·2) in the placebo–ritonavir group. The adjusted change from baseline to day 28 was 0·45 (–0·93 to 1·83) in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and 1·01 (–0·30 to 2·31) in the placebo–ritonavir group (adjusted mean difference –0·55 [95% CI –2·32 to 1·21; p=0·54]). No deaths or serious adverse events were recorded between baseline and week 6. Study drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in more participants in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group (35 [76%] of 46) compared with the placebo–ritonavir group (27 [55%] of 49), mostly driven by dysgeusia. Early treatment termination due to an adverse event occurred in two participants in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and one in the placebo–ritonavir group.

Interpretation

Nirmatrelvir–ritonavir administered for 15 days did not significantly improve health outcomes in participants with long COVID compared with placebo–ritonavir at day 28. However, the study showed the feasibility of large-scale, decentralised trials in long COVID.

Source: Lancet Infectious Diseases, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(25)00073-8/fulltext?rss=yes

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#Influenza #H1N1pdm09 Virus with Reduced Susceptibility to #Baloxavir, #Japan, 2024

Abstract

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus carrying an I38N substitution was detected in an untreated teenager in Japan. The I38N mutant virus exhibited reduced susceptibility to baloxavir but remained susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors and showed reduced growth capability. Monitoring antiviral drug susceptibility of influenza viruses is necessary to aid public health planning and clinical recommendations.

Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/5/24-1123_article

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#Outbreak of #Marburg Virus Disease, Equatorial Guinea, 2023

Abstract

In February 2023, the government of Equatorial Guinea declared an outbreak of Marburg virus disease. We describe the response structure and epidemiologic characteristics, including case-patient demographics, clinical manifestations, risk factors, and the serial interval and timing of symptom onset, treatment seeking, and recovery or death. We identified 16 laboratory-confirmed and 23 probable cases of Marburg virus disease in 5 districts and noted several unlinked chains of transmission and a case-fatality ratio of 90% (35/39 cases). Transmission was concentrated in family clusters and healthcare settings. The median serial interval was 18.5 days; most transmission occurred during late-stage disease. Rapid isolation of symptomatic case-patients is critical in preventing transmission and improving patient outcomes; community engagement and surveillance strengthening should be prioritized in emerging outbreaks. Further analysis of this outbreak and a One Health surveillance approach can help prevent and prepare for future potential spillover events.

Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/5/24-1749_article

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#Genomic #signatures and #host #adaptation of #H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b: A call for global #surveillance and multi-target antiviral strategies

Highlights

• Phylogenetic analysis of genotype B3.13 and D1.1 across the species.

• Mutations on the receptor binding sites related to receptor preferring.

• Host adaptability differences between B3.13 and D1.1.

• Antivirals resistance mutations emergence of genotype B3.13 and D1.1.

Abstract

The recent report of the first fatality associated with infection by influenza virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, identified as genotype D1.1, which is distinct from the B3.13 genotype, has sparked fears of a potential human pandemic. However, the genetic relationships between B3.13 and D1.1, as well as their origins, host adaptability, and antiviral resistance, remain poorly understood. Here we conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic and comparative analysis of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b across multiple species, in order to identify the molecular characteristics and frequency of resistance mutations in these two genotypes, elucidate their evolutionary trajectories, and assess their implications for public health. Our results demonstrate that B3.13 exhibits mammalian adaptability, while D1.1 retains avian adaptability. Importantly, both genotypes display limited occurrences of human-like signatures, which can help alleviate public anxiety. Additionally, the emergence of the resistance mutations in the clade 2.3.4.4b on the binding sites of antivirals calls for the development of multi-target antiviral strategies to mitigate the risk of resistant strain reassortment.

Source: Current Research in Microbiological Sciences, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666517425000392?via%3Dihub

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A #Wildlife #Health #Outbreak #Response Table-top Exercise for #Pandemic Preparedness #Planning

Abstract

Zoonotic diseases have received significantly more attention over the last few decades, emerging with increasing frequency and causing the majority of notable disease outbreaks in this century, including the COVID-19 pandemic. As human activities and shifting climate patterns induce changes in the environment that alter habitat and range of reservoir species, the potential for human and animal interactions will increase and enhance the opportunity for spillover. Thus, any emergency response preparedness planning must take into account the function and coordination of agencies across the sectors of human, animal and environmental health. Within the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania a table-top exercise was performed to evaluate a multi-agency response during a hypothetical zoonotic disease investigation. The exercise was evaluated by the participants to gain feedback on the overall process and lessons learned. Here, we describe the tabletop exercise scenario and the insights gained. We found that differences in operational structure create challenges for interdepartmental communication and in the ability to resource a coordinated response, highlighting opportunities to develop infrastructure that will facilitate future actions. A set of recommendations are outlined that may enhance cross-agency activities and promote more effective and efficient emergency response.

Source: BioRxIV, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.04.01.646690v1

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#Germany - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

One red fox in Sachsen and one in Nordrhein-Westfalen States.

Source: WOAH, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6398

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#NASA #Update on the #Size Estimate and #Lunar #Impact Probability of #Asteroid 2024 #YR4

Since near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, NASA and the worldwide planetary defense community have continued to observe the asteroid, which was ruled out as a significant impact risk to Earth. New infrared observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have decreased the uncertainty of the asteroid’s size and 2024 YR4 is now estimated to be 174-220 feet (53-67 meters), about the size of a 10-story building. The previous size estimate of 131-295 feet (40-90 meters) was derived from visible light measurements from ground-based telescopes.  

(...)

Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes. There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.  

After mid-April, asteroid 2024 YR4 will be too far and faint to be observed by ground-based telescopes but Webb will observe the asteroid again in May.  

Source: NASA, https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/

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