ETIDIOH - NEW

  {By Charles J. Sharp - Own work, from Sharp Photography, sharpphotography.co.uk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=116380120 } Nineteen captive Painted Storks in the National Zoological Park, Delhi. Source: WOAH,  https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/6803 ____

  Abstract Since 2015, French poultry production is threatened almost every year by a reintroduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses . The duck sector was the most concerned by this crisis but other sectors such as broiler, layer and turkey were also affected by outbreaks. The objective of this work was to assess the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus transmission from one farm to another within the French broiler and layer production network. This study used the WOAH risk assessment framework . After drawing up a scenario tree of virus transmission from one farm to another, data were collected through a literature review or through experts elicitation. Three questionnaires were developed according to the experts field of expertise: avian influenza, broiler and layer sectors. The experts estimates were combined using a beta distribution weighted by their confidence level. A Monte Carlo iteration process was used to combine the different probabilities...