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Showing posts from September 19, 2025

RAPID #RISK #ASSESSMENT: #EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE, DRC (#WHO, September 19 '25)

  {Summary} Overall risk and confidence Overall risk -- National: High  -- Regional: Moderate    -- Global: Low    Confidence in available information  -- National: Moderate -- Regional: Moderate -- Global: Moderate Risk statement On 1 September 2025, WHO received an alert from the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) regarding suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Bulape Health Zone , Kasai Province , DRC.  The first currently known suspected EVD case was admitted to the Bulape General Reference Hospital on 20 August 2025 and reported to have died five days later (25 August 2025). This is a 34-year-old female patient with a 34-week gestational age who presented with fever, bloody diarrhoea, followed by anal, oral, and nasal haemorrhage, vomiting , and asthenia .  She reportedly died on 25 August 2025, with a clinical picture of multiple organ failure.  Two of the contacts of this first case (a m...

#Syndromic approach for rapid #detection and differentiation of #human pathogenic #alphaviruses

  Highlights •  Most vector-borne viruses like alphaviruses are not included in routine diagnostics •  Lack of testing results in misdiagnoses and underdetection •  A new multiplexed real-time PCR assay detects all human pathogenic alphaviruses •  The new multiplex assay is more sensitive than available tests and highly specific •  The multiplex test can be applied broadly for diagnostics and molecular surveillance Abstract Background Knowledge of epidemiology, pathogenesis, and public health burden is scarce for many arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Insufficient knowledge is partly due to lack of exhaustive laboratory diagnostics due to resource limitations . Among arboviruses , arthritogenic and encephalitogenic alphaviruses are globally widespread, can cause severe disease, and can co-occur regionally. Objectives We developed and validated a multiplexed real-time reverse transcription-PCR assay for the detection of all alphaviruses commonly causing...

#Modeling and #Analysis of SIRR Model (#Ebola #Transmission Dynamics Model) with Delay Differential Equation

  Abstract Background Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and often fatal illness with high transmission potential and recurring outbreaks . Traditional compartmental models often neglect biologically important delays , such as the latent period before an infected individual becomes infectious, limiting their ability to capture real-world epidemic patterns. Including such delays can provide a more accurate understanding of outbreak persistence and control strategies. Methods In this study, we develop and analyze a novel deterministic SIRR model that captures the complex transmission dynamics of Ebola by explicitly combining nonlinear incidence rates with a delay differential equation framework . Unlike traditional models, this approach integrates a biologically motivated delay to represent the latent period before infectiousness, providing a more realistic depiction of disease spread. The basic reproduction number (R0) is derived using the next-generation matrix, and local stabil...

#USA, #Wastewater Data for Avian #Influenza #H5 (CDC, September 19 '25)

  {Summary} Time Period: September 07, 2025 - September 13, 2025 -- H5 Detection :  3 sites ( 0.7% ) -- No Detection :  401 sites ( 99.3% ) -- No samples in last week :  57 sites (...) Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,  https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/wwd-h5.html ____

Intensive #reassortment and frequent #intercontinental #transmission revealed by long-term genetic analysis of #H10 avian #influenza viruses in #Taiwan

  ABSTRACT H10 subtype avian influenza viruses primarily circulate among wild waterfowl but can occasionally infect mammals , including humans , and recent sporadic human cases have raised significant public health concerns . In this study, we sequenced and analysed 59 H10 subtype viruses isolated from wild birds in Taiwan . Results showed that all isolates were genetically distinct from human and other mammalian H10 subtype isolates. Taiwanese isolates exhibited high genetic diversity and could be categorized into 34 distinct genotypes , with each genotype circulating only in a single migratory season and not recurring during subsequent seasons. Additional analyses revealed that certain gene pools frequently circulate in the Pacific Rim , with evidence of North American lineage genes establishing long-term populations in Eurasia and vice versa. Although no characteristics indicative of mammalian adaptation was found in the Taiwanese isolates, temporal changes in the haemagglutinin...