Spatiotemporal #clustering of highly pathogenic avian #influenza (HPAI) #H5N1 at the wild #waterfowl - #poultry interface: Vector-specific #spillover risks in the #US, 2022–2025
Abstract Background : The emergence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in North America , beginning in February 2022, has highlighted the dynamic, unpredictable, and regionally variable risk of infections . Studies are needed to assess the spatiotemporal clustering of HPAI H5 at the interface between wild waterfowl and commercial poultry to understand and mitigate this risk . Methods : Publicly available data on HPAI H5 detections in wild birds and commercial poultry from January 2022 to January 2026 were analyzed at the county level. Retrospective space-time permutation models were used to identify and scan for clusters with higher than expected detection rates. Results : A total of 17,091 HPAI H5 detections were reported in wild birds across 1,467 county-level locations. Four species , Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) (2,848 detections, 16.66%), Canada goose ( Branta canadensis ) (1,496, 8.75%), Green-winged teal ( An...