Skip to main content

Estimating the #time of Highly Pathogenic Avian #Influenza virus #introduction into #USA #poultry flocks during the 2022/24 #epizootic

Image
By G.M.

Abstract

Following confirmation of the first case of the ongoing U.S. HPAI H5N1 epizootic in commercial poultry on February 8, 2022, the virus has continued to devastate the U.S. poultry sector and the pathogen has since managed to cross over to livestock and a few human cases have also been reported. Efficient outbreak management benefits greatly from timely detection and proper identification of the pathways of virus introduction and spread. In this study, we used changes in mortality rates as a proxy for HPAI incidence in a layer, broiler and turkey flock together with diagnostic test results to infer within-flock HPAI transmission dynamics. Mathematical modeling techniques, specifically the Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm in conjunction with a stochastic within-flock HPAI transmission model were used in the analysis. The time window of HPAI virus introduction into the flock (TOI) and the adequate contact rate (ACR) were estimated. Then, using the estimated TOI together with the day when the first HPAI positive sample was collected from the flock, we calculated the most likely time to first positive sample (MTFPS) which reflects the time to HPAI detection. The estimated joint (i.e., all species combined) median of the MTFPS for different flocks was six days, the joint median most likely ACR was 6.8 newly infected birds per infectious bird per day, the joint median R0 was 13 and the joint median number of test days per flock was two. These results were also grouped by species and by epidemic phase and discussed accordingly. We conclude that this findings from this and other related studies are beneficial for the different stakeholders in outbreak management. We recommend that combining TOI analysis with complementary approaches such as phylogenetic analyses is critically important for improved understanding of disease transmission pathways. The estimated parameters can also be used to parametrize mathematical models that can guide the design of surveillance protocols, risk analyses of HPAI spread, and emergency preparedness for HPAI outbreaks.

Source: PLOS One, LINK

____

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

#Neuroinvasive #Oropouche virus in a patient with #HIV from extra-Amazonian #Brazil

By G.M.
{Excerpt} A novel reassortant Oropouche virus (OROV) lineage (with medium [M], large [L], and small [S] RNA segments : M1L2S2) has driven Brazil's largest and most geographically widespread OROV epidemic , expanding beyond the endemic Amazon basin to establish local transmission across multiple Brazilian states and other previously unaffected Latin American countries . The rapid spread of this lineage underscores its evolutionary potential and reinforces its significance as a public health threat .1 Similar to chikungunya and Zika viruses, expanding arboviruses can exhibit unexpected clinical and epidemiological shifts , including vertical transmissions , neuroinvasive effects, and potentially fatal outcomes.2–4 Although OROV typically causes self-limited febrile illness, accumulating clinical and experimental evidence suggests neurotropic potential .5 This Correspondence describes the first confirmed case of neuroinvasive OROV infection caused by the emergent M1L2S2 lineage in ext...
Post a Comment
Read more »

Stability of #influenza viruses in the #milk of #cows and #sheep

By G.M.
Abstract In late 2023, H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAIV) started circulating in dairy cattle in the USA . High viral titres were detected in milk from infected cows , raising concerns about onwards human infections . Although pasteurisation was shown to effectively inactivate influenza viruses in milk, unpasteurised milk still poses a risk of infection, both from occupational exposure in dairies and from the consumption of raw milk. We therefore assessed how long influenza viruses could remain infectious for in milk without heat inactivation. We examined the stability of a panel of influenza viruses in milk , including a contemporary H5N1 HPAIV and a variety of other influenza A and D viruses. We incubated viruses in cows' milk under laboratory conditions : at room temperature to simulate exposure in dairies and at 4°C to simulate exposure to refrigerated raw milk. Following an isolated report of H5N1 viral RNA being detected in milk from a sheep in the UK , we also c...
Post a Comment
Read more »

#Evidence of #Viremia in Dairy #Cows Naturally Infected with #Influenza A {#H5N1} Virus, #California, #USA

By G.M.
Abstract We confirmed influenza A virus (IAV) by PCR in serum from 18 cows on 3 affected dairy farms in California, USA . Our findings indicate the presence of viremia and might help explain IAV transmission dynamics and shedding patterns in cows. An understanding of those dynamics could enable development of IAV mitigation strategies. Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/7/25-0134_article ____
Post a Comment
Read more »