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Showing posts from November 28, 2025

Unprecedented high level of highly pathogenic avian #influenza in wild #birds in #Europe during the 2025 autumn #migration

  Abstract Between 6 September and 14 November 2025, 1,443 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) virus detections were reported in wild birds across 26 countries in Europe . This number was four times higher than in the same period in 2024 and the highest overall for those weeks since at least 2016 . Almost all the detections ( 99% ) were due to HPAI A(H5N1) viruses, and most of them belonged to EA-2024-DI.2.1, a new sub-lineage of the EA-2024-DI.2 genotype . These HPAI virus detections in wild birds involved increasing numbers of waterfowl species (ducks, geese and swans) that were found positive in large parts of Europe . In addition, high numbers of common cranes were affected across a wide band stretching from northeast to southwest Europe . Given the unprecedented high circulation of HPAI virus in the wild bird population compared to previous years, and the associated high environmental contamination , strict biosecurity measures and early detection of infected poultr...

The #epidemiology of #chikungunya virus in #Brazil and the potential #impact of #vaccines: a mathematical modelling study

  Summary Background The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) vaccine is now licensed in Brazil, the country that reports the most cases of CHIKV globally ; however, the optimal use of the vaccine remains unclear owing to a poor understanding of CHIKV epidemiology and population immunity . We aimed to combine the distribution of cases and deaths reported since 2014 with seroprevalence studies to inform mathematical models that estimate the underlying rates of infection by state and year, and the underlying patterns of disease and death by age and sex. Methods We quantified the annual CHIKV infection and disease burden between 2014 and 2024 in each of the 27 federative units of Brazil using a mathematical model in a Bayesian framework that integrated serological surveys (n=12) and confirmed CHIKV disease cases (n=488 234) and CHIKV deaths (n=1719) reported between January, 2014, and September, 2024. Using this base, we estimated the potential impact of a vaccine over the period 2025–29 h...