Overall global risk and confidence*
Overall risk: Global - Moderate
Confidence in available information: Global - Low
Overall risk statement
As of mid-2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 has changed from high to moderate, with declining deaths and hospitalizations since 2022 due to high population immunity, improved clinical management, and similar virulence.
Most SARSCoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages, which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity.
Nonetheless, surveillance gaps, reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting, especially from low- and middle-income countries, undermine accurate risk assessment.
SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely, as indicated by sentinel testing and wastewater surveillance, often co-circulating with influenza and RSV.
PostCOVID-19 condition is estimated to affect around 6% of symptomatic cases, with reduced risk in vaccinated individuals.
WHO encourages integration of COVID-19 monitoring into broader respiratory disease surveillance systems and recommends ongoing vaccination of high-risk populations.
While available vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death even in light of variant emergence, global vaccine uptake among high-risk groups was low in 2024, raising concerns amid continued virus evolution.
Overall, while the direct impact of COVID-19 has lessened, ongoing circulation and virus evolution – both in human populations and established animal reservoirs, low vaccine uptake, and insufficient burden and genomic surveillance data contribute to uncertainty, requiring continued vigilance.
{*} Confidence refers to the level of confidence in the data/information or the quality of the evidence available at the time the RRA is conducted. Poor quality information may increase the overall perceived risk due to the incertitude in the assessment.
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Supporting information
Virus origins
The Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) is composed of independent scientific experts whose role is to advise WHO on technical and scientific considerations regarding emerging and reemerging pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2.
SAGO published its independent assessment of SARS-CoV-2 origins on 27 June 2025.
While available information is insufficient to definitively conclude the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the report includes two main hypotheses:
-- introduction from a natural zoonotic source(s) as a spillover event(s) either directly to humans from wild animals or through an intermediate host, or
-- an accidental laboratory-related event, which may have involved exposure to the virus during field research or a breach in laboratory biosafety procedures.
SAGO has also developed a global framework to define and guide studies on the origins of emerging and reemerging pathogens of epidemic and pandemic potential, published in February 2025 and outlining a structured approach for investigating the origins of a novel pathogen.
Virus evolution and variants
Omicron, the last designated variant of concern (VOC), has accounted for 97% of all submitted sequences since January 2022. Omicron has diversified considerably, giving rise to more than 2800 descendent lineages.
All Omicron descendent lineages share similar phenotypic characteristics, namely higher transmissibility due to immune escape properties and lower apparent disease severity as compared to pre-Omicron variants.
WHO continuously updates its tracking system and definitions for variants of SARS-CoV-2 to reflect the current global variant landscape.
At present, WHO is monitoring one designated variant of interest (VOI), JN.1, and six designated variants under monitoring (VUMs): KP.3, KP.3.1.1, XEC, LP.8.1, NB.1.8.1 and XFG, all descendent lineages of JN.1.
Between epidemiological weeks ending on 8 June 2025 and 29 June 2025 the VOI JN.1 decreased in proportion from 9.4% to 6.6%.
During the same period, the VUM XFG increased from 23.3% to 39.1%, NB.1.8.1 increased from 28.7% to 35.5%, LP.8.1 decreased from 25.7 to 11.1, XEC decreased from 4.5% to 2.8%, KP.3 decreased from 0.7% to 0.4%, and KP.3.1.1 remained stable at 2.1%.
Risk evaluations on the current VOI and VUMs indicate they do not pose additional public health risks as compared to other currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages.
With declining prevalence of VOIs, and VUMs increasingly unable to meet the VOI definition, WHO, on 29 November 2024, began conducting risk evaluations for VUM designations in addition to VOI designations.
With declining prevalence of VOIs, and VUMs increasingly unable to meet the VOI definition, WHO, on 29 November 2024, began conducting risk evaluations for VUM designations in addition to VOI designations.
Despite advances in sequencing capacity made during the pandemic, low, unrepresentative levels of genomic sequencing and sharing pose significant challenges to the assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 variant landscape.
84% of WHO MS had capacity to sequence for SARS-CoV-2 and 94% had access to timely sequencing either internally or via international reference laboratories as of 31 December 2023.
Between January and June 2025, a total of 88 903 sequences were shared globally by 91 countries. This marks a substantial decline compared to 462 676 sequences shared by 146 countries during the same period in 2024. While a decline in SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing is expected compared to the early pandemic years, the current low volume of sequences also reflects limited geographic representation—primarily from high income countries – with significant delays in sequencing and data sharing from the time of sample collection.
Representative levels of genomic sequencing and sharing in a timely manner are essential for adequate, robust monitoring of existing SARS-CoV-2 variants and early detection and rapid assessment of emerging ones.
WHO urges MS to maintain public reporting and publishing of genetic sequences with relevant meta-data.
The Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE) continues to meet as needed to assess available evidence on circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Previously specific to SARS-CoV-2, TAG-VE now has broadened its terms of reference to include other viruses, including monkeypox virus (MPXV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).
Complementing the work of TAG-VE, the Technical Advisory Group on COVID19 Vaccine Composition (TAG-CO-VAC) also continues to meet regularly to assess the impact of changing variant circulation in the context of determining COVID-19 vaccine composition recommendations, as further described in below vaccine-related sections.
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Mortality
As of 29 June 2025, over seven million confirmed deaths had been reported globally to WHO.
The number of weekly reported COVID-19-related deaths has been steadily declining, now consistently below 2000 since February 2024, a level comparable to March 2020.
This is a significant decrease compared to previous periods, such as the 10 000 average deaths reported per week during the first half of 2023 and the over 35 000 during the first half of 2022.
Similar to case reporting, the weekly average number of countries reporting death data has declined significantly from 173 countries in the first half of 2022 to 114 and 76 in the same periods of 2023 and 2024, respectively.
In the first half of 2025 (as of 29 June), over 16 600 deaths were reported from 42 countries, averaging 640 deaths per week across 40 countries.
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Source: World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-global-risk-assessment-v8
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