Long Term Rapid #Risk #Assessment, Acute Event of Potential Public Health Concern: #COVID19, Global (#WHO, Feb. 3 '26, summary)

 

{Summary}

Overall risk statement

-- At the end of 2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 remained moderate, following the declining deaths and hospitalizations in 2022 due to high population immunity, improved clinical management, and similar virulence and characterized by sustained stability in severity indicators—including ICU admissions and in hospital mortality—throughout the following years. 

-- Most SARS-CoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages, which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity compared to other Omicron sublineages. 

-- Nonetheless, continued surveillance gaps, reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting, especially from low- and middle-income countries, undermine a more informed risk assessment at this time. 

-- SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely, as indicated by sentinel surveillance under GISRS and wastewater surveillance, co-circulating with seasonal influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). 

-- Post COVID-19 condition is estimated to affect around 6% of symptomatic cases, with reduced risk in vaccinated individuals. 

-- WHO has developed the Strategic Plan for Coronavirus Disease Threat Management (2025–2030) which continues to encourage integration of COVID19 into broader respiratory disease surveillance systems and recommend vaccination of populations at high-risk of severe disease. 

-- While available vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death despite continued variant evolution, global vaccine uptake among high-risk groups was very low in 2025. 

-- Overall, while the direct impact of COVID-19 has lessened since 2022, ongoing circulation and virus evolution in human populations and established animal reservoirs, low vaccine uptake, and insufficient burden and genomic surveillance data contribute to continued uncertainty, requiring constant vigilance. 

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Mortality 

-- As of 28 December 2025, over seven million confirmed deaths had been reported globally to WHO. 

-- The number of weekly reported COVID-19-related deaths has been steadily declining, now consistently below 2000 since February 2024. 

-- This is a significant decrease compared to previous periods, such as the 6 000 average deaths reported per week in 2023 and the over 24 000 in 2022. 

-- Similar to case reporting, the weekly average number of countries (including areas and territories) reporting at least one death has declined from 222 in 2022 to 157 and 74 in the same periods of 2023 and 2024, respectively.   

-- In 2025 (as of 28 December), 26 424 deaths were reported from 46 countries, averaging 510 deaths across 38 countries per week. 

-- Since the beginning of 2024, global reporting of COVID-19 deaths has been predominantly driven by countries in the Region of the Americas and the European Region. 

-- It is important to note that absence of official reporting to WHO does not imply that COVID-19 related deaths are not occurring in non-reporting countries. 

-- The overall decline in reported deaths coincides with a reduction in the number of countries reporting, limiting the interpretation of global trends due to decreased geographic and income level representativeness. 

-- As a result, it is difficult to determine with certainty whether the observed decline reflects a true decrease at global level. 

-- However, data from mainly high-income countries that have maintained consistent surveillance and reporting indicate a continued downward trend in deaths, likely reflecting increased population-level immunity due to infections and vaccination. 

-- As an indicator of severity, data collected from countries reporting both hospitalizations and deaths showed a decreasing trend in number of deaths per 1000 hospitalizations in February 2021, when it was 246 deaths per 1000 hospitalizations, to under 100 deaths per 1000 hospitalizations as of the end of July 2022. 

-- Since mid-2022, this indicator has remained generally stable, with fluctuations between 30 to 100 deaths per 1000 hospitalizations. 

-- While the causes for these changes cannot be directly interpreted from data available due to their non-representative nature, they are likely due to a combination of increases in infection- and/or vaccinederived immunity, improvements in early diagnosis and clinical care, reduced strain on health systems, change in the surveillance systems and other factors. 

-- It is not possible to infer a decreased or increased intrinsic virulence of newer SARS-CoV-2 variants from these data.  

-- Nevertheless, the reported figures are an underestimate of the true death toll, which has been estimated by several groups, including WHO. (35) 

-- It is worth highlighting that most countries do not differentiate COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations between those directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 and those testing positive for the virus incidentally. 

-- The population aged 65 years and over, and those who are not vaccinated, continue to be most at risk of severe disease and death. 

-- In 2025, 37 countries from the African Region, the Region of the Americas, the European Region and the Western Pacific Region reported deaths with age information which represents a decrease from 42 countries across the Region of the Americas, European Region and Western Pacific Region in 2024. 

-- Information on age was available for 25 039 deaths, representing 95% of the total 26 424 reported deaths in 2025. 

-- The population 65 years and over constituted 88% of all deaths during 2025. 

-- While similar to the figure reported in 2024, it nevertheless represents the highest proportion of deaths attributed to a single age group since the beginning of the pandemic. 

-- Those aged 15 to 64 years constituted 11.7% of all deaths, presenting a slight increase from 11.3% compared to 2024. 

-- These data were consistently provided by the Region of the Americas and the European Region. 

-- When compared, the proportion of deaths among those aged 15 to 64 were higher in the Region of the Americas (13%) than the European Region (5.8%). 

-- In 2025, less than 1% (n=187) of reported deaths occurred among children under 15 years of age – a consistent trend since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

-- However, a more detailed look reveals that 154 out of 187 (82%) deaths occurred in children under five years old, indicating that this age group remains the most vulnerable compared to older children. 

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Source: 

Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-global-risk-assessment--version-9

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