Backyard captive birds in Los Lagos Region.
Source:
Link: https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7802
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Media Monitoring for Signals about Emerging Threats
Backyard captive birds in Los Lagos Region.
Source:
Link: https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7802
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Seasonal influenza remains a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, highlighting the need for vaccination strategies that improve coverage and streamline vaccine delivery. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies, evaluating immunogenicity and safety of same-day co-administration of influenza vaccines with COVID-19 or other vaccines, compared with non-concomitant administration. Comparators included sequential administration, single vaccine administration or placebo-controlled delayed vaccination. Risk of bias was evaluated using the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool for Randomized Trials and Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions; certainty of evidence was evaluated using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation. Immunogenicity was assessed using geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) in antibody titres and seroprotection rate. Safety was assessed by adverse event (AE) incidence. 52 eligible studies were included. Influenza immunogenicity was comparable between the co-administration and non-concomitant comparator group across all strains (H1N1 GMFR ratio of means (ROM): 1.02 [95% CI: 0.95–1.10]; H3N2, 1.05 [95% CI: 0.97–1.13]; B strain, 1.01 [95% CI: 0.97–1.05]). Pooled risk ratio (RR) for seroprotection was 1.00 for all three strains with 95% CIs ranging from 0.99–1.01. GMFR for COVID-19 vaccines was modestly reduced under co-administration (ROM 0.84 [95% CI: 0.74–0.95]; p = 0.006). Serious AEs were more frequent in the co-administration group compared to the non-concomitant group (RR 1.41 [95% CI: 1.07–1.86]; p = 0.014; absolute risk difference: 1.56 percentage points). Overall, co-administration preserves influenza immunogenicity but modestly reduces COVID-19 vaccine GMFR. Although safety findings warrant cautious interpretation, the low absolute risk difference supports its feasibility as a strategy to streamline vaccination schedules and improve uptake.
Source:
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-026-01548-z
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Summary
Background
Vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV is highly effective against Ebola virus, but protection against Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) is unproven. We evaluated the relative population impact and dose efficiency of a partially cross-protective hypothetical vaccine under operationally realistic constraints during a BDBV outbreak.
Methods
We developed a stochastic transmission model on a clustered household–community contact network with empirically realistic local structure, calibrated to 2026 DR Congo BDBV outbreak data. Time-varying effective reproduction numbers were estimated using a Bayesian renewal model. We evaluated case detection, isolation, contact tracing, reactive ring vaccination (Ring 1: direct contacts of the index case; Ring 2: contacts of contacts), and community vaccination (20–80% coverage). Base-case vaccine effectiveness was 45% and included post-exposure protection against disease and mortality. Primary outcomes were mortality and incidence reductions, total doses, and dose efficiency (doses per death averted) over 90 days, evaluated in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 10 000 matched stochastic replicates per strategy.
Findings
Compared with base operations alone (30% detection, 30% tracing), enhanced operations alone (70% detection, 80% tracing) reduced expected mortality by 81·6% (95% uncertainty interval 73·1–87·7). Reactive Ring 2 vaccination under base operations reduced mortality by 24·6% (18·0–29·6), requiring 35·1 doses per death averted. Added to enhanced operations, Ring 2 vaccination reduced mortality by 83·6% overall (76·4–89·0), an incremental benefit of 10·5% (6·2–15·6) beyond enhanced operations alone. Community vaccination at 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% coverage reduced mortality by 44·7% (34·8–52·5), 67·4% (56·2–74·3), 79·8% (70·4–85·3), and 86·6% (79·2–90·4), respectively, requiring 53·8–111·4 doses per death averted.
Interpretation
Strengthened case finding, contact tracing, and isolation averted most deaths even without vaccination. Once these operations were strong, reactive ring vaccination added a modest further benefit, whereas rapid community vaccination produced the largest reductions in simulated scenarios but required substantially more doses. A partially protective BDBV vaccine's population-level value will depend principally on rapid, broad delivery.
Funding
Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
Translation
For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Source:
Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00464-0/fulltext
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Context
Ervebo® is currently the only licensed Ebola vaccine available. Ervebo® (rVSV-EBOV-GP) is a live, recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV)-based vaccine licensed that was prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019 for the prevention of Ebola virus disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV, species Orthoebolavirus zairense, previously known as Zaire ebolavirus) in individuals aged one year or older. It is not licensed for use against Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) and therefore the use of Ervebo® against BDBV constitutes off-label use{1} BDBV and EBOV cause Ebola disease that is clinically similar but are genetically and antigenically distinct virus species. Their glycoproteins share approximately only 60–65% amino acid sequence identity, a distinction that is particularly relevant for vaccination because currently available Ebola vaccines, including Ervebo®, target the viral glycoprotein.
Consequently, although Ervebo® is highly effective against EBOV, the extent to which Ervebo®-induced immunity provides clinically meaningful protection against BDBV remains unknown. (1)
On 19 August 2026 (2), the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) reviewed and deliberated on the additional evidence that had become available following the publication of the WHO emergency guidance on the use of licensed Ebola virus vaccine during Bundibugyo virus disease outbreaks, 28 May 2026. (3)
The BDBV outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has spread substantially, with continued transmission and high mortality, creating an urgent need to strengthen outbreak response and reduce preventable deaths. (4) The severity of the disease and evolving epidemiological situation increases the imperative to consider all potentially beneficial interventions, while at the same time carefully weighing the unknown efficacy of Ervebo® against BDBV, and resultant risks.
A ring vaccination randomized controlled trial (henceforth referred to as ring RCT) of Ervebo® and BDBV-specific vaccine candidates is planned to be conducted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as a matter of urgency. (5) If well designed and rigorously implemented, the trial would provide the critical evidence currently lacking on the efficacy of Ervebo® against BDBV.
Assessment of additional evidence on Ervebo® performance against BDBV since May 2026
Findings from an increased, albeit still limited, number of studies conducted to date in nonhuman primates and ferrets suggest some protection by Ervebo® against BDBV-related mortality, while showing little or no protection against viraemia and clinical disease (...).
In the absence of an established correlate or surrogate of protection against BDBV, the extent to which findings from animal challenge models (disease and laboratory-based immunological studies) can predict protection in humans remains unknown.
Available human immunogenicity data regarding potential cross-protection conferred by Ervebo® against BDBV showed that Ervebo® induces cross-reactive BDBV glycoproteinbinding antibodies which are at levels approximately 5-fold lower than against EBOV, and that cross-neutralization of BDBV pseudoviruses with neutralizing titres are approximately 3.5–4-fold lower than against EBOV (...).
No Ervebo® vaccine efficacy data against BDBV in humans have been generated yet.
There are a small number of anecdotal reports of previously vaccinated health care workers who subsequently developed BDBV disease and survived. However, no conclusions regarding vaccine efficacy or effectiveness can be drawn from these observations because of the very small sample size, the absence of an appropriate comparator group, the potential for substantial bias, non-systematic data collection, and the resulting considerable statistical uncertainty.
Overall, the limited data and anecdotal reports are suggestive of some protection against BDBV-related mortality and are consistent in trending towards some as yet unquantified benefit.
In conclusion, the available data remain insufficient to determine whether Ervebo® provides any clinically meaningful protection against BDBV in humans or to reliably estimate the magnitude of such protection, including protection against infection, disease, severe disease or death.
Benefit–risk considerations regarding off-label use of Ervebo® in the context of unknown efficacy against BDBV
There is currently clinical equipoise regarding the efficacy of Ervebo® against BDBV.
Vaccine efficacy in humans remains to be established and could range from high efficacy, with substantial clinical and public health benefit, through moderate or partial efficacy, to limited or negligible efficacy, with little or no meaningful protection. The lower limit of the range of potential effects may even include harm. The potential ratio of benefits and risks of broader use therefore differ considerably depending on where within this range the true efficacy ultimately lies.
If efficacy is high or clinically meaningful, broader use while the ring RCT is underway could potentially reduce severe disease and deaths and, if the vaccine also protects against infection and transmission, contribute to outbreak control. In a context where other medical countermeasures remain limited, earlier access could provide populations at high risk with a vaccine that has a well-characterized safety profile, while BDBV-specific vaccines remain under evaluation and are not yet available for use. Use within appropriately designed research frameworks could also generate complementary real-world effectiveness data. In addition, vaccinated individuals would be expected to benefit from protection against Ebola virus disease should they subsequently be exposed during a future EBOV outbreak.
Conversely, if efficacy is low, negligible or absent, the balance of benefits and risks would be substantially less favourable. Considerable financial, logistic and human resources would be diverted to an intervention providing little or no clinical or public health benefit. These resources could otherwise support outbreak-control measures of established effectiveness, including surveillance, contact tracing, timely testing and case detection, isolation, infection prevention and control, and safe and dignified burials. These resources could also have been better invested in the development of BDBV-specific vaccines.
A scenario in which Ervebo® provides meaningful protection against severe disease or death, but limited or no protection against infection, viraemia or onward transmission, would require careful consideration. Protection against severe disease or death would constitute an important individual and public health benefit, even in the absence of substantial effects on infection or transmission. However, vaccination could then reduce morbidity and mortality without necessarily interrupting transmission. If this efficacy profile is not clearly understood and communicated, vaccination could lead to false reassurance among vaccinated individuals, communities and responders, potentially reducing adherence to established outbreak-control measures. Such behavioural changes could offset some of the benefits of vaccination and, if infection and onward transmission are not sufficiently reduced, could contribute to continued transmission and potentially prolong or exacerbate the outbreak.
If efficacy proves limited or negligible, substantial numbers of breakthrough cases or deaths could also undermine public trust in the outbreak response and confidence in Ebola vaccines, vaccination programmes generally, and the health sector more broadly. Once broader vaccination has commenced, a subsequent decision to restrict or discontinue Ervebo® use, if the evidence shows limited efficacy, could itself create important communication and trust challenges.
There are also important evidence-generation trade-offs. The use of Ervebo® outside rigorous research protocols could interfere with the feasibility, recruitment, implementation and scientific integrity of studies, particularly the ring RCT, designed to establish vaccine efficacy for Ervebo® and BDBV-specific vaccine candidates (which are expected to have the potential for better performance against BDBV). This could delay the generation of the robust evidence needed to guide policy. Observational Ervebo® effectiveness studies could provide useful complementary information but are inherently more susceptible to bias and confounding than RCTs and may therefore be more difficult to interpret or insufficiently robust to resolve the central question of efficacy. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies of vaccines with modest efficacy are particularly prone to these limitations. Hence the value of any observational study depends partly on the extent to which its design can ensure that uptake of the intervention is as close to random as possible and that outcome data are collected systematically from all participants allowing comparable analysis, thereby reducing selection and information biases. Conversely, if the ring RCT demonstrates clinically meaningful efficacy of Ervebo® and/or BDBV-specific vaccine candidates, such a trial would provide a strong basis for rapidly updating policy and expanding vaccine(s) use to benefit the wider population.
Extensive reliance on Ervebo® could potentially affect community willingness to participate in future studies or receive BDBV-specific vaccines, which become especially important if the efficacy of Ervebo® against BDBV is insufficient.
Finally, widespread deployment would have implications for global vaccine security. Largescale use of available Ervebo® doses against BDBV could temporarily deplete the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision stockpile and potentially compromise timely access to vaccine for response to a future outbreak caused by EBOV, against which Ervebo® has demonstrated efficacy and is licensed.
Taken together, the uncertainties described above reinforce the importance of obtaining robust efficacy data as rapidly as possible while carefully weighing the potential benefit of any broader use against its potential negative consequences.
(...)
{1} Use of a vaccine for an unapproved indication (not described in the approved labelling) or in an unapproved age group, dosage, or route of administration.
(...)
© World Health Organization 2026. Some rights reserved. This work is available under the CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO licence.
Suggested citation. WHO emergency guidance on the use of licensed Ebola vaccine during Bundibugyo virus disease outbreaks, 31 August 2026. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2026. https://doi.org/10.2471/B09884
Source:
Link: https://doi.org/10.2471/B09884
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD), an Ebola virus species with no licensed vaccine or therapeutic, reemerged in May 2026 as a cross-border outbreak in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. During a 2-day workshop, July 8–9, 2026, we conducted an early action review of the outbreak response using the 7-1-7 framework (7 days to detect, 1 day to notify, 7 days to complete early response actions) to assess timeliness and identify bottlenecks and enablers across 9 response pillars. Uganda declared its outbreak on May 15, 2026; by July 8, the country had recorded 20 confirmed cases (15 imported, 5 locally transmitted) and a case-fatality rate of 15%. Uganda met all 3 targets: detection in 6 days, notification in <1 day, and response completion in 2 days. Low clinical suspicion, cross-border data-sharing gaps, fragmented digital systems, and delayed community engagement were common bottlenecks; strong leadership and coordination structures were most cited enablers.
Source:
Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/32/10/26-1411_article
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
A farm with vaccinated ducks in Maine-et-Loire Region.
Source:
Link: https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7800
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Avian influenza A viruses pose a persistent zoonotic threat to humans owing to their expanding host range and high case fatality rates. In particular, viruses from the 2.3.4.4b clade of the H5 subtype have now been detected in over 60 mammalian species, raising serious pandemic concerns. Understanding immune recognition of the H5 hemagglutinin (HA) is therefore critical for effective vaccine design and pandemic preparedness. To understand the breadth of cross-recognition induced by different H5 strains, we selected genetically diverse H5 human isolates from 2003-2023 and assessed neutralising antibody responses elicited by adjuvanted recombinant HA protein-based vaccines in C57BL/6 mice. Neutralisation activity of sera was determined against seven H5 HA variants using pseudotyped viruses and a PR8-reassortant virus in micro-neutralisation assays. Our results showed a wide variety of cross-strain neutralisation across H5 HA antigen variants. The conventional vaccine strain A/Indonesia/05/2005 displayed narrow activity against emerging clade 2.3.4.4b viruses, whereas ancestral variants exhibited cross-neutralisation profiles showing a diversity of breath but with limited potency. Polyvalent H5 HA formulations and nanoparticle-displayed H5 HA platforms substantially broadened cross-neutralisation against diverse H5 strains. To examine the impact of pre-existing immunity on H5 vaccine immunogenicity in mouse models, mice were primed with either seasonal influenza infection or quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) prior to H5 HA immunisation. QIV pre-vaccination, but not prior influenza infection, enhanced subsequent neutralizing responses towards A/Fujian-Sanyuan/21099/2017 (clade 2.3.4.4b) H5. Collectively, our results demonstrate that immunogen selection and prior immunity shape antibody breadth following immunisation with avian A(H5) hemagglutinin.
Source:
Link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.01.748495v1
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
{Excerpt, summary}
{Click on Image to Enlarge}
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Event description
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to evolve, characterized by sustained transmission, high mortality and continued geographic expansion.
The epidemiological picture is increasingly heterogeneous, with persistent transmission in established hotspots in Ituri, intensifying transmission in parts of Nord-Kivu and Haut-Uélé, and the continued emergence of cases in previously unaffected health zones.
Since External Situation Report #15, a further 516 confirmed cases and 270 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 6100 confirmed cases, including 2950 deaths (CFR 48.4%), as of 30 August 2026.
The number of affected health zones has increased from 57 to 60 across six provinces, with Biena and Manguredjipa in Nord-Kivu and Ganga in Bas-Uélé newly affected since the previous update.
Ituri remains the epicentre, accounting for 82.2% of cumulative confirmed cases, although continued expansion in Nord-Kivu and Bas-Uélé underscores the increasingly dispersed geographic pattern of the outbreak.
During the most recent 21 days (10 – 30 August 2026), 1719 confirmed cases were reported nationally. Compared with 1958 cases during the preceding 21-day period (20 July – 9 August 2026), this represents a decrease of 239 cases (−12.2%). This decline should be interpreted cautiously given potential reporting delays and retrospective data reconciliation and does not, on its own, establish that transmission is declining.
The national trend continues to mask substantial geographic heterogeneity.
Reported cases declined by 21.6% in Ituri, from 1601 to 1255, but increased by 33.2% in Nord-Kivu, from 256 to 341, and by 12.4% in Haut- UelĂ©, from 97 to 109. Consequently, Ituri’s contribution to newly reported cases fell from 81.8% to 73.0%, while Nord-Kivu’s contribution increased from 13.1% to 19.8% and HautUĂ©lĂ©’s from 5.0% to 6.3%.
A further 10 cases were reported in Tshopo and four in the newly affected Bas-Uélé during the latest period.
The latest provincial cumulative totals confirm that Ituri remains the principal focus, but transmission is becoming progressively less concentrated in the original epicentre.
During the same period, 939 confirmed deaths were reported nationally, compared with 1044 deaths during the preceding 21 days, representing a decrease of 105 deaths (−10.1%). This decline was again driven predominantly by Ituri, where reported deaths decreased from 809 to 654 (−19.2%).
In contrast, deaths increased from 197 to 228 (+15.7%) in Nord-Kivu and from 37 to 50 (+35.1%) in Haut-UĂ©lĂ©. Consequently, Ituri’s contribution to newly reported deaths declined from 77.5% to 69.6%, while Nord-Kivu’s increased from 18.9% to 24.3% and Haut-UĂ©lĂ©’s from 3.5% to 5.3%. Tshopo reported four deaths and Bas-UĂ©lĂ© three during the latest period. Taken together, the decline in both reported cases and deaths suggests a reduction in the nationally reported disease burden. However, reporting delays and retrospective data reconciliation limit interpretation, while simultaneous increases in cases and deaths in Nord-Kivu and Haut-UĂ©lĂ© demonstrate that transmission remains substantial and is continuing to redistribute geographically.
Figure 1. Daily trend in confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease cases, with seven-day moving average, by date of report, Democratic Republic of the Congo, as of 30 August 2026
I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Summary
° What is already known about this topic?
§ In May 2026, an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus was identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
° What is added by this report?
§ This ongoing outbreak is now the second largest Ebola outbreak in history. The targets for five critical public health response indicators (case detection alerts, contact tracing, laboratory testing, isolation of infected persons, and safe and dignified burials) have not yet been met, and the outbreak continues to expand rapidly.
° What are the implications for public health practice?
§ Substantial improvements in established outbreak control measures are crucial to rapidly detect and diagnose cases and isolate and provide treatment for infected persons, prevent funeral-associated transmission to prevent additional spread, and control this rapidly expanding outbreak.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Ministry of Public Health declared an Ebola outbreak on May 15, 2026. Two days later, CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center as part of the U.S. government response to this rapidly growing outbreak. This report describes the epidemiologic characteristics and monitoring of the ongoing outbreak in DRC.
Investigation and Outcomes
Background
The 2026 Ebola DRC outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus is now the second largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded. As of August 21, 2026, DRC reported 5,458 confirmed cases and 2,606 (48%) confirmed deaths.
Compared with previous Ebola outbreaks, the increase in cases in DRC is unprecedented, with approximately 5,000 cases in 100 days (Ebola Outbreak: Current Situation | CDC).
Cases have been reported from six of the 26 DRC provinces (Bas-Uélé, Haut-Uélé, Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tshop), affecting 57 of 151 health zones in the affected provinces.
Ituri province remains the outbreak epicenter, accounting for 84% of reported cases.
Strategies known to control Ebola outbreaks include community-based surveillance, case detection alert notifications,* rapid and in-depth case investigations, identification and monitoring of contacts, infection control measures (e.g., prompt isolation of persons with suspected or confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease [BVD]), rapid diagnostic testing, mortality surveillance, and safe and dignified burials (SDBs).†
Data Source
Operational indicators for five domains have been generated based on experience with previous Ebola outbreaks, including DRC’s 2018 outbreak. Targets reflect the levels necessary to end the outbreak.
The DRC Ministry of Public Health prepares publicly available daily situation reports, and CDC abstracts data from these reports to evaluate the established indicators each day. Indicator data are monitored over time to assess the outbreak trajectory. This activity was reviewed by CDC, deemed not research, and conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.§
Operational Indicator Analysis
Nearly all operational indicators remain below identified targets (...).
Operational indicator values were calculated for the 21-day period of July 31–August 21.
The average percentage of alerts investigated within 24 hours (last reported August 5, 2026) was 83% (target = >90%).
An average of 10.6 contacts were identified per confirmed case (target = ≥20), suggesting underreporting and underascertainment of case contacts.
The percentage of confirmed new cases previously identified as known contacts (last reported July 12, 2026) was 15%–20% (target = >90%); this suggests that most cases are occurring outside known transmission chains.
In addition, more than one half (59%) of confirmed Ebola deaths are occurring outside an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) (target = 0%), suggesting insufficient ETU capacity, fear of ETUs, and ongoing spread through unidentified transmission chains.
Laboratory testing was performed for 72% of validated alerts (target = >90%), indicating that a substantial number of suspected cases remain untested.
Test positivity was 24%, with a target of 0%.
Although the national ETU bed occupancy was 64%, meeting the target of <80%, occupancy varied substantially by health zone, with some facilities unable to isolate all infected persons and reporting occupancies as high as 140%.
Fewer than one half (49%) of affected health zones had at least one SDB team (target = 100%).
Current data were not available for several response indicators, such as percentage of persons with confirmed BVD receiving prompt isolation (target = >90%) and percentage of deaths with SDBs (target = 100%), underscoring ongoing data gaps in this complex public health response.
Preliminary Conclusions and Actions
As of August 21, 2026, most operational indicator measures remained below established response targets, and data for others were unavailable, indicating gaps in surveillance, contact tracing, laboratory testing, health care–seeking, isolation, and SDB capacity that limit control of the ongoing outbreak.
These missing data and operational gaps, together with continued geographic expansion of the outbreak, a high percentage of deaths occurring outside ETUs, and a low percentage of cases among persons previously identified as contacts, indicate uncontrolled expansion of the outbreak.
Public health response activities are complicated by a protracted complex humanitarian emergency in the eastern part of DRC, including armed conflict, limited health infrastructure, population displacement and mobility, and constraints on access to affected communities.
Containment and control of the 2026 Ebola disease outbreak requires integration and coordination of at least five response areas:
1) expansion of community-based surveillance systems ensuring rapid investigation of alerts;
2) improvements in contact tracing completeness and timeliness;
3) expansion of treatment and isolation capacity in affected health zones;
4) increased laboratory testing capacity, enabling prompt case identification; and
5) ensuring SDBs in affected health zones.
In addition, collecting robust, high-quality data regarding these operational actions is essential at the health zone level; CDC’s continued support to the DRC Ministry of Public Health and partners with improving data collection is critical.
Collecting data at the level of the health zone facilitates timely local outbreak response decisions.
Rapidly enhancing international humanitarian coordination and mobilizing global technical, operational, and other needed support are critical for accelerating the response and controlling the outbreak.
CDC 2026 Ebola Response International Epidemiology and Laboratory Task Force
Christine Atherstone, Amy Boore, Vance Brown, Jonathan Bryant-Genevier, Nirma Bustamante, Maestro Evans, James Fuller, Timothee Kinkela, John D. Klena, Thomas C. McHale, Elissa Meites, Emmanuel A. Mensah, Mpingulu Minlangu, Pierre Muhoza, Mike Park, Jaymin Patel, Satish K. Pillai, Anne Purfield, Logan Ray, Jessica N. Ricaldi, Katrin S. Sadigh, Dean Sayre, Trevor Shoemaker, Rachel Snyder, Christina Spiropoulou, Leisel Talley, Alison Todres, Sebastien Tshipamba, Amy Whitesell, Hailey Whitmire, Kristina Wielgosz, Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez, CDC; Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ministry of Public Health.
Corresponding author: Sascha Ellington, frk5@cdc.gov.
Source:
Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7535e1
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Importance
Understanding the molecular mechanisms driving H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b is critical for pandemic preparedness.
Objective
To characterize the molecular drivers of viral fitness and mammalian adaptability in recent H5N1 viruses by integrating evolutionary dynamics with structural simulations.
Methods
This study analyzed 2,398 H5Nx genomes (2000–2024) through phylogenetic and selective pressure analyses. HA/NA structures were predicted with AlphaFold 3 and evaluated by AutoDock4 docking, whereas polymerase–ANP32A/B complexes were modeled using template-based methods and their binding free energies were estimated using MM/GBSA. Polymerase–ANP32E complexes were predicted with AlphaFold 3 and similarly evaluated by MM/GBSA. The binding affinities (ΔG) for the sialic acid (SA) receptors and human ANP32 proteins were quantified through molecular mechanics/generalized born surface area calculations.
Results
Clade 2.3.4.4b showed significant antigenic drift in the HA receptor binding site, reducing affinity for α2,3-SA and α2,6-SA receptors. On the other hand, the emergence of a full-length stalk N1 NA with second sialic acid-binding site mutations (e.g., N366S) compensated for reduced HA affinity by enhancing the NA binding stability. In the polymerase complex, both the PB2-627E/631L variant (−144.00 kcal/mol; unadjusted p = 0.0058) and the known mammalian-adaptive 627K/631M variant (−144.67 kcal/mol; unadjusted p = 0.0165) showed more favorable predicted human ANP32B binding free energies than the ancestral 627E/631M state (−136.46 kcal/mol).
Conclusions and Relevance
The co-occurrence of HA, NA, PB1, and PB2 signatures was associated with clade expansion and produced structural predictions consistent with altered receptor or ANP32 interactions; experimental validation is required before inferring effects on fitness or zoonotic risk.
Source:
Link: https://vetsci.org/DOIx.php?id=10.4142/jvs.26088
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
{Excerpt}
(...)
Avian influenza A(H9N2):
° Anhui Province {China}:
§ A three-year-old boy with onset on August 3, 2026.
(...)
Source: Centre for Health Protection, Hong Kong PRC SAR, https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html
Link: https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/2026_avian_influenza_report_vol22_wk35.pdf
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
Two incursions of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b in vagrant birds were identified in the Hunter New England region of New South Wales, Australia on 28 June 2026 and 10 July 2026. These were the first detections of the virus in New South Wales and occurred shortly after the first Australian detection in June 2026. The Hunter New England Population Health Unit managed human contacts of the infected birds using a contact management system designed and purpose-built by the Unit. We report on the public health response and opportunities for improvement.
Source:
Link: https://ojs.cdi.cdc.gov.au/index.php/cdi/article/view/3492
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
As part of its role in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne (the Centre) received 13,817 human influenza-positive samples during 2025. Viruses were analysed for their antigenic, genetic, and antiviral susceptibility properties. Selected viruses were propagated in qualified cells or embryonated hens’ eggs for potential use in seasonal influenza virus vaccines. Of the 13,817 samples received or processed, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses predominated, accounting for 46.1% of samples, compared to 21.2% for A(H3N2) viruses and 19.5% for influenza B viruses; one influenza C virus was received. Among viruses analysed at the Centre, the majority of A(H1N1)pdm09 (> 99%) and influenza B (98%) viruses were antigenically similar to their respective WHO recommended vaccine strains for the Southern Hemisphere in 2025. In contrast, only 43% of A(H3N2) viruses were antigenically similar to their respective WHO recommended vaccine strains. Of 3,307 samples tested for susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir, 37 A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses showed highly reduced inhibition by oseltamivir and no influenza viruses tested showed highly reduced inhibition by zanamivir. Of 5,080 samples with sequencing of the polymerase acidic (PA) gene, no genetic markers associated with highly reduced susceptibility to baloxavir marboxil were identified.
Source:
Link: https://ojs.cdi.cdc.gov.au/index.php/cdi/article/view/3489
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Summary
Background
Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, more commonly known as long COVID, has emerged as a major health problem. The pathogenesis of long COVID is unknown, but among the leading hypotheses is viral persistence. We aimed to investigate whether the use of the SARS-CoV-2 antiviral nirmatrelvir–ritonavir improved long COVID symptoms.
Methods
We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial involving adults who had developed persistent symptoms (≥12 weeks) associated with three major symptom phenotypes (cognitive, autonomic, or exercise) after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection at 69 US sites. Participants were eligible if they were 18 years or older and had a previous suspected, probable, or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, as defined by the Pan American Health Organization. Eligible participants were also required to have either at least two moderate symptoms from the same phenotype or one severe phenotype-associated symptom, as identified with the Cluster Targeted COVID-19 Symptom Questions. Participants were randomly allocated in a double-blind manner in a 1:1:1 ratio using permuted blocks of size 30 to receive either 15 days of active intervention followed by 10 days of placebo (300 mg nirmatrelvir–100 mg ritonavir twice daily, then 100 mg ritonavir–placebo); 25 days of active intervention (300 mg nirmatrelvir–100 mg ritonavir twice daily); or 25 days of placebo–ritonavir (100 mg ritonavir–placebo). A clinically significant change in patient-reported outcomes at day 90 comprised the primary endpoint: Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Cognitive Function Short Form 8a, Orthostatic Hypotension Questionnaire question 1, and a modified version of the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire Post-Exertional Malaise short form. Secondary outcomes were phenotype-specific performance measures. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05595369) and is complete.
Findings
Between July 27, 2023, and Sept 6, 2024, 1207 individuals were screened. Of these, 964 were randomly allocated and 959 participants, excluding four participants who were later found ineligible and one who did not initiate treatment, were enrolled in the three phenotypes: 332 to cognitive, 334 to autonomic, and 332 to exercise. In the 959 participants in the mITT population, 643 (67%) self-reported as female, 314 (33%) were male, and two participants had a sex of unknown or undifferentiated; 750 (78%) were White; and 108 (11%) were Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish. The median age was 49 years (IQR 38–59). No statistically significant benefits were observed for any phenotype for primary endpoints. For the cognitive phenotype, adjusted differences compared to placebo were 3·2% (95% CI –10·4 to 16·8, p=0·65) for the 25-day regimen and –2·2% (–15·5 to 11·1, p=0·74) for the 15-day regimen. For the autonomic phenotype, adjusted differences were –6·4% (–18·5 to 5·7, p=0·30) for the 25-day regimen compared to placebo and –0·1% (–12·5 to 12·3, p=0·99) for the 15-day regimen compared to placebo. For exercise, adjusted differences were –7·8% (–19·5 to 3·8, p=0·19) for the 25-day regimen compared to placebo and 0·9% (–11·4 to 13·2, p=0·88) for the 15-day regimen compared to placebo. There were no differences in secondary endpoints, and no safety signals were observed; there were no deaths, and 52 serious adverse events occurred in 42 (4%) of 963 participants over the course of the study.
Interpretation
Nirmatrelvir–ritonavir for 15 days or 25 days showed no evidence of benefit in long COVID in any of the three phenotypes studied. These findings suggest additional approaches to measuring the symptom burden and treating Long COVID are needed.
Funding
National Institutes of Health.
Source:
Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00406-8/fulltext
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
Abstract
The 2026 Ebola outbreak caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda exposes a persistent structural flaw in global health security: preparedness remains overwhelmingly reactive and pathogen-specific. Despite the $518 million Africa CDC-WHO joint continental plan, no licensed BDBV vaccine or therapeutic is available; a 21-day (three-week) detection delay and cross-border transmission expose inadequate inter-epidemic investment in non-Zaire ebolavirus countermeasures. We argue for sustained, ring-fenced financing, institutionalised cross-border coordination, species-inclusive diagnostics, and real-time genomic data sharing to move African Ebola preparedness from reactive to pre-emptive.
Source:
Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893926000682?via%3Dihub
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.
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The CDC pointed out that in the 34th week (August 23-29), there were 101,628 outpatient and emergency room visits for influenza-like illnesses, an increase of 5.6% compared to the previous week, showing a recent slow upward trend.
In addition, last week (August 25-31), there were 85 new cases of severe influenza complications (80 H1N1, 3 H3N2, and 2 untyped A cases) and 14 deaths (12 H1N1, 1 H3N2, and 1 untyped A case).
Laboratory monitoring data shows that the influenza virus currently circulating in the community is mainly type A, with type A H1N1 accounting for 74.1% of the cases.
This flu season (2023-2024) has seen a cumulative total of 1,224 severe cases (620 H1N1, 494 H3N2, 20 untyped type A, and 90 type B) and 234 deaths (113 H1N1, 102 H3N2, 7 untyped type A, and 12 type B).
The majority of severe cases are among those aged 65 and above (64.6%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (82.8%). 69.4% of those affected have not received the flu vaccine this season.
According to data from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the COVID-19 epidemic in Taiwan is declining, but it remains at a plateau.
In the 34th week (August 23-29), there were 21,969 outpatient and emergency room visits related to COVID-19, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week (August 16-22).
Last week (August 25-31), there were 69 new locally transmitted severe cases and 18 local deaths.
Since October 2025, there have been a cumulative total of 549 locally transmitted cases of COVID-19 complicated by severe illness, of which 91 have died.
The majority of severe cases are among those aged 65 and above (72.5%) and those with a history of chronic diseases (83.1%). 85.1% of these cases have not received the COVID-19 vaccine this season.
In the past four weeks, the predominant variant strain in locally transmitted cases has been PQ.16.1.1.
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Source:
Link: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/GWRkQ03fZuKKWwdv191UyQ?typeid=9
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I am an Italian blogger, active since 2005 with main focus on emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza, SARS, antibiotics resistance, and many other global Health issues. Other fields of interest are: climate change, global warming, geological and biological sciences. My activity consists mainly in collection and analysis of news, public services updates, confronting sources and making decision about what are the 'signals' of an impending crisis (an outbreak, for example). When a signal is detected, I follow traces during the entire course of an event. I started in 2005 my blog ''A TIME'S MEMORY'', now with more than 40,000 posts and 3 millions of web interactions. Subsequently I added an Italian Language blog, then discontinued because of very low traffic and interest. I contributed for seven years to a public forum (FluTrackers.com) in the midst of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, I left the site to continue alone my data tracking job.