Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from January 22, 2026

Using an evolutionary #epidemiological #model of #pandemics to estimate the #infection #fatality ratio for #humans infected with avian #influenza viruses

  Abstract The risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza infection to humans is challenging to estimate because many human avian influenza virus (AIV) infections are undetected as they may be asymptomatic , symptomatic but not tested , and as contact tracing is difficult because human-to-human spread is rare. We derive equations that consider the evolutionary mechanisms that give rise to pandemics and are parameterized to be consistent with records of past pandemics. We estimate that thousands of human AIV infections occur worldwide in an average year and estimate the infection fatality ratio as 32 deaths per 10,000 infections (95% confidence interval: [9.6, 75]). We estimate that preventing 20% of animal-to-human influenza spillovers annually would delay pandemic emergence by an average of 9.4 years . There is a high level of uncertainty in our estimates due to the few records of past pandemics, but even so this infection fatality ratio is comparable to SARS-CoV-2 during the recen...

Immune history confers #antibody - and T cell-dependent cross-protection against highly pathogenic avian #influenza #H5N1 viruses

  ABSTRACT The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian H5 influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4b in cattle has spread across the United States . Mice with pre-existing immunity to H1N1 virus or with a live-attenuated influenza vaccine showed protection against a lethal bovine-derived HPAI H5N1 viral challenge . Notably, ferrets with mixed immunity also demonstrated protection against a feline-derived H5N1 virus, independent of cross-reactive neutralization titers , but antibodies to whole virus were observed. To investigate protective factors, we conducted T cell epitope mapping using published H1N1 viral sequences and found high conservation of key T cell epitopes in the bovine HPAI H5N1 strain . Depletion of T cells in mice prior to and during primary H1N1 infection impacted cross-protective antibodies to H5N1 virus, with CD4 depletion increasing mortality and CD8 depletion mildly impacting morbidity upon H5N1 viral challenge. This underscores the need to investigate memory T cell responses...

Integrating #Prevention and #Response at the Crossroads of #Henipavirus #Preparedness, Hendra@30 Conference, 2024

  Abstract Diseases caused by henipaviruses, exemplified by Hendra virus and Nipah virus, pose a serious risk to public health because of their epidemic potential and high case-fatality rates and the paucity of medical countermeasures to mitigate them. In December 2024, a group of 150 scientists from 16 countries convened in Geelong, Victoria, Australia, to mark the 30th anniversary of the discovery of Hendra virus . The Hendra@30 conference built upon its predecessor conference held in 2019 in Singapore, Nipah@20, by expanding its program across broader disciplines and integrating sessions on human sociology and disease ecology into the main scientific discussions. We describe key highlights from Hendra@30 and reflect on 4 key elements that have advanced henipavirus research and medical countermeasures research and development. We propose that integrating bat ecology into henipavirus research blueprints will enable development of ecologic countermeasures that prevent spillover and...

#Finland - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

  A wild mute swan in Etelä-Suomen aluehallintovirasto Region. Source:  Link:  https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7213 ____

#Poland - #Influenza A #H5N1 viruses of high pathogenicity (Inf. with) (non-poultry including wild birds) (2017-) - Immediate notification

A wild mute swan.  Last outbreak in wild birds in Podkarpackie region was confirmed in February 2025. Source:  Link:  https://wahis.woah.org/#/in-review/7215 ____

Detection of Avian #Influenza #H5–Specific #Antibodies by Chemiluminescent Assays

  Abstract We evaluated 2 electrochemiluminescence serologic assays to detect avian influenza H5 antibodies . Both assays identified H5 antibodies from both serum and dried blood spots and had strong specificity and minimal cross-reactivity in human and avian samples. Such assays can support populationwide serologic surveys aimed at assessing population-level immunity. Source:  Link:  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/32/1/25-1117_article ____

Emerging Respiratory #Virus #Threats from #Influenza D and Canine #Coronavirus HuPn-2018

  Abstract In 2009 and again in 2019, public health warnings were confirmed by the emergence, rapid widespread transmission, and lethality of novel influenza and coronaviruses . The world continues to suffer disease from these respiratory viruses. Two newly recognized emergent respiratory viruses, influenza D and canine coronavirus HuPn-2018 , have been shown to have considerable potential for causing future human epidemics , but diagnostics and surveillance for the viruses are lacking. We reviewed data regarding influenza D virus and coronavirus canine coronavirus HuPn-2018 . Those data strongly indicate that these viruses are major newly recognized threats . However, little is being done to respond to or prevent disease associated with these viruses, warranting the question of whether we will learn from previous pandemics. Source:  Link:  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/32/1/25-1764_article ____

#Milk as a #Transmission Vehicle for Highly Pathogenic Avian #Influenza #H5N1

Abstract Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) (H5N1 hereafter) is an emerging pathogen in mammals . The recent recognition of H5N1 in dairy cattle increases opportunities for human exposure and infection and may accelerate a trajectory toward sustained human-to-human transmission . Furthermore, the presence of virus at high concentration in unpasteurized milk raises new risks for humans , especially infants and children . Milk has been identified as a vehicle for viral transmission in and between mammalian species, including humans. Sialic acids (SAs) found on cell surfaces are important mediators of species susceptibility to specific influenza strains and play an important role in viral tropism . New data demonstrate that SA receptors with α2,3 linkages capable of binding avian influenza strains are present in human mammary tissue . The presence of SA receptors that can bind avian influenza and a comparative analysis of viral transmission risk of raw and pasteurized milk in seve...

From #pandemic #influenza to novel #coronaviruses: emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century

  Highlights •  Global mobility, climate pressures, and ecological change drive emerging infections. •  Highly pathogenic influenza strains, including H5N1, pose ongoing spillover risks and pandemic potential. •  SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 illustrate the pandemic potential of novel coronaviruses. •  Nipah, Ebola, Pteropine orthoreovirus and Zika remain high-impact threats for global health security. •  Mass gatherings can amplify transmission risks of emerging high-consequence viruses. •  Strengthened surveillance, diagnostics, and One Health strategies are essential for pandemic preparedness. Abstract Emerging infectious diseases have risen significantly in the twenty-first century as ecological disruption, climate change, expanding human–animal interfaces , and global mobility intensify opportunities for pathogen transmission . This review synthesizes historical and contemporary evidence across viral, bacterial, fungal, and parasitic threats to charact...