Abstract In November 2024, an adolescent female in British Columbia was hospitalized presenting with severe symptoms including respiratory failure due to infection with a novel H5N1 subtype influenza strain (BC24). Using cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM), we show here that the N169 α2,3-linked auto-glycan that is found in the sialic acid binding site of previously studied H5 hemagglutinin (HA) proteins is absent in purified BC24 HA protein , suggesting greatly reduced affinity for α2,3-linked sialosides . Glycan microarray analysis shows that the BC24 HA protein displays reduced or no binding not just to most α2,3-linked sialosides, but also to α2,6-linked sialosides . Full-length BC24 HA expressed in A549 lung alveolar carcinoma cells drives membrane fusion, albeit at significantly lower levels than previous H5 HA proteins, and post-infection sera from the patient display strong binding to BC24 HA and HA proteins from other influenza subtypes. The high virulence of the BC2...
Using an evolutionary #epidemiological #model of #pandemics to estimate the #infection #fatality ratio for #humans infected with avian #influenza viruses
Abstract The risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection to humans is challenging to estimate because many human avian influenza virus (AIV) infections are undetected as they may be asymptomatic , symptomatic but not tested , and as contact tracing is difficult because human-to-human spread is rare. We derive equations that consider the evolutionary mechanisms that give rise to pandemics and are parameterized to be consistent with records of past pandemics. We estimate that thousands of human AIV infections occur worldwide in an average year and estimate the infection fatality ratio as 32 deaths per 10,000 infections (95% confidence interval: [9.6, 75]). We estimate that preventing 20% of animal-to-human influenza spillovers annually would delay pandemic emergence by an average of 9.4 years . There is a high level of uncertainty in our estimates due to the few records of past pandemics, but even so this infection fatality ratio is comparable to SARS-CoV-2 during the recen...