Post-pandemic #immunity #debt and environmental decoupling reshape #urban #influenza transmission

 

Abstract

Relaxation of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions was followed by a global resurgence of respiratory infections, yet how accumulated population susceptibility interacts with environmental forcing and human mobility remains unclear. Here we analyse ~1.88 million clinical influenza tests from Macau (2010-2025) alongside meteorology, air quality, digital information-seeking, and independent surveillance and time-resolved viral genomes from Hong Kong, benchmarked against global surveillance data. Counterfactual inference indicates a post-pandemic excess in influenza activity consistent with immunity debt, mirroring global resurgence patterns, and an independently parameterised susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered–susceptible model reproduces this excess (best-fit debt fraction 42%; approximate Bayesian computation posterior 58%, 95% uncertainty interval 32-77%). Susceptibility rises disproportionately in adults rather than children, whereas vaccination coverage in high-risk groups does not decline, arguing against reduced uptake as the driver. Time-varying models and convergent cross mapping reveal environmental decoupling, whereby high susceptibility weakens meteorological constraints and sustains influenza A transmission, and asymmetric suppression of influenza B. Spatiotemporal and phylogenetic evidence supports travel-linked reintroduction from ports of entry into dense neighbourhoods, and digital information-seeking shifts from lagging to leading clinical burden. These findings indicate a post-pandemic regime shift in influenza dynamics rather than a return to historical baselines, motivating adaptive, multi-source surveillance in high-density cities.

Source: Nature Communications,  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-79600-8

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Long-term local #circulation of an #Andes virus lineage in northern #Patagonia is linked to the M/V #Hondius #outbreak

 

Abstract

In 2026, a hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) outbreak caused by Andes virus (ANDV) occurred on a cruise ship. Analyses revealed an unexpected relationship to an outbreak in Argentina in 2018. Retrospective investigation clarified the 2018 outbreak could involve person-to-person transmission and a common ANDV lineage spanned HPS cases from 2018 to 2025 in a geographically defined area in northern Patagonia, without widespread community transmission of ANDV. Route reconstruction for the index cases in the cruise ship outbreak identified geographically plausible exposures to viruses of this lineage in Argentina, but their timing was inconsistent with the expected ANDV incubation period. The infection source for the cruise ship outbreak cannot be resolved with current information, highlighting the need to expand viral surveillance in the ANDV endemic region.

Source: Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aej1679

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#Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome #outbreak linked to cruise #ship #travel in April–May 2026

 

Abstract

In April 2026, a hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) outbreak caused by Andes virus (ANDV) occurred on a cruise ship. ANDV genome sequences were obtained for 10 of the 13 identified cases during a cross-country investigation established to share initial raw data for joint analysis with reciprocal quality control. The genomic data, symptom onsets, and plausible contact patterns strongly support a tightly linked outbreak cluster compatible with a single or very few zoonotic spillover events prior to embarkment followed by human-to-human transmission onboard. The outbreak represents the international displacement of a virus already known to be capable, under specific conditions, to transmit among humans, and does not suggest emergence of a unusual viral strain.

Source: Science Journal, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aej1376

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#Australia, #H5 avian #influenza events in #wildlife (Dept. of Agriculture, Nov. 13 '26)

 

{Extract}

(...)

Event data

    As of 4pm AEST, 12 November 2026, Australia has 741 confirmed events of H5 bird flu in wildlife.

        § 10 in Western Australia (WA)

        § 342 in South Australia (SA)

        § 84 in New South Wales (NSW)

        § 2 in Queensland (QLD)

        § 249 in Victoria (VIC)

        § 53 in Tasmania (TAS)^

        § 1 in Other Territories#

    {^} Includes events on Macquarie Island

    {#} Jervis Bay Territory (Commonwealth jurisdiction)

(...)

Source: Australian Department of Agriculture, https://www.agriculture.gov.au/campaigns/birdflu/latest-data#h1_bird_flu

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{European Region} #Surveillance in #humans and #animals in 2026 for #WNV (ECDC, summary): #Italy was the most affected country in 2026

{Summary}

November 2026 | Published on 12 November 2026 based on data submitted up until and including 4 November 2026

    As part of their One Health activities, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) jointly collate and analyse data from national surveillance systems on West Nile virus (WNV) infections in humans and outbreaks in equids and birds to monitor the epidemiological situation in Europe. 

    

    This surveillance informs public health and veterinary authorities and supports timely prevention and control measures, including the deferral or testing of blood donors who have potentially been exposed to the virus, in accordance with Commission Directives 2004/33/EC and 2014/110/EU.

    Through this joint surveillance, ECDC and EFSA continue to monitor the WNV epidemiological situation in Europe.

Key findings

    Following the seasonal peak from August to early September, WNV activity declined across Europe.

    

    In 2026, Europe experienced the most widespread geographical distribution of WNV to date, with numbers of human cases and animal outbreaks exceeding levels reported in previous years.

    Overall, there is no indication of increased disease severity in humans in Europe compared with previous years.

    Italy remained the most affected country, reporting the highest numbers of human cases and avian outbreaks.

    Greece and France reported their highest numbers of human WNV cases ever, with France also reporting a record number of equid outbreaks.

    WNV activity expanded in northern Europe, with human cases and animal outbreaks detected across multiple regions in Belgium and the Netherlands, with Belgium reporting its first-ever human WNV infections.

(...)

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/infectious-disease-topics/west-nile-virus-infection/surveillance-and-disease-data/monthly-updates

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#Iceland - #Influenza A #H5 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

 

{Extract}

(...)

    Pursuant to Article 10.4.1.4 of the WOAH Terrestrial Animal Health Code, the notification reported herein relates to infection in wild birds, which are not considered poultry under the WOAH definition, and therefore does not affect the HPAI-free status of Iceland.

    A Wild Common Raven in the Suðurland Region.

(...)

Source: World Animal Health Organization, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7973

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#Measles resurgence in #Italy: analysis of temporal patterns of viral transmission, #surveillance #performance, and #vaccination coverage at national and regional levels, October 2023 to March 2025

 

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Following substantial progress towards measles elimination after the COVID-19 pandemic, Italy experienced a marked increase in measles cases in 2024.

AIM

Our aim was to describe measles epidemiology in Italy, October 2023–March 2025, and assess vaccination coverage, surveillance performance at national and regional levels, and temporal patterns of transmission.

METHODS

Numbers of measles cases and outbreaks were reviewed. Vaccination coverage and surveillance indicators were described at national and regional levels. Measles variants were classified by genotype and Distinct Sequence Identifier (DSId). Temporal transmission patterns of measles variants were assessed nationally and regionally to identify sustained transmission chains (≥ 12 consecutive months).

RESULTS

In total, 1,311 measles cases were reported, with 178 outbreaks. Cases’ median age was 30.9 years (IQR: 15.6–39.8); 601 were female (45.8%) and 710 male (54.2%). Only 3.1% (38/1,230) were fully vaccinated. In 2024, the first-dose vaccination coverage increased to 94.77% (95% CI: 94.70–94.84%) nationally, while second-dose coverage declined to 84.45% (95% CI: 84.35–84.55%). Among all cases, 12.1% (n = 158) were imported/importation-related, 64.1% (n = 841) were of unknown origin and 52.8% had DSId data available (n = 692), with high regional heterogeneity. Twenty-five measles variants were identified. One variant (D8–5963) showed sustained national transmission for over 12 months, meeting criteria for re-established endemic transmission, although no single region showed uninterrupted ≥ 12-month circulation.

CONCLUSION

Measles resurgence in Italy was marked by persistent immunity gaps, heterogeneous surveillance performance, and sustained national circulation of a D8 variant, indicating loss of near-elimination status. Strengthening vaccination strategies and enhancing molecular surveillance is urgently needed to restore progress towards measles elimination.

Source: Eurosurveillance Journal, https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.45.2600090

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Detection of #Shamonda virus in field-collected #Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), #Switzerland, August to September 2026

 

Abstract

In August–September 2026, we detected Shamonda virus (SHAV) (genus Orthobunyavirus) RNA in 15 of 34 pools of 610 field-collected Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) of C. obsoletus group, C. circumscriptus and C. festivipennis on cattle farms in Switzerland. The overall minimum infection rate was 24.59 per 1,000 females tested. Further investigations of the role of local biting midge species in virus transmission and the potential implications for animal and human health are needed, considering possible zoonotic concerns.

Source: Eurosurveillance Journal, https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2026.31.45.2600927

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#Australia, #H5 avian #influenza events in #wildlife (Dept. Agriculture, Nov. 12 '26)

 

{Extract}

(...)

Event data

    As of 4pm AEST, 11 November 2026, Australia has 738 confirmed events of H5 bird flu in wildlife.

        § 10 in Western Australia (WA)

        § 342 in South Australia (SA)

        § 81 in New South Wales (NSW)

        § 2 in Queensland (QLD)

        § 249 in Victoria (VIC)

        § 53 in Tasmania (TAS)^

        § 1 in Other Territories#

    {^} Includes events on Macquarie Island

    {#} Jervis Bay Territory (Commonwealth jurisdiction)

(...)

Source: Australian Department of Agriculture, https://www.agriculture.gov.au/campaigns/birdflu/latest-data#h1_bird_flu

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#Colombia - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

 

{Extract}

(...)

    As part of the epidemiological surveillance activities carried out by the Colombian Agricultural Institute (ICA), aimed at the early detection of clinical signs compatible with avian influenza, an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI-H5N1) was confirmed in the village of Corral Viejo, in the municipality of Remolino, department of Magdalena. 

    The outbreak affects non-poultry on a backyard farm, where respiratory, digestive and neurological signs were observed. 

    The National Veterinary Authority activated epidemiological tracing and follow-up activities in the area of origin of the affected birds. 

    As a control measure, the birds in the epidemiological unit were culled. 

    In addition, epidemiological surveillance was strengthened in the surrounding area to identify any further potential cases and prevent the spread of the outbreak.

{Magdalena Region}

    The affected population consists of backyard poultry (chickens, ducks and turkeys), rather than commercial poultry, which tested positive for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). 

    The clinical signs observed include respiratory distress, digestive signs and neurological manifestations. 

    The epidemiological unit is located near wetlands and has interactions with wild birds, which represents a risk factor for the introduction and spread of the virus.

(...)

Source: World Animal Health Organization, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7977

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#Baloxavir and #molnupiravir protect against severe #influenza #H5N1 #infection in immunosuppressed hamsters

 

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses continue to expand their geographic and host range, raising concerns about zoonotic transmission and pandemic preparedness. Immunocompromised individuals often develop severe and prolonged disease, yet evidence guiding antiviral therapy remains limited. Here, we characterized the pathogenesis and assessed direct-contact transmission of an influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b genotype D1.1 virus recently isolated from a human case in British Columbia, Canada, in cyclophosphamide-immunosuppressed hamsters, with normal hamsters included for comparison of infection outcomes and viral shedding kinetics. We also evaluated the antiviral efficacy of oseltamivir (20 mg/kg twice daily for 5 days), baloxavir (50 mg/kg, 2 doses), and molnupiravir (50 or 200 mg/kg twice daily) as monotherapies or in combination (oseltamivir with low-dose molnupiravir) in immunosuppressed hamsters. While normal hamsters showed no mortality and achieved viral clearance, infection in immunosuppressed hamsters caused severe disease characterized by prolonged viral replication, neuroinvasion, and 75% mortality, with no direct-contact transmission detected. In the antiviral efficacy experiment, placebo-treated hamsters exhibited 50% mortality. Baloxavir resulted in 100% survival, shortened viral shedding, reduced viral replication and pulmonary inflammatory responses, and prevented neuroinvasion. High-dose molnupiravir also prevented mortality and achieved viral clearance in lung and brain tissues. Combination therapy resulted in 75% survival and similarly achieved viral clearance in both tissues, with reduced morbidity compared with oseltamivir and low-dose molnupiravir monotherapies. Oseltamivir resulted in 75% survival but failed to prevent severe clinical signs or reduce tissue viral titers, whereas low-dose molnupiravir showed outcomes comparable to placebo. These findings demonstrate the high pathogenicity of a human A(H5N1) isolate in immunosuppressed hamsters, support baloxavir as an effective therapeutic option, and identify molnupiravir-based regimens as promising strategies for severe influenza A(H5N1) infection.

Source: PLoS Pathogens, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1014796

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#Netherlands, Avian #influenza confirmed in One Additional #Poultry #Farm in Hierden (Min. Agriculture, Nov. 11 '26)

 

{Extract}

    Bird flu has been detected again in Hierden (municipality of Harderwijk, province of Gelderland). 

    This time, the infection occurs at a duck breeding farm. 

    To prevent the spread of the virus, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature (LVVN) has decided to have the approximately 9,500 animals at the location culled by the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA). 

    This farm in Hierden has been culled three times previously due to a bird flu infection: twice in 2022 and once in 2025. 

    On November 9, another bird flu infection was also detected at a poultry farm with ducks in Hierden; this farm has since been culled.

(...)

Source: Netherlands' Ministry of Agriculture, https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2026/11/11/vogelgriep-vastgesteld-in-hierden

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#Maternal and perinatal #outcomes in pregnant women with #Lassa fever: analysis from the LASCOPE prospective cohort study

 

Summary

Background

Lassa fever, a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in west Africa, is usually described as associated with severe maternal and perinatal outcomes. Previous studies reported maternal mortality of 33% (whereas overall mortality is about 14% in Nigeria for patients admitted to hospital) and fetal mortality is up to 60%. However, most evidence derives from small case series with substantial limitations. We aimed to assess maternal death and perinatal outcomes in a prospective cohort study with standardised medical care protocols.

Methods

We analysed data from the LASCOPE cohort from the Federal Medical Centre Owo, Nigeria, which included all patients with PCR-confirmed Lassa fever. In this analysis, non-pregnant women of childbearing age (15–45 years) were compared with pregnant women, defined as having an ongoing pregnancy during Lassa fever. The primary maternal outcome was all-cause mortality 28 days after admission and the primary pregnancy outcome was fetal death. Mortality at 28 days was compared using Kaplan–Meier estimates and a Cox proportional-hazards model, the cumulative incidence of fetal death was estimated with livebirth as a competing event, and the association between gestational age at symptom onset and fetal death was assessed by logistic regression.

Findings

Between April 4, 2018, and Feb 18, 2023, of 1006 patients in the LASCOPE cohort admitted with PCR-confirmed Lassa fever, 703 were excluded for not being of childbearing age, and 303 were women of childbearing age, of whom 45 were pregnant. The median age of pregnant women was 28 years (IQR 24–32). The 28-day mortality was comparable between pregnant and non-pregnant women (four [9%; 95% CI 2–21] of 45 vs 19 [7%; 95% CI 4–11] of 258; hazard ratio 1·19 [95% CI 0·41–3·50]; log-rank p=0·75). Fetal case-fatality rate was 60% (27 of 45), with higher risk of fetal death if infection occurred early in the pregnancy (100% for the first trimester, 82% for the second trimester, and 25% for the third trimester). Each additional week of gestation at symptom onset was associated with a reduction in the odds of fetal death (odds ratio 0·77 [95% CI 0·61–0·90]). Among 15 liveborn infants, three (20%) died within 30 days.

Interpretation

Although the fetal prognosis was poor, as previously reported, maternal fatality was lower than previously indicated, potentially reflecting improved supportive care and patient monitoring. These findings suggest that maternal mortality might be lower than historically reported, while confirming the urgent need for specific therapeutic interventions to improve fetal outcomes.

Funding

INSERM/REACTing; the African Coalition for Epidemic Research, Response and Training consortium; the University of Oxford; the UK Department for International Development; the Wellcome Trust; the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales; and the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development.

Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00524-4

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#Netherlands, Avian #influenza confirmed in Hierden Duck #Farm (Min. Agriculture, Nov. 11 '26)

 

{Extract}

News item | 09-11-2026 | 21:09

    Bird flu has been detected at a meat duck farm in Hierden (municipality of Harderwijk, province of Gelderland). 

    To prevent the spread of the virus, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature (LVVN) has decided to have the approximately 70,000 animals at the location culled by the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA). 

    This farm in Hierden was previously culled twice in 2022 due to a bird flu outbreak.

    A restriction zone of 10 kilometers is established, consisting of a protection zone with a radius of 3 kilometers and a surveillance zone of 10 kilometers. 

    There are 2 poultry farms located in the 1-kilometer zone surrounding this contaminated location. 

    There are no other poultry farms in the 3-kilometer zone. There are 11 other poultry farms in the 10-kilometer zone.

    A transport ban applies immediately to the entire 10-kilometer zone. This means that no birds, hatching eggs, and/or consumption eggs may be transported from locations with birds in this zone. 

    A ban also applies to the disposal of bird manure and used bedding. These measures are necessary to prevent the spread to other parts of the country. Animals other than birds and their products may be transported to and from locations with birds, provided this is done in accordance with the strict conditions of the hygiene protocol.

    The location of the 10-kilometer zone can be seen on  the animal disease viewer of the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO).

(...)

Source: Netherlands' Ministry of Agriculture, https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2026/11/09/vogelgriep-vastgesteld-in-hierden

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#Australia, #H5 avian #influenza events in #wildlife (Dept. of Agriculture, Nov. 11 '26)

 

{Extract}

(...)

Event data

    As of 4pm AEST, 10 November 2026, Australia has 738 confirmed events of H5 bird flu in wildlife.

        § 10 in Western Australia (WA)

        § 342 in South Australia (SA)

        § 81 in New South Wales (NSW)

        § 2 in Queensland (QLD)

        § 249 in Victoria (VIC)

        § 53 in Tasmania (TAS)^

        § 1 in Other Territories#

    {^} Includes events on Macquarie Island

    {#} Jervis Bay Territory (Commonwealth jurisdiction)

(...)

Source: Australian Department of Health, https://www.agriculture.gov.au/campaigns/birdflu/latest-data#h1_bird_flu

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#Japan - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

 

{Extract}

(...)

A Wild Whooper Swan in the Hokkaido Region.

A Wild Large-Billed Crow in the Akita Region.

(...)

Source: World Animal Health Organization, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7940

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#Transmission #dynamics of #Nipah virus in #Bangladesh and India, 2001–2026: Systematic review and inference on reproduction number, offspring dispersion, and serial interval

 

Abstract

Background

Nipah virus (NiV) is a priority zoonotic pathogen causing high-fatality outbreaks. Early NiV outbreaks in Malaysia and Singapore had limited transmission beyond spillover events. However, since 2001, NiV outbreaks with person-to-person transmission have occurred in Bangladesh and India, driven by the NiV-Bangladesh genotype and NiV-India genotype. Our study aims to estimate the reproduction number, offspring dispersion, and serial interval governing NiV transmission in Bangladesh and India during 2001–2026.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of NiV outbreak investigations in Bangladesh and India, searching PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and grey literature through 28 February 2026. Case-level offspring counts from 27 sources (323 cases across 67 outbreaks) were used as input to a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial offspring distribution model. The serial interval was estimated by parametric distribution fitting to 137 transmission pairs. We conducted country-specific analysis and performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of estimates.

Results

Pooling across 67 outbreaks, we estimated a median reproduction number of 0.43 (95% CrI: 0.26–0.75), an offspring dispersion parameter of 0.04 (0.03–0.06), and a serial interval of 13.3 days (95% CI: 12.8–13.8). Country-specific median reproduction numbers were 0.47 (0.22–0.98) for India and 0.35 (0.19–0.63) for Bangladesh, and dispersion parameters were 0.03 (0.02–0.06) and 0.05 (0.03–0.09), respectively, indicating marked overdispersion in both settings.

Conclusion

NiV transmission is self-limiting on average and highly overdispersed, suggesting that a disproportionate share of onward transmission arises from a small number of cases. This epidemiological profile supports targeted containment measures, including contact tracing and quarantine, for effective NiV outbreak control.

Source: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0014876

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Cross #Protection against #Influenza #H5 Clade 2.3.4.4b Viruses after #H1N1pdm09 Infection

 

Abstract

We challenged ferrets previously infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus with H5N1 or H5N5 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses to assess cross-protection. Results show that previous A(H1N1)pdm09 virus immunity conferred partial protection against both viruses, with slightly reduced protection against H5N5 compared with H5N1, potentially reflecting the absence of cross-reactive N5 neuraminidase antibodies.

Source: Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid3212.261032

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#Bundibugyo Virus Disease #Outbreak in #DRC, #Kenya, #Nigeria - Weekly Report No. 25, Data as of 7 November 2026 (WHO, summary): 10,920 cases & 5,323 deaths in DRC

 

{Summary}

{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

Event description

    The Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic  of the Congo continues at a high, sustained level of transmission, with no sign of decline: close to 390 confirmed cases were added during the reporting  period and the national seven-day average has stayed between 65 and 67 cases per day. 

    Nord-Kivu now contributes almost as many cases as Ituri and accounts for the  entire increase observed over the last 21 days, while contact follow-up fell to  its lowest level in weeks at the end of the period. 

    The importation events in Kenya and Nigeria remain contained: no new case has been reported in Kenya since 19 October, six of the seven surviving  patients have been discharged and the last contacts will complete monitoring on  11 November, while no secondary case has been identified in Nigeria, where contact monitoring is expected to end on 13 November. 

    In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, insecurity in Beni health zone in  North Kivu and Bafwasende in Tshopo, health-worker strikes in Bas-Uélé and  Tshopo and the continued suspension of response activities in Bafwasende  constrain surveillance and response operations. 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

    As of 7 November 2026, the BVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has affected 67 health zones and 247 health areas across eight provinces; no new health zone was affected during the reporting period. 

    Since  External Situation Report #24, an additional 388 confirmed cases and 197 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 10 920 confirmed cases, including 5 323 confirmed deaths [crude case fatality ratio (CFR) 48.7%].

    Transmission remains highly heterogeneous across affected areas. Ituri  continues to account for the largest proportion of cumulative confirmed cases  (69.7%), although its relative contribution is declining, while Nord-Kivu (24.7% of  cumulative cases; CFR 54.8%) accounted for 46.1% of the cases reported  since the previous report, almost as many as Ituri (47.2%). 

    Transmission persists at lower levels in Haut-Uélé (4.9% of new cases),  Tshopo and Nord-Ubangi. 

    National daily incidence rose steadily from May to its highest levels in late July and mid-August, declined through late September and has fluctuated at  a high plateau since early October. 

    The seven-day moving average ranged between 65 and 67 confirmed cases  per day during the reporting period (64.7 on 7 November, compared with 67.0 on  1 November and a late-October high of 76), still well below the mid-August peak  of 94. 

    Provincial trends continue to diverge. Ituri continues its slow decline from  the late-July peak (seven-day average of 29 cases per day on 7 November, down  from 31 on 1 November and 38 on 19 October), while Nord-Kivu has risen to 31  cases per day (up from 30 on 1 November and 26 on 19 October) and exceeded  Ituri on several days of the period. Haut-Uélé remains stable at three to four cases per day, Tshopo reports sporadic cases (last case on 5 November) and Nord- Ubangi reported three further cases in Yakoma and Wapinda. Bas-Uélé, Sud-Kivu and Sud-Ubangi have reported no case in the last 21 days (Figures 1 and 2).

{Click on Image to Enlarge}

___

(...)

Kenya

    Since the previous report, Kenya has reported no new confirmed case of BVD. The cumulative total remains nine confirmed cases, including two deaths  (CFR 22.2%): the imported index case, who died on 5 October, and a 65-year-old family member who died on 23 October. 

    All eight secondary cases (four family members and four hospital staff)  belong to a single known chain of transmission, were epidemiologically linked to  the index case and were already under quarantine when they developed symptoms; no community spread has been detected. 

    The last confirmed case was reported on 19 October 2026. 

    On 6 November, day 32 since the first case was confirmed, the Ministry of  Health announced that a sixth patient had recovered and was being discharged  after testing negative and meeting all discharge criteria.; only one patient remains  under care and continues to be closely monitored. 

    The 42-day countdown to the end of the outbreak will start once this last  patient has recovered and been discharged.

    Of the nine confirmed cases, seven were male and two were female, with  ages ranging from 24 to 65 years. Designated isolation facilities have 211 isolation  beds (scalable to 241).

    A total of 135 contacts have been listed since the index case was  confirmed, comprising 46 airport staff, 45 hospital staff, 26 passengers, 14  relatives and four flight crew members. Of these, eight (5.9%) tested positive  for BVD during quarantine (four relatives and four hospital staff), one of  whom has died.

    Of the remaining 118 contacts, 66 had completed their 21 days of  monitoring and returned home by 6 November and the remaining 52 are expected  to complete quarantine by 11 November 2026.

(...)

Nigeria

    Nigeria has reported a single confirmed case of BVD, announced by the  Federal Ministry of Health on 20 October 2026 in the Federal Capital Territory,  Abuja. 

    The case, a 42-year-old woman, arrived in Abuja from Uganda via Addis  Ababa on 3 October, developed symptoms on 7 October and was admitted to a  private health facility on 11 October; the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and  Prevention (NCDC) was notified on 19 October and the National Reference  Laboratory confirmed the infection on 20 October. The patient was clinically stable  and, at the request of her country and with clearance from the Nigerian  authorities, was medically evacuated to Switzerland on 26 October 2026,  where she remains in isolation and under medical care in Geneva. 

    No additional confirmed case has been reported. As of 5 November 2026, a  cumulative 62 contacts linked to the index case had been identified,  categorized and followed up; none had developed symptoms, no new contact had  been identified, and seven contacts had completed the mandatory 21-day follow- up and left the quarantine facility, with the remaining contacts due to complete  follow-up on a staggered basis between 31 October and 13 November 2026. 

    Exposure remains confined to a single epidemiological cluster directly linked  to the index case. The 12-day interval between symptom onset and notification,  eight days of which were spent in private-facility care, remains the main concern for undetected exposures.

(...)

Situation interpretation

    The BVD outbreak remains at a critical juncture. In the Democratic  Republic of the Congo, transmission is not declining: close to 390 confirmed cases  and 200 deaths were added in one week, the national seven-day average has held  between 65 and 76 cases per day for five weeks, and the epicentre  continues to shift towards Nord-Kivu, which accounted for the entire 21-day  increase in cases (513 to 661) and deaths (250 to 322) and now reports as many  cases as Ituri each day. Beni, Mutwanga, Oicha, Mabalako and Kalunguta are the  health zones where transmission is intensifying most. At the same time, the  performance of the response weakened at the end of the period: contact follow-up  fell to 69.8% on 7 November, safe burial completion dropped to 85%, refusals  increased, and only half of investigated suspected cases are isolated within 24  hours. Insecurity in Beni, the suspension of activities in Bafwasende and health- worker strikes in Bas-Uélé and Tshopo further increase the risk of undetected  transmission. 

    The absence of new cases in Kenya since 19  October, the discharge of six  of the seven surviving patients and the imminent end of contact monitoring in  Kenya (11 November) and Nigeria (13 November) indicate that the exported  chains have been contained, although surveillance must be sustained until the  end-of-outbreak criteria are met. Priorities should focus on reinforcing response  capacity in Nord-Kivu, particularly in Beni, Mutwanga, Oicha and Mabalako, restoring contact follow-up and safe burial.

Source: World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, https://www.afro.who.int/countries/kenya/publication/bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-kenya-nigeria-weekly-external-situation

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#Germany - High pathogenicity avian #influenza #H5N1 viruses (Inf. with) ( #poultry ) - Immediate notification

 

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A poultry farm (geese (20), ducks (40), chicken (30)) in the Brandenburg Region.

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Source: World Animal Health Organization, https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7972

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